Key Stats for Axon Stock
- 52-Week Range: $339 to $886
- Current Price: $449
- Street Mean Target: $662
- Street High Target: $825
- Analyst Consensus: 10 Buys / 8 Outperforms / 2 Holds
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $1,229
Axon Enterprise Stock Beats Q1 Estimates and Raises Its Full-Year Revenue Growth Ceiling
Axon Enterprise (AXON), the public safety technology company behind TASER devices, body cameras, and a growing AI and counter-drone platform, reported Q1 2026 revenue of $807.3 million, up 34% year over year and ahead of analyst expectations of around $778 million.
It was the ninth consecutive quarter of revenue growth above 30%.
The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to a range of 30% to 32%, up from its prior range of 27% to 30%, while maintaining its adjusted EBITDA margin target at 25.5%.
Two segments drove the outperformance.
Software and Services revenue grew 35% year over year to $355 million, with AI product revenue — still a small base — expanding more than 700% year over year as law enforcement agencies accelerated adoption of offerings like Draft One, Axon Assistant, and Axon Vision.
Counter-drone revenue from the Dedrone acquisition grew more than 300% year over year, with bookings up approximately 500%, making it one of the fastest-growing hardware programs in the company’s history.
Annual recurring revenue reached $1.5 billion, up 35% year over year, and future contracted bookings rose 44% to $14.3 billion.
President Josh Isner put the scale of the AI shift in plain terms on the Q1 2026 earnings call: “We went from 0 to $750 million in sales last year in our AI product line.”
International revenue crossed 20% of the total for the quarter, more than doubling year over year, as Dedrone and Carbyne opened national-level conversations in markets that previously moved slowly on cloud.
CEO Patrick Smith described the moment at Axon Week as one where customers are no longer debating AI adoption and are instead asking Axon to help them navigate it: “Nobody was saying like, I don’t know if this AI thing is for real. Like everybody is like, wow, it’s like it’s everywhere and help us figure this out.”
Despite the operational momentum, Axon Enterprise stock is down roughly 50% from its 52-week high of around $886, pressured by multiple compression after a prior-year valuation peak and short-term concerns around gross margin and free cash flow timing in Q1.
Is Axon Enterprise Stock Undervalued? 18 Analysts Say Yes, With a Mean Target of $662
Eighteen analysts cover Axon Enterprise stock with an active price target, and not one rates it a sell.
The consensus breaks down to 10 Buys, 8 Outperforms, and 2 Holds, with a mean target of around $662 and a high target of around $825.
Against the current price of around $449, the mean target implies roughly 47% upside, and the high target implies roughly 84% upside.
Wall Street’s confidence rests on the forward revenue and EBITDA trajectory.
Consensus estimates show Q2 2026 revenue of around $880 million, growing to around $940 million in Q3 and around $1.04 billion in Q4, putting the full-year total on a path consistent with the company’s raised 30% to 32% growth guidance.
EBITDA margins are expected to hold near 25% through Q2 before expanding as operating leverage kicks in during the second half of the year.
The forward picture extends into 2027, where consensus estimates show quarterly revenues reaching around $1.04 billion to $1.13 billion, with EBITDA margins stepping toward approximately 26%.
EPS normalized was $1.61 in Q1 2026, and the forward consensus points to approximately $1.83 in Q2, $2.02 in Q3, and $2.27 in Q4.
The AI Era Plan is the primary catalyst behind analyst conviction — bookings for the plan grew 140% year over year in Q1, and nearly all large domestic law enforcement agencies are now including AI in their purchasing plans, a shift from near-zero penetration two years ago.
The mispricing case for Axon Enterprise stock is grounded in exactly this gap: a business compounding revenue above 30% for nine straight quarters, raising its forward guide, and adding a counter-drone segment growing at hundreds of percent annually, yet trading near the same price it did after its prior earnings correction.
TIKR’s $1,229 Target on AXON Stock and the Three Revenue Scenarios That Get You There
TIKR’s base case values Axon Enterprise at approximately $1,229 by December 2030, implying around 174% total return from the current price of around $449, or approximately 25% annualized over roughly 4 and a half years.
If Axon delivers on its mid-case assumptions — around 23% revenue CAGR through 2035, net income margins near 19%, and EPS growing at roughly 19% annually — TIKR’s model prices the stock at approximately $2,054 by December 2034, representing around 358% total return, or roughly 19% annualized.
The low case, anchored to around 21% revenue CAGR and net income margins of roughly 17%, reaches approximately $1,332 by December 2034 — still around 197% total return and roughly 14% annualized.
The high case, requiring revenue CAGR near 25% and net income margins expanding to approximately 21%, reaches approximately $3,078 by December 2034, for around 586% total return and roughly 25% annualized.
The variable that separates the cases is not whether Axon grows, but whether the AI Era Plan, Dedrone, and the 911 software suite continue to add incremental high-margin revenue on top of the durable hardware and Software and Services core — and whether international expansion sustains the bookings pace that has already taken international bookings past $1 billion in a single year.
Is Axon Enterprise stock a buy right now?
Axon Enterprise stock trades around 50% below its 52-week high despite nine consecutive quarters of revenue growth above 30%, a raised full-year guidance range of 30% to 32%, and AI product revenue that expanded more than 700% year over year in Q1 2026.
The TIKR mid-case model targets around $1,229 by December 2030, implying roughly 174% total return from the current level.
The key variable to watch is whether EBITDA margin expansion materializes in the second half of the year as guided.
What do analysts say about Axon Enterprise stock?
Eighteen analysts cover AXON stock with a current consensus of 10 Buys, 8 Outperforms, and 2 Holds — no underperforms, no sells.
The mean price target stands at around $662 and the high target at around $825, implying upside of roughly 47% and roughly 84% from the current price of around $449, respectively.
Analyst conviction centers on AI Era Plan bookings growth and the emerging counter-drone revenue stream through Dedrone.
Should You Invest in Axon Enterprise, Inc.?
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