Key Stats for Honeywell Stock
- Current Price: $213.17
- Target Price (Mid): ~$317
- Street Target: ~$248
- Potential Total Return: ~49%
- Annualized IRR: ~9% / year
- Earnings Reaction: -0.55% (April 23, 2026)
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What Happened?
Honeywell (HON) stock entered the April 23 earnings print at $226, up roughly 9% year to date. It closed the day down 0.55% and now sits at $213.17, about 14% below its 52-week high of $248.18.
The week’s news was dense: a mixed quarter, weak Q2 guidance, a confirmed Aerospace spin date, two business sales, and a Quantinuum IPO filing, all at once.
The quarter itself was split. Revenue came in at $9.14 billion, up 2.4% year over year but short of the $9.29 billion TIKR consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS of $2.45 beat the $2.32 estimate by 5.55%. Then Q2 guidance landed at $2.35 to $2.45 adjusted EPS against a $2.56 Street consensus, with revenue guidance of $9.4 to $9.6 billion against a $9.7 billion expectation. That shortfall drove the reaction.
CEO Vimal Kapur addressed the two pressure points directly on the call.
The Middle East conflict drove roughly a 0.5% revenue impact in Q1 and is expected to create about a 1% headwind in Q2, concentrated in the high-margin Process Automation and Technology (PA&T) segment, where on-site services and catalyst shipments cannot be rescheduled.
On Aerospace, President Jim Currier described the supply chain disruption as “very acute” and “transitory,” limited to specific mechanical outlines within Engines and Control Systems. Output recovered in March, and that momentum carried into April, giving management confidence in the full-year Aerospace guide.
Kapur’s summary: “Orders were up 7% with growth in all segments, pushing backlog to over $38 billion. Through our relentless focus on productivity and execution, we generated 90 basis points of segment margin expansion.”
Away from the quarter, Honeywell confirmed the Aerospace spin-off will complete on June 29.
It also announced the $1.4 billion all-cash sale of its Productivity Solutions and Services business to Brady Corporation, the sale of its Warehouse and Workflow Solutions business to American Industrial Partners, and Quantinuum’s confidential IPO filing. Four portfolio moves in one week.
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Is Honeywell Undervalued Today?
At $213.17, Honeywell trades at an NTM EV/EBITDA of 15.82x, a narrow premium to Siemens at 15.17x. That gap looks thin for a company about to split into two pure-play businesses, each of which should trade on its own merits rather than a blended conglomerate discount.
The Aerospace segment runs at 26.5% segment margins with a $19 billion backlog that grew 20% year over year. As a standalone defense and commercial aviation company, it would likely command a higher multiple than the current blended figure implies.
Of the 27 analysts covering HON, 12 rate it Buy, 3 Outperform, 9 Hold, 2 Underperform, and 0 Sell. The mean street price target is $248.10, about 16% above current levels. Barclays cut its target to $243 from $255 this week while maintaining Overweight, noting that Aerospace still “has some work to do” on supply chain recovery.
The near-term headwinds have identifiable endpoints. Currier confirmed that the Aerospace supply chain recovery was already visible in March and April output. The Middle East disruption is baked into Q2 guidance and assumed to clear by Q3. That thesis is backed by hard data.
PA&T backlog grew 22% in Q1 following three consecutive strong order quarters. LNG project wins, including agreements for Commonwealth LNG in Louisiana and NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG project in Texas through Bechtel, are final-investment-decision projects with contractual delivery schedules that convert to revenue in the second half of 2026.
Building Automation is the cleanest segment in the portfolio. It has now delivered five or six consecutive quarters of high-single-digit organic growth, per Kapur on the call, with data center and healthcare verticals still accelerating.
The primary risk is straightforward: if the Middle East conflict extends meaningfully into Q3, high-margin services and software revenue stay delayed and free cash flow stays pressured beyond what guidance already reflects. The LTM FCF of $5.1 billion reflects a business capable of strong cash generation when process automation runs normally. Consensus projects FCF near $5 billion for 2026 before recovering toward $6.1 billion by 2027 as PA&T normalizes and Aerospace inventory dynamics unwind.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $213.17
- Target Price (Mid): ~$317
- Potential Total Return: ~49%
- Annualized IRR: ~9% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model targets $316.53 by 12/31/30, implying a total return of around 49% and an annualized IRR of around 9%.
Two revenue drivers underpin the model. First, LNG and PA&T backlog conversion: the $38 billion total company backlog, with PA&T up 22% in Q1, provides concrete revenue visibility through the second half of 2026 and into 2027. Second, Building Automation’s sustained data center and healthcare share gains have driven outperformance against the segment’s own guidance for multiple consecutive quarters. The margin driver is a stranded cost elimination from the Aerospace spin. CFO Mike Stepniak confirmed on the call that this is running ahead of schedule, which represents direct margin upside for RemainCo Automation not yet visible in reported results.
The upside: the spin completes cleanly on June 29, Aerospace trades at a premium multiple as a standalone business, and RemainCo Automation re-rates as a focused industrial software and sensing company. The downside: PA&T stays flat for the year if the Middle East conflict persists into Q3, delaying the second-half revenue ramp already embedded in consensus estimates.
Conclusion
The single metric to watch at Q2 2026 earnings (expected late July) is PA&T organic revenue. If it prints above flat, the second-half ramp is on track. If it misses again, the full-year guide is under pressure. The Aerospace Investor Day on June 2 and 3 in Phoenix and the Honeywell Automation Investor Day on June 11 in New York will give investors their first clean look at both standalone businesses before the spin closes on June 29.
The current price reflects the near-term noise. The $38 billion backlog reflects the longer signal.
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Should You Invest in Honeywell?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
