Key Takeaways for Fair Isaac Stock as of June 2026
- Analysts rate FICO stock 11 Buy, 5 Outperform, 4 Hold, 1 Sell with a street mean target of $1,535, implying around 35% upside from the current price of $1,140.
- TIKR’s mid-case model values FICO at around $2,188 by September 2030, implying around 92% total return from current levels, or roughly 17% annualized.
- FICO stock is undervalued at current levels, with normalized EPS of $12.50 in Q2 FY2026 putting the company on pace for non-GAAP EPS of around $40 this fiscal year while the stock sits nearly 43% below its 52-week high.
- FICO launched a $2 billion stock repurchase authorization on June 8 and immediately deployed $1.5 billion into an accelerated share repurchase program with Wells Fargo, buying back roughly 1.06 million shares before fiscal year-end.
FICO stock trades 43% below its 52-week high despite raising full-year guidance. Explore analyst targets, earnings estimates, and the TIKR model. Access FICO stock data on TIKR for free →
Fair Isaac Stock Surged 39% in Q2 Revenue but Trades 43% Off Its High on VantageScore Fear
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO), the credit scoring and AI decisioning software company behind the FICO Score, reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $691.68 million on April 28, up 39% year over year and well ahead of the analyst consensus estimate of $629.80 million.
The Scores segment drove the beat, with revenue jumping 60% to $475 million as higher mortgage origination score pricing and increased origination volumes combined to push B2B scores up 72%.
Mortgage originations revenues alone surged 127%, accounting for 63% of total Scores revenue in the quarter.
FICO stock climbed roughly 13% on the earnings release, but shares remain down more than 40% from their 52-week high of $1,998.01, reflecting sustained pressure from investor concern over VantageScore gaining a foothold in the conforming mortgage market.
CEO Will Lansing addressed that concern directly on the Q2 earnings call: “We do not anticipate share loss to competition in any vertical.”
The company raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $2.45 billion, up from $2.35 billion, and lifted non-GAAP EPS guidance to $40.45, up from $38.17.
FICO’s Software segment also posted growth, with revenue up 7% to $217 million and Platform ARR reaching $349 million, up 49% year over year, driven by the company’s land-and-expand model across financial services.
The $2 billion buyback authorization announced June 8, funded by a $1.5 billion incremental term loan, signals management’s view that FICO stock is underpriced, with Lansing calling current levels “an opportunistic time” to repurchase shares.
The buyback and the guidance raise tell a specific story about where management thinks FICO stock belongs. Pull the estimates and model it yourself. Explore FICO earnings estimates on TIKR for free →
Analysts Hold $1,535 Mean Target on FICO Stock as EPS Trajectory Stays Intact
Wall Street projects FICO stock to deliver normalized EPS of around $11 in Q3 FY2026 and roughly $15 in Q2 FY2027, reflecting continued Scores pricing power and accelerating platform software contributions even as mortgage origination volumes stay below their long-run average.
FICO stock’s normalized EPS of $12.50 in Q2 FY2026 represented 60% year-over-year growth, outpacing revenue growth of 39% and signaling that earnings are scaling faster than the top line.
The analyst consensus as of June 24, 2026 stands at 11 Buy, 5 Outperform, 4 Hold, and 1 Sell, with a street mean target of $1,535 and a street high of $2,400.
That mean target implies around 35% upside from the current price of $1,140, a gap that the bull camp ties directly to a single underlying argument: FICO’s EPS trajectory has accelerated despite the VantageScore roll-out, and the market has not yet repriced the stock to reflect that resilience.
The Hold camp disagrees not on the earnings trajectory but on timing, pointing to uncertainty around whether the direct licensing program for FICO Score 10T will go live before fiscal year-end and whether a two-score mortgage market introduces pricing complexity not yet modeled.
CFO Steve Weber noted on the April 28 call that “we have some lag built into the guidance based on the assumption that the performance model will go live,” acknowledging a modest timing drag on near-term revenue from the shift to performance-based pricing.
The Street’s open question is whether the FICO Score 10T direct licensing program goes live and captures the 50% of the market Lansing estimates would prefer performance-based pricing before September 30, or whether that revenue shifts into fiscal 2027.
Is Fair Isaac Stock Undervalued in 2026? TIKR’s $2,188 Model Says Yes
TIKR’s mid-case model values FICO stock at around $2,188 by September 2030, implying around 92% total return from the current price of $1,140, or roughly 17% annualized over 4.3 years.
The 60% Scores segment revenue growth and 127% mortgage origination surge established in Q2 represent the demand conditions that underpin the target, and Lansing confirmed volumes came in ahead of the conservative assumptions already baked into full-year guidance.
The $2,188 target holds as long as FICO stock’s EPS trajectory continues compounding at the pace Q2 already delivered, with the $2 billion buyback shrinking the share count and the raised $2.45 billion revenue guide removing the key downside risk the market priced in after the VantageScore announcement.
TIKR’s model puts FICO stock’s fair value at around $2,188 by 2030. Run your own assumptions against the data. Build your FICO valuation model on TIKR for free →
Should You Invest in Fair Isaac Corporation?
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