Key Takeaways
- Innio shares rose 10% today after the company reported its first $1 billion revenue quarter, beat estimates and raised its 2026 guidance.
- Innio’s $8.0 billion equipment backlog grew 142% in a year on data center orders and is about double the revenue it expects this year.
- Data center equipment revenue grew from $38 million to $463 million in a year, and each engine Innio delivers feeds a services business with a 31.7% margin.
- Analysts’ $3.87 billion estimate for 2026 revenue is now below Innio’s new guidance, so estimates look likely to rise.
Innio (INIO) stock is up 10% today after the company reported its first $1 billion quarter and raised its 2026 guidance before the open.
But the bigger story is the $8.0 billion order backlog behind it.
TIKR tracks 10 analysts on Innio. How many say “Buy”?
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What exactly happened
Innio’s third quarter beat across the board:
- Revenue rose 57% to $1.17 billion, against the $1.04 billion analysts expected.
- Adjusted EPS was $0.15, against $0.12 expected.
- Adjusted EBITDA jumped 70% to $245 million, a 21.0% margin, up from 19.4% a year ago.
- Innio raised its 2026 guidance by $100 million to $3.9 billion to $4.0 billion of revenue, and by $60 million to $780 million to $800 million of adjusted EBITDA.
An $8.0 billion head start
Innio’s equipment backlog hit $8.0 billion at the end of September, up 142% from $3.3 billion a year earlier. That’s roughly double the revenue it expects for all of 2026.
Data centers are doing the heavy lifting. Innio’s gas engines let a data center make its own power on site instead of waiting years for a grid connection, and its data center equipment revenue went from $38 million in last year’s third quarter to $463 million this quarter.
“With more than $6 billion in Equipment Order Intake year-to-date, we are scaling capacity to meet accelerating demand, particularly for AI infrastructure,” said Dr. Olaf Berlien, Innio’s president and CEO.
Analysts already expected revenue to keep climbing well past this year.
Those estimates came out before the report, and the 2026 figure of $3.87 billion is now below the bottom of Innio’s new range. I’d expect them to move up.
Plus: every engine Innio delivers comes back for parts and overhauls. Services revenue rose 20% to $390 million, at a 31.7% segment margin, almost double the equipment segment’s 17.1%.
Cheaper than it’s been
Innio traded at 26x forward earnings at yesterday’s close, near the bottom of its range since it listed in late June…
…and well below its 41x average. After today’s jump, it’s closer to 28x.
The risk is execution: Innio has to build engines fast enough to turn that backlog into revenue, and it’s spending heavily on new capacity to do it.
My take: a backlog this size, at a multiple near the stock’s lows, makes Innio a buy even after today’s pop. Of course, a slowdown in AI spending would hit orders first, so watch intake when Innio reports its fourth quarter early next year.
So what is Innio stock actually worth?
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