Key Stats for Intuit Stock
- Price Change for Intuit stock: -6.4%
- $INTU Share Price as of Jan. 14: $567
- 52-Week High: $814
- $INTU Share Price Target: $793
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What Happened?
Intuit (INTU) stock got hammered on Wednesday, dropping nearly 6% after a wave of analyst downgrades hit the TurboTax and QuickBooks maker heading into tax season.
Wells Fargo delivered the biggest blow, downgrading Intuit stock from “Overweight” to “Equal Weight” and slashing its price target from $840 to $700.
Analyst Michael Turrin warned that last year’s “robust rebound in tax” would be a tough act to follow, pointing to elevated expectations and difficult year-over-year comparisons as major headwinds for 2026.
Goldman Sachs piled on by initiating coverage with a “Neutral” rating and a $720 price target. Analyst Gabriela Borges acknowledged that AI adoption should boost Intuit’s addressable market, but said she’s waiting to see concrete evidence of market share gains in assisted tax before getting more bullish on the stock.
The downgrades came at an awkward time. The IRS announced this week that the 2026 filing season kicks off January 26, with taxpayers having until April 15 to file.
The IRS expects about 164 million individual returns, most filed electronically. Tax season is Intuit’s Super Bowl, accounting for a large share of its annual revenue.
Intuit reported solid first-quarter results back in November, with revenue jumping to $3.89 billion from $3.28 billion a year earlier.
Net profit more than doubled to $446 million from $197 million. But the company’s second-quarter profit guidance came in below Wall Street expectations, even as it projected 14% to 15% revenue growth.
CFO Sandeep Aujla tried to reassure investors during the earnings call, saying:
“We are confident in delivering double-digit revenue growth and expanding margins this year.”
The problem is that analysts don’t think that’s good enough after the blowout 2025 Intuit just delivered.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Intuit Stock
The downgrades reflect a straightforward concern: Intuit crushed it in 2025, and now the bar is set impossibly high for 2026.
Last tax season was a major win for Intuit.
- The company grew overall tax revenue at double digits and saw a stunning 47% surge in assisted tax, its premium offering where customers get help from live tax professionals.
- Intuit expanded from 400 local service centers to 600 and opened roughly 20 retail storefronts.
- The local strategy worked brilliantly, driving 5x better conversion rates when customers knew there was a tax preparer within 50 miles.
Wells Fargo’s Turrin is betting that kind of explosive growth won’t repeat in 2026. The company already captured a lot of low-hanging fruit with its localization push and aggressive marketing to expand brand awareness beyond DIY tax prep. Squeezing out similar gains this year will be much tougher.
The assisted tax market is massive at $37 billion, dwarfing the $5 billion DIY market. Intuit has barely scratched the surface of converting the 88 million Americans who still use traditional tax preparers.
But pulling customers away from established relationships takes time, and the competitive landscape is heating up. H&R Block just raised its full-year forecast and saw its stock jump over 3%, signaling the legacy players aren’t going down without a fight.
Intuit stock is also facing questions about its AI strategy. The company announced a partnership with OpenAI to embed TurboTax and Credit Karma experiences into ChatGPT.
The idea is to meet customers where they are, tapping into OpenAI’s 800 million weekly active users. CFO Aujla framed it as a new marketing channel that could drive “meaningful” customer acquisition without changing unit economics or data governance.
On the small business side, Intuit is pushing hard into the mid-market with its Intuit Enterprise Suite (IES).
The product targets companies making $10 million to $100 million in revenue, a $1.7 million business market opportunity.
Contracts jumped 50% from Q4 to Q1, and the company is scaling its 250-person sales force. But IES has only been on the market for 14 months, so it’s still early days.
Mailchimp remains the problem child. Intuit has struggled with product-market fit for smaller customers and is betting that improvements to onboarding and feature discoverability will turn things around. Management expects to see real traction in February and March after the holiday season ends.
Intuit is using AI to drive $135 million in customer success savings this fiscal year and boost developer productivity by over 30%.
The company is targeting 40% to 60% of expenses going toward its three big bets: done-for-you experiences, end-to-end money solutions, and unlocking the mid-market.
That discipline should support continued margin expansion even as the company invests aggressively in growth.
But none of that matters if Intuit can’t deliver the kind of tax season results Wall Street now expects after last year’s monster performance.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
