Key Stats for Ford Motor Company
- 52-Week Range: $10.68 – $17.78
- Current Price: $14.33
- Street Mean Target: $15.05
- Market Cap: $56.7 billion
- NTM P/E: 9.49x
- NTM EV/EBITDA: 14.13x
- Dividend Yield: 4.2%
Ford Motor Company (F) had a strange few months. A strong Q1 earnings beat, a $1.3 billion tariff refund, and the launch of Ford Energy sent the stock from around $14 to nearly $18 in late May.
Then it gave most of it back. Weaker April sales, an aluminum supply disruption hitting F-150 production, and questions about whether the tariff windfall would repeat pulled shares back toward where they started the year.
Ford now sits roughly 18% off its peak with Q2 results due July 28. The stock is cheap by almost any measure. Whether cheap is the same as compelling is a trickier question.
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A 23% Drawdown in a Business That Didn’t Actually Break
The drawdowns chart clearly shows the shape of 2026. Through most of late 2025, Ford’s price swings were contained and relatively routine. Starting in March, things changed.
The stock drew down sharply, bounced hard on the Ford Energy launch and Q1 results, then resumed sliding. The max drawdown reached 23.39% on July 2, and shares sit roughly 18% off that peak today.
Worth separating here are what happened to the stock and to the business. Ford Pro, the commercial division that equips fleet operators with trucks, vans, and increasingly software, posted $1.7 billion in operating profit in Q1 at an 11.4% margin.
Paid software subscriptions grew 30% year over year to 879,000. A business generating that kind of commercial services revenue is not the same Ford that many investors wrote off a few years ago.
The stock’s pullback reflects genuine uncertainty around tariffs, Model e losses, and Ford Energy’s timeline, not a collapse in the core operation.
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Revenue Near Records, Margins Tell a Harder Story
Ford’s revenue grew from $126 billion in 2021 to nearly $174 billion by 2025, a steady climb across a difficult stretch for the industry.
The EBIT margin line is harder to look at. It peaked at around 5% in 2022, fell below 2% in 2023 as EV investment ramped up, recovered to 3% in 2024, then went negative in 2025 when the company absorbed a $19.5 billion charge tied to canceled EV programs.
A negative margin relative to a record revenue bar is a strange combination, and it explains much of the skepticism still hanging over the stock.
The Q1 2026 numbers change the picture. Adjusted EBIT came in at $3.5 billion at an 8.1% margin, more than triple the year-ago result.
CEO Jim Farley pointed to improved cost structure, stronger product mix, and early contributions from software and services. CFO Sherry House was measured, noting the $1.3 billion IEEPA tariff benefit was a meaningful one-time item.
Full-year adjusted EBIT guidance was raised to $8.5 to $10.5 billion. Commodity headwinds of around $2 billion and Model e losses of $4 to $4.5 billion for the year are real offsets to watch, and Q2 earnings will be the first read on whether the business holds up without the tariff cushion.
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What the Valuation Model Says
TIKR’s model targets around $20 per share in the mid case, suggesting a total return of roughly 37% from current levels over about four years, or around 7% annualized.
The high case reaches roughly $28. The scenario range skews upward, which is encouraging, though the mid-case annual return is modest relative to what most investors expect from a cyclical stock carrying this level of operational complexity.
The return profile here is driven by EPS growth, not multiple expansion. All three scenarios actually assume modest P/E contraction over time.
The bull case doesn’t require the market to reprice Ford as a technology company. It just requires the earnings recovery to continue, which is a more grounded and realistic setup.
Should You Buy Ford Stock?
Ford is trading cheaply, paying a 4% dividend, and showing real improvement in its commercial business. The 2025 margin collapse was driven by accounting charges, not a deteriorating operation. Q2 earnings on July 28 are the first real test of whether the core business sustains its momentum without the Q1 tariff benefit.
TIKR’s model points to modest but credible upside from current prices. Keep Ford on your watchlist and use TIKR to track how the margin story develops before making a move.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
