Key Stats for Domino’s Pizza Stock
- Current Price: $367.83
- Street Mean Target: ~$464
- TIKR Target Price (Mid Case): ~$834
- Potential Total Return (Mid Case): ~127%
- Annualized IRR (Mid Case): ~10% / year
- Most Recent Earnings Reaction: +3.46% (Q4 2025, reported February 23, 2026)
- Max Drawdown: 30.02% on March 27, 2026
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What Happened?
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) has fallen more than 26% from its 52-week high of $499.08, and Q1 2026 earnings arrive on April 27.
Bulls say the Hungry for MORE strategy is delivering best-in-class QSR results and that the stock is at a historically compressed multiple ahead of a real catalyst. Bears say the 3% U.S. same-store sales guide leans too heavily on value promotions that are now lapping a strong 2025, and that the drag from Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (DPE), the brand’s largest global franchisee, has not been resolved.
The key question heading into Monday: did the strong Q4 carry into Q1, or did a soft January change the picture?
Multiple analysts cut their price targets in April ahead of the print, citing tighter assumptions around same-store sales and continued macro pressure on the consumer. Their ratings stayed intact. That distinction matters: the concern is about timing and pace, not about the underlying business. DPZ now sits roughly 21% below the Street’s mean target of ~$464.
CEO Russell Weiner addressed the category narrative head-on in the Q4 earnings call. “There seems to be a narrative out there that pizza is a challenged and declining category. That is just not true,” he said.
He pointed to QSR pizza growing roughly 1% to 2% annually since 2019, and argued that a competitor’s struggles reflect Domino’s competitive position rather than category weakness. “Their results are a direct reflection of our strength.”
Shares jumped 3.46% on February 23 after Q4 results showed U.S. same-store sales growth of 3.7% in the quarter, ahead of expectations, and Domino’s announced a 15% increase to its quarterly dividend.
That gain has since fully reversed.
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Is Domino’s Pizza Undervalued Today?
The multiple tells most of the story. DPZ trades at 15.38x NTM EV/EBITDA, down sharply from 20.22x in March 2025. That is a significant de-rating for a business with a 19.3% LTM EBIT margin, around $1 billion in trailing EBITDA, and $509 million in trailing free cash flow.
To put the current multiple in context: McDonald’s trades at around 16.9x NTM EV/EBITDA and Yum! Brands at around 18.2x, both per TIKR’s Competitors page. Domino’s is cheaper than both, despite Weiner’s claim on the Q4 call that Domino’s has been the number one net store grower among all public QSR brands with 3,000-plus U.S. units since 2019. A business growing faster than its peers at a lower multiple than its peers is a reasonable starting point for a valuation argument.
The franchise economics support the bull case. CFO Sandeep Reddy reported average U.S. franchisee store profitability of approximately $166,000 in 2025, up $4,000 year over year. With an average of 9 stores per franchisee, enterprise-level profitability is approaching $1.5 million per operator. That unit economics health drives store openings, and management is guiding to 175-plus net U.S. store additions in 2026, on top of 172 in 2025.
There are real risks on the other side. The 3% full-year SSS guide is front-weighted, with CFO Reddy saying on the call that the comp “will be higher in the first half compared to the back half.” A soft Q1 makes the full-year math harder. The DPE situation is also unresolved.DPE reported its first annual loss in its 20-year public history, and while new CEO Andrew Gregory, a former McDonald’s executive with over 30 years of QSR experience, was announced in February, he does not start until August.
International same-store sales are expected to be guided at just 1% to 2% for 2026, partly as a result. And the company carries $4.9 billion in net debt, with a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of around 4.5x, which limits flexibility in a prolonged downturn.
The underpriced upside is the aggregator ramp. Domino’s only fully rolled out on DoorDash in Q3 2025 and has not yet reached its “fair share” on either major platform. Weiner said on the call that the company handles about 1 in 3 pizza deliveries, but is not at that share on Uber or DoorDash yet. Closing that gap is a multi-year tailwind that is not yet embedded in consensus estimates.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $367.83
- Target Price (Mid Case): ~$834
- Potential Total Return (Mid Case): ~127%
- Annualized IRR (Mid Case): ~10% / year
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The mid case assumes around 4% annual revenue growth through 12/31/30 with net income margins expanding from the current 12.2% toward 13%. The two revenue drivers are U.S. same-store sales compounding on top of existing initiatives and continued global net store growth. The margin driver is supply chain leverage as the franchise base scales. The main risk is a prolonged consumer downturn that forces ongoing promotional spending and keeps margin expansion from happening.
In the high case, around 5% revenue growth with margins near 14% points to roughly $1,006 by 12/31/30, a return of around 173%. In the low case, around 4% growth with margins staying flat still points to roughly $670 and around 82% total return. Even in the low case, the business generates substantial free cash flow regardless of the scenario. Domino’s repurchased approximately 189,000 shares for $80 million in Q4 2025 alone, with around $460 million remaining on its buyback authorization, and the 15% dividend increase in Q4 signals management’s confidence in earnings durability.
Conclusion
Watch U.S. same-store sales on April 27. The full-year guide is 3%, with management signaling H1 runs hotter than H2. A Q1 comp above 3% signals the DoorDash ramp and Best Deal Ever relaunch are holding, and the stock likely moves toward the Street’s mean target. A comp below 2% puts the full-year guide in question and validates the bear case on lapping dynamics.
Domino’s is a proven share gainer sitting at a compressed multiple, with an aggregator ramp still in early innings and a category narrative the market has gotten wrong. Monday’s print is the first real test of whether 2026 is a continuation or a reset.
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Should You Invest in Domino’s Pizza?
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Pull up Domino’s Pizza, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
