Key Stats for Citigroup Stock
- Price Change: +6.0%
- Current Price: ~$123
- Advanced Model Target: $154
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What Happened?
Citigroup (C) surged 6.0% to close near $123 on Friday.
The rally was driven by a strong Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings report, which validated the bank’s multi-year restructuring efforts.
Citigroup reported net income of $2.5 billion for the quarter, generating positive operating leverage across the majority of its five businesses.
The Services division continued to be the star performer, with revenues up 8% and a Return on Tangible Common Equity (RoTCE) of over 28% for the year.
Wealth revenues also grew 7%, driven by strength in Citigold and the Private Bank, signaling stabilization in a key growth area.
Shareholders were rewarded with $4.5 billion in buybacks during the quarter, capping off a year where the bank returned over $17.5 billion in total capital.
The TIKR Valuation Model suggests the rally has legs, projecting a Target Price of $154, which implies the stock is still undervalued relative to its improved return profile.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Citigroup stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Citigroup Undervalued Today?
During the earnings call, CEO Jane Fraser highlighted the tangible progress of the transformation.
She stated: “We reported another strong quarter to close out what was a very good year of progress indeed… We have made significant progress in terms of our transformation.”
Fraser emphasized the operational improvements, noting: “Over 80% of our programs are now at or nearly at our target state… the OCC’s removal of Article 17 of the consent order in December.”
Outgoing CFO Mark Mason reinforced the commitment to shareholder returns.
He stated: “We will continue to prioritize returning capital to shareholders through buybacks as evidenced by the $4.5 billion of buybacks in the fourth quarter.”
Read the full Citigroup Transcript on TIKR to see the 2026 Outlook >>>
According to TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model, the stock is trading below its fair value as it exits its restructuring phase.
- Target Price: $154
- Current Price: ~$123
- Potential Upside: +25.5%
Valuation Deep Dive
The investment case for Citigroup is a “self-help” story driven by efficiency and capital return.
With the stock trading at ~$123, the market is beginning to credit the bank for its improved ROTCE, but the $154 target implies full credit for the transformation.
- The Services Moat: The Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) business generated 15% revenue growth in the quarter, providing a high-margin, sticky revenue base.
- The Expense Discipline: Management expects to maintain an efficiency ratio of around 60% in 2026, driving margin expansion as transformation costs wind down.
- The Value Gap: The $154 target reflects the bank’s ability to consistently return excess capital while growing tangible book value.
If Citigroup can hit its target of 10-11% RoTCE in 2026, the path to $154 is supported by fundamental earnings power and a re-rating of the stock’s multiple.
Conclusion: Transformation taking hold. With a 25.5% upside potential to $154, Citigroup offers a compelling value play for investors betting on the successful completion of one of Wall Street’s biggest turnaround stories.
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How Much Upside Does Citigroup Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
