Key Stats for Formula One Stock
- 52-Week Range: $80 to $109
- Current Price: $91
- Street Mean Target: $115
- Street High Target: $135
- Analyst Consensus: 11 Buys / 3 Outperforms / 2 Holds
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $168
Formula One Group Stock Beats Q1 Estimates, but the Race Calendar Reset Defines 2026
Formula One Group (FWONK), the Liberty Media tracking stock tied to the Formula 1 commercial rights holder and MotoGP, reported Q1 2026 revenue of $711 million — up 59% year over year and ahead of the $670 million consensus estimate, following the company’s May 7 earnings call.
Three races were held in Q1 2026 versus two in Q1 2025, with Japan added to the current-year period, and the extra event drove outsized growth in media rights, race promotion, hospitality, and sponsorship revenue.
Adjusted OIBDA reached $181 million for the quarter, more than doubling from $73 million in Q1 2025 and beating the $175 million street estimate, as revenue growth outpaced the increase in team payments and operating expenses.
The beat matters less than the full-year context: Liberty Media guided to 22 races in 2026 versus 24 in 2025, with two Middle East rounds in April cancelled due to the conflict in the region, making the second quarter the most structurally impaired period of the year with only five races expected.
CEO Derek Chang said on the Q1 2026 earnings call: “While that creates a near-term financial impact, it does not change our confidence in the long-term trajectory of this sport.”
That comment sits against a calendar that is actively expanding. Turkey’s Istanbul Park confirmed a return to the Formula 1 calendar starting in 2027 under a five-year agreement. Sky extended its UK and Ireland broadcast deal through 2034 and its Italy deal through 2032, with sources indicating a figure in the region of 200 million pounds a year for the UK and Ireland extension alone. Apple, now in its first season as the exclusive U.S. broadcaster, reported higher average viewership across the first three races versus the prior season, with a younger and more female audience profile.
Gucci’s announcement as the 2027 title partner for Alpine also signals something structural: luxury brands are treating Formula 1 as a premium content platform in the same way LVMH did with a multi-year deal valued at over $100 million in 2024, and that brand alignment lifts the ceiling on sponsorship pricing for the entire grid.
Stefano Domenicali, Formula One’s President and CEO, was direct on the demand picture: “The Paddock Club is already sold out for nearly all of our remaining races this season with over 65,000 tickets sold to date. This figure is already in line with our 2025 total Paddock Club attendance.”
The company is adding capacity — Silverstone, Austin, and Monza are all expanding hospitality infrastructure — which means the revenue ceiling is actively rising across the events that already sell out instantly.
Free cash flow in Q1 came in at $337 million, well above the $275 million consensus estimate, driven by operating cash flow of $357 million against capital expenditures of around $20 million.
Fourteen Buys and a $135 High Target: What Analysts See Beyond the 2026 Race Count Dip
Wall Street is not pricing Formula One Group stock as a 2026 story. The consensus is structurally bullish, and the distribution shows it: 11 Buys, 3 Outperforms, and 2 Holds as of the latest read, with no underperforms or sells in the count.
The mean price target sits at around $115 against a current price of around $91, implying roughly 26% upside. The high target of $135 implies roughly 48% from here.
JPMorgan, which presented alongside management at its TMT conference on May 19, lowered its target to $111 from $115 but maintained its Buy rating, reflecting the near-term race count adjustment rather than any change in the long-term view.
Formula One stock’s Q1 2026 EBITDA came in at $181 million on $711 million of revenue, a 25% EBITDA margin against 16% in Q1 2025. Management confirmed on the earnings call that the full-year 200 basis point improvement in team payment leverage remains on track, best evaluated annually given quarterly fluctuations in the payout ratio.
The forward estimates reflect the step-up clearly. Consensus has EBITDA at around $250 million for Q2 2026 and around $370 million for Q3 2026, with the back half of the year carrying the structural weight the cancelled Middle East races removed from the front half.
Revenue is also estimated at around $970 million for Q2 2026 and around $1.25 billion for Q3 2026, consistent with the race-count-driven recognition of season-based media rights revenue. These are not heroic projections; they are the mechanical output of a calendar that scheduled five races in Q2 versus nine in Q2 2025.
s Formula One Group Stock Undervalued in 2026? The TIKR Model at $168 Makes the Case
TIKR’s base case values Formula One Group stock at approximately $168 by December 2030, implying around 85% total return from the current price of around $91, or roughly 14% annualized over approximately 4 and a half years.
If revenue grows at around 7% annually and net income margins expand to roughly 11%, TIKR’s model puts the stock at approximately $214 by December 2034, representing around 136% total return at an IRR of roughly 10% annualized — the outcome if the Apple partnership deepens, the sponsorship renewal cycle holds, and MotoGP’s commercialization begins to produce visible returns alongside F1’s contracted base.
The low case, anchored to around 7% revenue growth and around 10% net income margins, reaches approximately $169 by December 2034, a total return of around 86% and an IRR of roughly 8% annualized — still well above the current price, reflecting the contracted nature of Formula 1’s revenue base even without multiple expansion.
The high case at around 8% revenue growth and approximately 11% net income margins produces approximately $262 by December 2034, representing around 188% total return at an IRR of roughly 13% annualized, with the upside scenario tied to a U.S. viewership breakthrough on Apple, continued luxury brand migration into F1 sponsorship, and further Paddock Club capacity expansion across the calendar.
FWONK is undervalued at current levels. The thesis is not dependent on the high case; even the low case returns nearly 86% from here by 2034. The market is pricing the 2026 race count as a durable impairment. The TIKR model is pricing the rights base that runs through 2034 and beyond.
Is Formula One Group Stock a Buy Right Now?
Formula One Group stock carries 11 Buy ratings, 3 Outperforms, and 2 Holds, with a mean street target of around $115 and a high target of around $135 against a current price of around $91.
TIKR’s mid-case model values the stock at approximately $168 by December 2030.
The near-term headwind is a 22-race calendar in 2026 versus 24 in 2025, but the contracted revenue base, multi-year media deals with Sky and Apple, and the team payment leverage trajectory under the Concorde Agreement support the bullish case through the cycle.
What Do Analysts Say About FWONK Stock?
Sixteen analysts cover FWONK, with 11 Buys, 3 Outperforms, and 2 Holds and no sell-side negative ratings in the current distribution.
The mean price target sits at around $115, implying roughly 26% upside from the current price.
JPMorgan maintained a Buy and presented alongside management at its May 2026 TMT conference.
The consensus is not split on the long-term thesis; it is adjusting near-term targets for a calendar year with two fewer races.
Should You Invest in Formula One Group?
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