Key Stats for Eli Lilly Stock
- Current Price: $1,149.85
- Target Price (Mid): ~$2,010
- Street Target: ~$1,330
- Potential Total Return: ~75%
- Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
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What Happened?
Eli Lilly (LLY) released Phase 2b results for EloraTZP on September 30. EloraTZP is an experimental pairing of the amylin drug eloralintide with tirzepatide (the active ingredient in Zepbound and Mounjaro). On an efficacy basis, which assumes patients stayed on treatment, the top dose produced 23.3% average weight loss at 48 weeks, versus 14.8% for tirzepatide 15 mg alone.
Shares closed down 2.33% at $1,157.08 that day and slipped 0.62% to $1,149.85 on October 1. Lilly also released full Foundayo cardiovascular results on September 30, and no single cause for the decline has been confirmed. Lilly’s investor relations materials hold the trial data. The October 29 earnings report holds the bigger test.
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Higher Doses Beat Tirzepatide Alone, but More Patients Quit
Three of the four combinations beat tirzepatide 15 mg alone, with two middle doses at 19.4% and 19.9%. The lowest, at 13.2%, did not. Comparisons with tirzepatide alone were secondary endpoints in a 367-patient trial, so this is a Phase 2 signal, not a head-to-head win.
Between 10.8% and 27.0% of patients on the combination stopped treatment because of side effects, versus 2.9% on tirzepatide alone and 16.7% on placebo. That gap matters because the headline efficacy figures assume everyone stayed on the drug. Lilly plans to start Phase 3 in Q4 2026 with a co-formulated version and an optimized dose-escalation schedule, a plan rather than a trial underway.
Lilly presented full ACHIEVE-4 results on September 30, after disclosing the headline figures on September 15. The trial showed Foundayo, its oral GLP-1 pill, met its cardiovascular safety goal against insulin glargine. Its 16% lower risk of major cardiovascular events carries a confidence interval that crosses 1. An October 1 post-hoc analysis tied the 17.2 mg dose to a 57% lower predicted 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes, a risk-model output rather than observed diagnoses.
Lilly Is Trading Price for Volume While U.S. Coverage Sits Near 50%
In Q2 2026, global volume rose 60% while realized prices fell 13%. U.S. volume rose 37% against a 3% price decline, about 9% excluding rebate-estimate adjustments. Prices outside the U.S. fell 36%, mostly from Mounjaro’s addition to China’s national reimbursement list.
At a Morgan Stanley conference on September 14, Ilya Yuffa, Executive Vice President and President of Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities, discussed generic versions of Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) semaglutide. He said they have expanded the markets in India and Canada, with Mounjaro’s absolute volume still growing as its share declines.
In the U.S., coverage is the constraint. Yuffa said of commercial insurance, “we’ve been relatively stagnant on 50%,” expected no step change in either direction for 2027, and called Medicare’s Bridge program probably the single largest driver of increased access. He also cited a Lilly study of Zepbound patients aged 55 and over showing direct medical savings of up to $600 per person per month at 12 months, which he said more than offsets the drug’s cost.
Lilly trades at around 28x NTM P/E, versus about 12x for Novo Nordisk and 17x for Merck (MRK), per TIKR. Consensus normalized EPS is expected to grow around 40% a year from 2025 to 2027.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $1,149.85
- Target Price (Mid): ~$2,010
- Potential Total Return: ~75%
- Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
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The TIKR mid case, the model’s central scenario, targets around $2,010 by December 31, 2030. That is a total return of around 75%, or around 14% a year from the October 1 close. For context, consensus puts 2030 revenue near $132 billion and normalized EPS near $66, per TIKR, from a thin pool of 16 analysts on revenue.
The main risk is price cuts outrunning volume. Upside comes if employer coverage moves above 50%. The downside comes if pricing or the multiple erodes faster than earnings grow.
Conclusion
Lilly reports Q3 on October 29. Consensus calls for around $22.4 billion in revenue, below Q2’s $22.974 billion. Lilly has said its first half benefited from sales-based milestones and rebate adjustments.
As of October 2, the full-year consensus of around $88.5 billion sits above Lilly’s August 5 guidance of $85 billion to $87 billion. A rise to that level would back the Street’s numbers. One that stops short would suggest expectations ran ahead of the company.
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So what is Eli Lilly stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
