Key Takeaways:
- Industry Read-Through: Carrier Global stock reflects sector pressure after Nvidia comments reduced perceived data center cooling demand, a segment representing about 5% of Carrier Global revenue.
- Strategic Expansion: Carrier Global stock reflects execution momentum after Automated Logic acquired CCG Automation, expanding building automation exposure in Ohio and strengthening HVAC services scale.
- Price Projection: Based on 2% revenue growth, 16% operating margins, and a 21x exit multiple, Carrier Global stock could reach $70 by 2027.
- Upside Math: That target implies 18% total upside from the current $60 price, translating into roughly 9% annualized returns for Carrier Global stock.
Carrier Global (CARR) provides HVAC and refrigeration systems globally, competing with Trane and Johnson Controls across residential, commercial, and transport cooling markets.
In early January, Carrier Global stock declined 1% after Nvidia comments suggested lower future data center cooling needs, affecting about 5% of Carrier Global sales.
Carrier Global generated roughly $22 billion in revenue, reflecting broad demand across HVAC equipment, aftermarket services, and transport refrigeration solutions.
The company produced about $3 billion in operating profit with a 14% margin, highlighting disciplined cost control across a diversified manufacturing footprint.
With a $50 billion market value and shares near $60, Carrier Global’s improving fundamentals contrast restrained valuation assumptions, setting up a tension worth examining further.
What the Model Says for CARR Stock
We assessed CARR stockl using recent operating results, disciplined capital allocation, and HVAC and refrigeration positioning across global end markets.
Based on 1.6% revenue growth, 15.9% operating margins, and a 21.0x exit multiple, the model estimates $70.45.
That outcome implies $70.45, or 18.2% total upside and a 9.1% annual return over 1.9 years.
Test how small changes in HVAC growth and margins impact Carrier Global’s upside on TIKR for free →
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for CARR stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 1.6%
Carrier Global generated about $22 billion in LTM revenue, with recent growth slowing as HVAC demand normalized after earlier post-pandemic replacement cycles.
Execution shows steadier equipment volumes, recurring service revenue, and modest refrigeration demand amid softer North American construction.
Future growth depends on replacement cycles, automation acquisitions, and efficiency upgrades, offset by macro and data center risks.
According to consensus analyst estimates, 1.6% revenue growth reflects stable replacement demand without cyclical acceleration.
2. Operating Margins: 15.9%
CARR stockl recently posted operating margins near 14%, supported by scale, pricing discipline, and cost control.
Margins declined from prior highs, but automation services and aftermarket sales support gradual recovery.
Efficiency gains from acquisitions and disciplined spending offset raw material volatility, though competitive pricing limits rapid margin expansion.
In line with analyst consensus projections, operating margins near 15.9% reflect normalization within Carrier Global’s cost structure.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 21x
CARR stock trades near low-20x earnings, reflecting stable cash flow but caution around cyclical HVAC and data center exposure.
Historically, the stock has supported similar multiples during periods of steady earnings and moderate growth, without requiring aggressive expansion assumptions.
Valuation depends on execution, margin stability, and capital returns, while cooling demand headlines restrain expectations.
Based on street consensus estimates, a 21.0x exit multiple supports a $70.45 target and a 9.1% annualized return.
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
CARR stock’s outcomes hinge on HVAC replacement demand, service mix, and cost discipline through 2029.
- Low Case: If replacement demand remains weak, revenue grows 2.3% and margins stay near 10.5%, producing a 3.0% annualized return.
- Mid Case: With steady HVAC execution, revenue grows 2.6% and margins rise toward 11.2%, resulting in an 8.0% annualized return.
- High Case: If automation services scale and costs hold, revenue reaches 2.8% with margins near 11.6%, supporting a 12.5% annualized return.
The $81 mid-case target is achievable through steady execution and service mix gains, without requiring multiple expansion or narrative-driven re-rating.
How Much Upside Does It Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
