Key Takeaways:
- Digital Banking Boom: 35% member growth in 2025, driven by one-stop shop financial services strategy.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, SOFI stock could reach $32 by December 2028.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 65% from the current price of $19.46.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 19% growth over the next 2.9 years.
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SoFi Technologies (SOFI) just posted its first $1 billion revenue quarter while achieving adjusted EBITDA margins above 30% for the first time.
The fintech leader added a record 1 million new members in Q4 2025, reaching 13.7 million total members—more than 20x larger than its base in 2018.
CEO Anthony Noto is executing an ambitious expansion strategy focused on integrating crypto and AI.
The company originated over $36 billion in loans during 2025 and generated nearly $1.8 billion in annualized fee-based revenue, demonstrating its shift toward capital-light business models.
Adjusted EBITDA surged 60% to $318 million in Q4, while net income hit $174 million. The company’s Rule of 40 score reached 68%, placing it among elite fintech performers.
Management expects to maintain at least 30% annual revenue growth through 2028.
Despite this momentum, SoFi stock trades at $19.46, leaving room for upside for investors who recognize the company’s position in digital financial services.
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What the Model Says for SoFi Stock
We analyzed SoFi’s transformation into a comprehensive financial services platform, with growing diversification beyond lending.
The company is expanding beyond traditional loan products into crypto trading, stablecoin issuance, and business banking.
In 2025, SoFi became the first national bank to launch consumer crypto trading and issue its own stablecoin (SoFi USD).
This positions the company at the center of the emerging digital asset ecosystem while maintaining FDIC insurance protection for member deposits.
- The platform now serves 13.7 million members with over 20 million products across lending, investing, spending, and saving.
- Cross-buy rates reached 40%, up 7 percentage points year over year, indicating deeper customer relationships.
- Fee-based revenue hit $443 million in Q4, up more than 50% year-over-year.
Using a forecast of 22.9% annual revenue growth and 24.9% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $32 within 2.9 years. This assumes a 29x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression from SoFi’s current NTM P/E of 33.6x and its one-year average of 53.6x. The lower multiple reflects execution risks from rapid expansion into crypto and business banking, as well as potential regulatory headwinds.
The real value lies in sustaining member growth, expanding into higher-margin services, and maintaining industry-leading customer-acquisition efficiency.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for SOFI stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 22.9%
SoFi’s growth centers on member expansion and product innovation. The company achieved 35% member growth in 2025, bringing its total to 13.7 million members.
Management expects at least 30% member growth in 2026, supported by record brand awareness of 9.6%, up from 2% in 2018.
Financial Services revenue grew 88% in 2025, driven by the loan platform business, which generated $194 million in Q4 revenue—annualized run rate reached $775 million.
This represents nearly 3x growth from the prior year. The company expects Financial Services revenue growth of at least 40% in 2026.
New crypto initiatives add another dimension of growth. SoFi launched crypto trading, SoFi Pay for international transfers, and SoFi USD stablecoin.
The company plans to offer crypto-backed lending, institutional trading, and business banking services throughout 2026 and beyond.
2. Operating margins: 24.9%
SoFi is sustaining strong profitability while investing heavily in growth. The company delivered 31% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q4, exceeding its original 30% long-term target set at IPO. Management expects 34% EBITDA margins for the full year 2026.
The shift toward fee-based revenue drives margin expansion. Non-interest income grew 2.6x to $249 million in Q4, while maintaining incremental EBITDA margins of 44%. Financial Services contribution margins improved to 51% from 45% year-over-year.
Management maintains discipline by targeting a 30% increase in EBITDA margins, reinvesting the balance in innovation and member acquisition.
The company’s technology platform enables faster product launches—such as the Smart Card built in just 4.5 months—while reducing development costs.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 29x
The market values SoFi at 33.6x forward earnings. We assume the P/E will compress to 29x over our forecast period.
Near-term execution risks from aggressive crypto expansion and business banking launches weigh on the multiple.
The company must navigate regulatory uncertainty despite supportive policies from the current administration. Integration complexity from simultaneous new product launches could strain operations.
As digital banking adoption accelerates and SoFi demonstrates consistent profitability at scale, the company should command a premium multiple. The diversified revenue model, with 44% fee-based income, provides resilience relative to pure-lending competitors.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Fintech companies face regulatory changes and competitive pressures. Here’s how SoFi stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 17.2% and net income margins compress to 19.4%, investors still see a 77% total return (12.3% annually).
- Mid Case: With 19.1% growth and 20.7% margins, we expect a total return of 136% (19.1% annually).
- High Case: If member growth accelerates and SoFi maintains 21.7% margins while growing at 21%, returns could hit 206% total (25.6% annually).
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The range reflects execution on crypto adoption, successful business banking launch, and margin expansion as newer products scale.
In the low case, regulatory headwinds limit crypto opportunities or member acquisition slows.
In the high case, crypto integration exceeds expectations, SoFi Pay achieves rapid international expansion, and business banking captures significant market share faster than anticipated.
How Much Upside Does SoFi Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
