Key Stats for Goodyear Stock
- Price Change: -13.6%
- Current Price: ~$9.10
- TIKR Model Target: $7.47
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What Happened?
Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) plummeted 13.6% to close near $9.10 on Tuesday
The company hit a new 52-week low as investors aggressively sold the stock following a disastrous outlook for early 2026.
While the company reported Q4 revenue of $4.9 billion, beating expectations on the top line, it missed earnings estimates with an adjusted EPS of $0.39 versus the $0.49 forecast.
However, the real panic was triggered by the forward guidance.
Management warned that first-quarter volume would be down approximately 10%, driven by weak demand and “extreme winter temperatures” that kept drivers off the road.
The company also revealed a $1.7 billion net loss for the full year 2025.
This was largely due to non-cash impairment charges, which further spooked investors about the underlying asset value.
Adding to the gloom, analysts at Morgan Stanley maintained an “Underweight” rating with a price target of $7.30
They cited persistent headwinds in the commercial truck market and intense competition from low-cost imports.
With the company facing a $60 million headwind from unabsorbed overhead as it cuts production to manage bloating inventory, the market is pricing in a prolonged period of underperformance.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Goodyear stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Goodyear Undervalued Today?
During the earnings call, CEO Mark Stewart attempted to highlight the “self-help” measures underway.
He stated: “Our fourth quarter results marked the highest SOI and SOI margin the company has achieved in over 7 years.”
However, CFO Christina Zamarro delivered the hard truth about the immediate future: “We expect first quarter volume to be down approximately 10%… Unabsorbed overhead will be a headwind of $60 million.”
Zamarro also pointed to external pressures: “U.S. consumer industry sell-out during the month of January was down significantly… shaped by extreme winter temperatures.”
Read the full Goodyear Transcript on TIKR to see the 2026 Roadmap >>>
According to TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model, the stock is a “Value Trap” with significant downside risk remaining.
- Target Price: $7
- Current Price: ~$9
- Potential Downside: -18%
Valuation Deep Dive
The investment case for Goodyear has deteriorated into a “distressed asset” narrative.
With the stock trading at ~$9.10, the market is already pessimistic, but the $7.47 target implies that the bottom is not yet in.
- The Volume Collapse: A 10% drop in volume is a massive blow for a high-fixed-cost manufacturer, leading to severe margin compression.
- The Inventory Glut: Dealers are destocking, forcing Goodyear to cut production, which further hurts profitability through unabsorbed overhead.
- The Valuation Trap: The $7.47 target reflects the reality that without volume growth, Goodyear’s debt load and pension obligations become an increasingly heavy burden on equity value.
If Goodyear cannot stabilize volumes in the second half of 2026, the path to $7.47 is paved by continued earnings revisions and balance sheet concerns.
Conclusion: Treading on thin ice. With 18% downside potential to $7.47, Goodyear remains a dangerous bet for investors until there is clear evidence that the volume decline has bottomed.
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How Much Upside Does Goodyear Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
