Down 50% In Last 12 Months, Is Samsara Stock A Good Buy In 2026?

Key Takeaways:

• Enterprise Momentum: Samsara added a record 219 customers with $100K+ ARR in Q3 2026, with large enterprise deals driving accelerating growth.
• Price Projection: Based on current execution, IOT stock could reach $37 by January 2028.
• Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 41% from the current price of $26.67.
• Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 19% growth over the next 2 years.

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Samsara (IOT) delivered exceptional third-quarter fiscal 2026 results that met expectations across multiple key metrics. The company reached $1.75 billion in ARR, up 29% year over year, while achieving its first GAAP-profitable quarter.

CEO Sanjit Biswas highlighted the company’s strategic focus on partnering with the world’s largest operations organizations.

This approach is paying dividends as Samsara added 219 customers with over $100,000 in ARR during the quarter, a quarterly record. The company now serves 2,990 customers in this segment, contributing more than $1 billion in ARR and growing 36% year over year.

• The platform’s value proposition continues to resonate with enterprise customers facing complex operational challenges.
• Samsara unifies data from disparate systems across vehicles, equipment, and frontline teams into a single platform, then uses AI to deliver actionable insights that drive measurable ROI.
• One notable Q3 win involved a top-five school bus provider transporting over 1 million students across 30+ states. Using Samsara’s Video-Based Safety and AI Multicam products, the company is enforcing a zero-tolerance policy on driver mobile use and drowsiness.
• In another example, a major mechanical contractor saw a 44% reduction in safety events and 72% reduction in mobile usage during their pilot.
• The company’s recent safety report analyzed data from over 2,600 customers and found that fleets using dual-facing AI dash cameras achieved a 37% reduction in accidents after six months, increasing to 73% after 30 months. These outcomes translate directly to lower insurance premiums and reduced liability costs for customers.
• Emerging products launched since last year now account for 20% of net new ACV, up from 8% in the prior quarter.
• This demonstrates strong adoption across Asset Tags, Connected Training, and Connected Workflows.
• Asset Tags ARR grew more than 400% year-over-year, with customers using the technology to track high-value equipment and optimize utilization.

International markets are showing accelerating momentum. Europe contributed its highest-ever quarterly net new ACV mix, with year-over-year growth accelerating for the second consecutive quarter.

Management sees a significant long-term opportunity as European markets have more physical operations assets than the U.S., but remain earlier in their digitization journey.

See analysts’ full growth forecasts and estimates for IOT stock (It’s free) >>>

What the Model Says for Samsara Stock

We analyzed Samsara as the leading Connected Operations platform transforming how physical operations businesses manage their assets and frontline workers.

The company benefits from several structural advantages. First, its IoT devices generate a proprietary data asset that competitors cannot easily replicate.

Second, AI is accelerating product innovation, enabling faster releases of meaningful features that drive customer engagement.

Third, the business model scales with physical assets rather than knowledge workers, aligning with secular growth in infrastructure spending.

Physical operations account for over 40% of global GDP, with organizations typically allocating 80% of their revenue to labor and assets.

This creates a massive addressable market for optimization solutions that deliver fast payback periods.

Using a forecast of 22.7% annual revenue growth and 17.1% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $37 within 2 years. This assumes a 44.4x price-to-earnings multiple.

That represents compression relative to Samsara’s one-year historical P/E of 94.8x, reflecting the company’s transition toward more normalized profitability as it scales.

The multiple reflects strong execution on large enterprise deals while accounting for the inherent quarterly variability these longer sales cycles can introduce.

The real value lies in Samsara becoming the system of record for physical operations globally, with over 95% of $100K+ customers now subscribing to multiple products.

Our Valuation Assumptions

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Our Valuation Assumptions

TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.

Here’s what we used for IOT stock:

1. Revenue Growth: 22.7%

Samsara’s growth is driven by the structural demand for operations digitization.

The company delivered 24% net new ARR growth in Q3, its highest rate in seven quarters, with momentum accelerating sequentially.

Management sees continued strength from large enterprise adoption, multiproduct expansion within existing customers, and emerging products gaining traction.

International markets offer additional upside, as Europe and Latin America are further along in their digitization journey than the U.S.

2. Operating margins: 17.1%

Samsara achieved a record 19% non-GAAP operating margin in Q3, up 9 percentage points year-over-year.

This demonstrates the company’s ability to leverage its operations as it scales.

Management expects to maintain a 16% operating margin in fiscal 2026 while continuing to invest in R&D and international expansion, with further margin expansion opportunities over time through operational efficiency and a higher-margin software revenue mix.

3. Exit P/E Multiple: 44.4x

The market currently values Samsara at 48.4x earnings. We assume modest compression to 44.4x over our forecast period as the company demonstrates consistent execution.

Near-term considerations include the longer sales cycles of large enterprise deals, which could introduce quarterly variability.

However, as Samsara proves its ability to consistently land and expand within large corporate customers while maintaining strong unit economics, the premium multiple reflects its leadership position in a large, underpenetrated market.

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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?

IoT platforms face execution risk and economic sensitivity. Here’s how Samsara stock might perform under different scenarios through January 2030:

• Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 17.5% and net income margins compress to 17.4%, investors still see a 51.5% total return (11.0% annually).
• Mid Case: With 19.4% growth and 18.5% margins, we expect a total return of 98.7% (18.9% annually).
• High Case: If enterprise adoption accelerates to 21.3% revenue growth and Samsara achieves 19.6% margins, total returns could reach 156.8% (26.8% annually).

See what analysts think about IOT stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>

The range reflects execution on large enterprise deals, successful international expansion, and the company’s ability to maintain premium pricing while scaling operations efficiently.

How Much Upside Does Samsara Stock Have From Here?

With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.

All it takes is three simple inputs:

• Revenue Growth
• Operating Margins
• Exit P/E Multiple

If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.

From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!