Key Stats for CAVA Stock
- Past week’s performance: -1.8%
- 52-week range: $43 to $102
- Valuation model target price: $158
- Implied upside: 64.9% over 2.7 years
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What Happened?
CAVA (CAVA) stock was slightly lower this week, but shares still closed near $96 after a strong rebound from recent lows. Investors are focused on whether the Mediterranean fast-casual chain can keep expanding while protecting margins. That matters because the stock trades like a high-growth restaurant concept, not a mature food chain.
The latest major catalyst remains CAVA’s fiscal 2025 report. Revenue grew 22.5% to $1.17 billion, and same-restaurant sales rose 4.0%. Same-restaurant sales measure growth at existing locations, so they show whether demand is improving beyond new store openings.
CAVA also opened 72 net new restaurants in fiscal 2025, bringing its total restaurant count to 439. The company’s expansion remains central to the stock because new units drive most of the revenue growth. Reuters also reported that CAVA guided for 2026 same-restaurant sales growth of 3.0% to 5.0%, above the 3.16% analyst estimate.
Recent news reinforced the expansion story. CAVA opened its first St. Louis-area restaurant in Cottleville, Missouri, and announced that director Karen Kochevar will retire from the board after her current term. The next test is whether CAVA can keep opening stores and growing traffic without pressuring profitability going forward.
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Is CAVA Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 21.8%
- Operating Margins: 6.3%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 135.8x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $158, implying 64.9% total upside from the current share price and a 20.4% annualized return over the next 2.7 years.
That return profile looks attractive, but the valuation is demanding. CAVA trades around 180.8x next-twelve-month earnings and 7.7x next-twelve-month revenue. Those multiples require strong unit growth, positive traffic, and better restaurant-level efficiency.
The business is still scaling quickly. LTM revenue is $1.18 billion, gross margin is 37.4%, and EBIT margin is 5.1%. The margin profile shows CAVA is profitable, but still early in building operating leverage.
The market is already cautious on valuation. The average street target price is $86.88, below the current share price. So the model’s upside depends on CAVA delivering a longer runway of restaurant growth than analysts currently price in.
What’s Driving CAVA Stock Going Forward?
The next major catalyst is Q1 earnings, expected on May 12. Investors will focus on traffic, same-restaurant sales, and restaurant-level profit margin. These metrics show whether CAVA is growing because more customers are visiting, not just because menu prices are higher.
Restaurant expansion remains the largest driver. CAVA ended fiscal 2025 with 439 restaurants and is still entering new markets. New locations can grow revenue quickly, but they also bring pre-opening costs and execution risk.
Food and labor costs will also matter. CAVA’s fiscal 2025 restaurant-level profit margin was 24.4%, and Reuters reported 2026 guidance of 23.7% to 24.2%. If commodity or wage inflation rises, margins could tighten even if sales grow.
Liquidity supports the expansion plan. CAVA extended its credit facility maturity to March 2031 and increased revolving commitments to $150 million. That gives the company more flexibility to fund growth, but investors will still watch whether new stores generate attractive returns going forward.
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Should You Invest in CAVA Group?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up CAVA, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track CAVA alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
