Key Stats for Take-Two Interactive Stock
- 52-Week Range: $188 to $265
- Current Price: $224
- Street Mean Target: $279
- Street High Target: $320
- Analyst Consensus: 25 Buys / 2 Outperforms / 1 Hold / 1 Underperform
- TIKR Model Target (Mar. 2031): $467
Take-Two Interactive Stock Rallies on GTA VI Date Confirmation, But the 2027 Bookings Guide Tells a Different Story
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), one of the largest video game publishers in the world, rose around 7% in premarket trading on May 22 after the company confirmed November 19 as the launch date for Grand Theft Auto VI while reporting Q4 fiscal 2026 net bookings of $1.58 billion, above the high end of its guidance range.
The quarterly beat was clean. Revenue of $1.68 billion topped the consensus estimate of $1.57 billion.
GTA V has sold nearly 230 million units since its 2013 launch, executives confirmed on the earnings call — a figure that frames what the franchise ecosystem can sustain even between major releases.
Recurrent consumer spending accounted for 82% of Q4 net bookings and grew 7% year-over-year, with GTA Online driving a 5% increase and NBA 2K up 10% in one of the franchise’s strongest fourth quarters on record.
For full-year fiscal 2026, net bookings reached $6.72 billion, approximately $750 million above the guidance Take-Two provided twelve months earlier.
Operating cash flow came in at $624 million for the year, well above the company’s $450 million forecast, and management is guiding for more than $1 billion in operating cash flow in fiscal 2027.
The guidance headline, however, created immediate friction. Take-Two projected fiscal 2027 net bookings of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion, against an analyst consensus of $9.10 billion — a gap that sent the stock down around 3% to 5% intraday on May 22 before it stabilized.
J.P. Morgan, which maintained an overweight stance, called the reaction “a bit surprising” but framed it as a clearing event: the combination of the GTA VI marketing launch this summer and the potential for material upward estimate revisions through the year creates what the firm described as a compelling setup for TTWO shares into the November release.
CEO Strauss Zelnick, speaking at the TD Cowen TMT conference was explicit about the company’s willingness to invest for the long term: “We are building this business for 5, 10, 15, 20 years, hence. We’ve made a lot of really hard decisions. And the reason our company is as valuable as it is, is because we have all these franchises that deliver over and over again.”
Red Dead Redemption 2 also reached its highest annual unit sales since launch year, with over 85 million units sold-in to-date — evidence that Rockstar’s catalog compounds without a major new release.
The broader portfolio continued to contribute. Toon Blast grew approximately 25% year-over-year. WWE 2K26, launched in March, drove recurrent consumer spending up 20% year-over-year. Mobile title Color Block Jam remained the highest-grossing title in Rollic’s history.
Take-Two Interactive also confirmed 29 titles in its pipeline through fiscal 2029, including GTA VI, NBA 2K27, PGA TOUR 2K27, WWE 2K27, BioShock sequel references, the announced Judas, and seven AAA sequels across fiscal 2028 and 2029.
Is Take-Two Interactive Stock Undervalued in 2026? Here Is What the Street Says
Twenty-five of 28 covering analysts rate Take-Two Interactive stock a buy or strong buy, with 2 outperforms and just 1 hold in the current consensus. That is not cautious coverage — it is near-unanimous conviction heading into the most anticipated video game launch in history.
The street mean target sits at around $279, implying around 24% upside from the current price of around $224. The street high target is $320, implying around 43% upside.
The core fundamental case is straightforward. Take-Two guided fiscal 2027 net bookings at $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion, a roughly 20% increase over the $6.72 billion posted in fiscal 2026. That growth is primarily GTA VI — a single title carrying the weight of a step-change in the company’s operating scale.
The guide looks conservative by design. Management has a consistent track record of undershooting its own projections: fiscal 2026 net bookings came in $750 million above the initial guidance given in May 2025. Fiscal 2027 bookings guidance came in around $900 million below the analyst consensus — and J.P. Morgan read that gap not as a warning signal but as a setup for upward revisions.
Bank of America, which maintained a buy and raised its target to $320, called the fiscal 2027 outlook “very, very conservative.”
The estimates table on TIKR shows the shape of what consensus now expects. Revenue is forecast at around $1.36 billion for the June 2026 quarter, with a 4.6% year-over-year decline as the company pre-launch period absorbs marketing spending, before accelerating to around $3.27 billion in the December 2026 quarter — the first full quarter with GTA VI in market — a projected 86% year-over-year increase.
EBITDA is forecast to follow the same arc: roughly $120 million in the June quarter with a 9% margin, before inflecting to around $900 million in the December quarter at a projected EBITDA margin of approximately 28%.
EPS normalized is projected at $0.36 for the June quarter, rising to $3.84 in the December quarter, the sharpest sequential increase in the forward estimate window.
The key variable to watch is whether GTA VI’s live-service monetization, GTA Online 2.0 and a subscription ecosystem, matches or exceeds the long-tail trajectory of GTA V’s online economy. Management would not guide to it, but Zelnick noted that GTA Online is a 13-year-old business that “shows no signs of abating.”
One structural risk sits underneath the headline. Take-Two carries meaningful debt, and major institutional holders have been trimming exposure. Tiger Global cut its TTWO stake by 65.7% in Q1 2026. Soros Fund Management dissolved its position entirely. CEO Zelnick sold approximately $15 million in shares in late May. These moves do not invalidate the thesis, but they are data points any investor should weigh.
Free cash flow in the June 2026 quarter is projected at roughly $90 million on a 7% margin, before turning negative in the September quarter as marketing and distribution costs peak. The FCF inflection arrives in December, when consensus projects around $630 million in free cash flow on a 19% margin.
Is TTWO Stock Worth $467? TIKR’s Model and the November Catalyst
TIKR’s base case values Take-Two Interactive at approximately $467 by March 2031, implying around 108% total return from the current price of around $224, or roughly 16% annualized over approximately 5 years.
TTWO is undervalued at current levels. The TIKR model, anchored in mid-case revenue CAGR of approximately 7% and net income margins expanding to around 21%, produces a target price that is more than double where the stock trades today.
That gap exists precisely because the market is pricing in execution risk on GTA VI rather than the base case of a successful launch that sets a new recurring revenue floor.
If GTA VI delivers on the franchise’s historical trajectory — and GTA V’s 230 million units and 13-year online economy provide the clearest precedent — the TIKR mid case points to around $486 by March 2035 on a 9% IRR basis, with EPS growth of roughly 14% compounded annually.
The low case — revenue CAGR of roughly 7% with net income margins near 20% — still implies a stock price of around $383 by March 2031 and an IRR of around 6%, a scenario where GTA VI performs but the live-service monetization cycle disappoints, and mobile growth continues to moderate.
The high case — revenue CAGR near 8%, net income margins around 22%, EPS growth compounding at roughly 15% — produces a price near $601 by March 2031 on an IRR of around 12%, a scenario where GTA VI exceeds GTA V’s commercial footprint, the college basketball expansion in NBA 2K opens a new monetization layer, and AI-driven development efficiency improves margins structurally.
Is Take-Two Interactive Stock a Good Investment Right Now?
Take-Two Interactive stock enters the GTA VI launch window with 25 of 28 analysts rating it a buy and a street mean target of around $279, implying approximately 24% upside from around $224.
The TIKR mid-case model goes further, pointing to around $467 by March 2031 — more than double the current price.
The key risk is execution: if GTA VI underperforms or the live-service monetization cycle disappoints after launch, the thesis collapses quickly. The data, not the hype, is the signal to monitor.
What Is the Price Target for TTWO Stock?
The street mean price target for TTWO is approximately $279, with the high target at $320 from Bank of America among others. Those targets reflect 12-month analyst views.
TIKR’s five-year model extends the picture further, with a mid-case target of approximately $467 and a high case near $601 by March 2031.
Both the near-term street consensus and the longer-term TIKR framework are directionally aligned: TTWO is undervalued at current levels.
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