Key Stats for Lowe’s Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -3%
- 52-Week Range: $206 to $281
- Valuation Model Target Price: $289
- Implied Upside: 8.3% over 2.0 years
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What Happened?
Lowe’s Companies stock slipped about 3% over the past week, ending lower after struggling to attract sustained buying interest and trading below recent highs.
The weakness reflected continued caution around near-term home improvement demand, particularly for larger discretionary renovation projects.
Higher interest rates and slower housing turnover remain a headwind for big-ticket spending, keeping pressure on sentiment across the home improvement space.
Analyst activity during the period remained active but mixed. JPMorgan Chase & Co. maintained an Overweight rating with a $300 price target, while Evercore ISI kept a $280 target, reflecting confidence in Lowe’s longer-term earnings power.
At the same time, firms such as Mizuho, which lowered its target to $272, and Oppenheimer, which reduced its target to $315, highlighted uncertainty around the timing of a demand recovery. That divergence kept valuation in focus rather than providing a near-term catalyst.
Attention is now shifting toward Lowe’s upcoming earnings report, where updates on comparable sales trends, Pro demand, and free cash flow generation could reset expectations.
Last week’s pullback appears driven by cautious positioning rather than a single negative headline, as investors reassessed the stock’s near-term outlook.
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Is Lowe’s Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 4.8%
- Operating Margins: 12.2%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 18.2x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $289, implying 8.3% total upside from recent levels over the next 2.0 years.
Over the next year, results are likely shaped by how effectively Lowe’s stabilizes comparable sales as home improvement demand gradually normalizes and larger project activity recovers from a slow housing cycle.
Margin performance remains closely linked to pricing discipline, supply chain efficiency, and mix improvements in Pro and installation services, which tend to generate steadier volumes and stronger profitability.
Cash flow execution remains central, as Lowe’s ability to sustain buybacks and dividends depends on inventory control and operating leverage in a softer revenue environment.
Lowe’s appears undervalued at current levels, with future performance more likely driven by execution and demand stabilization than by a near-term valuation re-rating.
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