Key Stats for Constellation Brands Stock
- Current Price: $156
- Street Target (Mean): ~$178
- TIKR Model Target Price (Mid): ~$235
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~50%
- Annualized IRR (Mid): ~9% / year
- Earnings Reaction: +8.53% (April 8, 2026)
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What Happened?
Constellation Brands (STZ) shares hit a 52-week low of $126.45 in November 2025, weighed down by a pullback among Hispanic consumers tied to immigration enforcement fears, aluminum tariffs on beer cans imported from Mexico, and a surprise CEO succession announcement in February 2026.
Even after a partial recovery, the stock remains more than 20% below its 52-week high of $196.91. The question investors are asking is whether the damage is already priced in.
The evidence tilted bullish on April 8, 2026. Constellation reported fiscal Q4 results after the close, beating adjusted EPS estimates by nearly 11% ($1.90 actual vs. $1.71 consensus) and posting revenue of $1.92 billion against a $1.88 billion estimate, per TIKR’s Beats & Misses data. Shares jumped 8.53% the next day, the strongest post-earnings reaction in five quarters.
Five days later, TD Cowen upgraded STZ from Hold to Buy, lifting its price target to $190 from $142 and calling fiscal 2027 beer guidance “overly conservative.” The firm pointed to easing year-over-year comparisons, World Cup demand tailwinds, and subsiding pressure on Hispanic consumers.
The stock has since drifted back to $156, erasing the post-earnings gain entirely, which is what investors are now trying to make sense of.
Outgoing CEO Bill Newlands, on the April 9 earnings call, was measured but clear: “We saw depletions up in the quarter, which had not been the case over the prior three quarters. March is off to a solid start, better than planned.”
Nicholas Fink formally took over as CEO on April 13, ending Newlands’ seven-year run during which Constellation’s beer volume grew from roughly 280 million cases to over 400 million.
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Is Constellation Brands Undervalued Today?
At $156, STZ trades at 13.2x next twelve months (NTM) earnings and 11.1x NTM EV/EBITDA, which is the ratio of a company’s total enterprise value to its forward operating profit. For the owner of the number one U.S. beer brand by dollar sales, per CEO Newlands on the earnings call, that is not a premium multiple.
The peer picture from TIKR’s Competitors page adds context. Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world’s largest brewer, trades at 9.3x NTM EV/EBITDA. Keurig Dr. Pepper sits at 10.9x and PepsiCo at 13.0x. STZ at 11.1x is in line with the biggest global brewer, despite Constellation’s beer segment carrying structurally higher margins. CFO Garth Hankinson guided beer operating margins of 37% to 38% for fiscal 2027, per the earnings transcript. That margin profile is difficult to find in beverages at scale.
The Street’s mean target of around $178 implies roughly 14% upside. Thirteen of 24 analysts tracked on TIKR hold a Buy or Outperform rating, with 8 Holds and 2 Underperforms. The bullish camp is growing following the TD Cowen and Evercore ISI upgrades, but the stock has not followed yet.
Three concerns keep bears in the game. Fiscal 2027 beer net sales guidance of negative 1% to positive 1% is modest. The Wine & Spirits segment has contracted from $1.67 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025 to $823.8 million in fiscal 2026, per TIKR Segments data, reflecting divestitures and a Canadian ban on U.S.-sourced wines. And Nicholas Fink is just weeks into the CEO role.
The bull case rests on what is happening underneath the headline numbers. Modelo Especial showed sequential depletion improvement across all five geographic quintiles in Q4, per Newlands on the call, with California posting over one full share point of gains in recent weeks.
Pacifico and Victoria, two emerging brands in the portfolio, both showed strong momentum, and management is investing aggressively behind both in the first half of fiscal 2027. The FIFA World Cup this summer is a direct catalyst.
Newlands named it explicitly: “the World Cup is an outstanding event that provides an opportunity for many of our loyalist consumers to engage with our brands, and we’re going to invest heavily in that.” Beer and soccer structurally over-index with Hispanic consumers, Constellation’s core demographic.
On the cost side, the tariff overhang is more contained than feared. Hankinson confirmed on the earnings call that Constellation entered fiscal 2027 roughly 90% hedged on aluminum and 80% hedged across all major currencies, including the Mexican peso. That limits near-term earnings risk from the tariff headlines that suppressed the stock all year.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $156.00
- TIKR Model Target Price (Mid): ~$235
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~50%
- Annualized IRR (Mid): ~9% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model targets approximately $235 by fiscal year-end 2031, implying around 50% total return and an annualized IRR of roughly 9% from $156. It is a steady-recovery thesis, not a high-growth story.
The two revenue drivers are Modelo’s continued distribution expansion into general market zip codes, where the brand is still building penetration, and the emerging growth arc of Pacifico and Victoria in new markets. The TIKR model assumes a mid-case revenue CAGR of around 2%, a deliberate step down from Constellation’s prior 6% to 8% targets. The margin driver is the Veracruz brewery in Mexico, expected to begin production around mid-fiscal 2027. Hankinson confirmed on the call that Veracruz brings near-term fixed-cost absorption headwinds as it ramps, but structurally lowers cost per case at scale. The mid-case assumes net income margins stabilizing around 22%, in line with the five-year historical average per TIKR data.
The upside: if Pacifico and Victoria accelerate and the World Cup drives measurable demand, the revenue line could outpace the 2% CAGR assumption. The downside: if the Hispanic consumer stays under pressure and Wine & Spirits losses deepen, the path to $235 extends considerably. The primary risk is execution under a new CEO in an uncertain macro environment.
Conclusion
Watch beer depletion growth at Constellation’s Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings on June 26, 2026. If depletions come in positive year-over-year, validating management’s “better than planned” March commentary and TD Cowen’s conservative guidance thesis, the stock at 13x forward earnings will be difficult to dismiss.
Constellation Brands owns the number one U.S. beer franchise, trades near multi-year valuation lows, and has an emerging brand portfolio that has barely begun its national rollout. The stock’s failure to hold its post-earnings gains may be offering a second entry point at a price the TIKR model suggests will look attractive within a few years.
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Should You Invest in Constellation Brands?
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Pull up Constellation Brands, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
