Key Takeaways:
- AI Data Center Boom: 124% growth for 2025 in IT datacom, driven by surging AI infrastructure demand
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, APH stock could reach $193 by December 2028
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 34% from the current price of $144
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 10.5% growth over the next 2.9 years
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Amphenol Corporation (APH) just closed its largest acquisition ever with the $10.5 billion CommScope deal for CCS business while posting record quarterly revenue of $6.4 billion. The company grew sales 52% in 2025, reaching $23.1 billion and more than doubling its size in just four years.
CEO Adam Norwitt is executing an aggressive expansion strategy centered on AI infrastructure. The company booked a record $8.4 billion in orders during Q4, up 68% year-over-year, resulting in a robust 1.31:1 book-to-bill ratio.
IT datacom sales surged 110% in the quarter, fueled by AI applications. Adjusted operating margin hit a record 27.5%, up 510 basis points from the prior year. The company expects to generate operating cash flow of $5.4 billion while completing multiple acquisitions in 2025.
Despite extraordinary momentum, Amphenol stock trades at $144, offering upside for investors who recognize the company’s position in AI infrastructure.
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What the Model Says for Amphenol Stock
We analyzed Amphenol through its transformation into a dominant interconnect supplier for AI data centers with unmatched product breadth.
The company is expanding beyond traditional copper interconnects. The CommScope (Connectivity and Cable Solutions (CCS)) segment acquisition adds leading fiber optic capabilities, creating a comprehensive offering for customers building next-generation data centers. With AI infrastructure investments accelerating globally, Amphenol is capturing content gains as systems require more complex, higher-speed interconnect solutions.
The company now serves a diverse customer base with no single customer exceeding 10% of sales. This broad exposure provides resilience while the AI buildout creates unprecedented demand for high-speed power and fiber optic products.
Using a forecast of 18.2% annual revenue growth and 27.1% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $193 within 2.9 years. This assumes a 28.2x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression from Amphenol’s historical P/E averages of 33.8x (one year) and 30.6x (five years). The lower multiple acknowledges integration risks from the CommScope acquisition and potential moderation in AI infrastructure spending.
The real value lies in sustaining the AI infrastructure ramp while expanding fiber optic capabilities and maintaining industry-leading margins.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for APH stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 18.2%
Amphenol’s growth centers on AI infrastructure expansion.
The company achieved 124% organic growth in IT datacom for 2025, driven by strong demand for products used in AI applications. Management expects this momentum to continue as customers extend their order windows and commit to significant AI investments.
The CommScope (CCS segment) acquisition adds approximately $4.1 billion in annualized sales. This business strengthens Amphenol’s position in fiber optic interconnects, a critical component as data centers scale to handle AI workloads. Beyond AI, the company maintains solid positions across defense, commercial aerospace, automotive, and industrial markets.
2. Operating margins: 27.1%
Amphenol is sustaining record profitability while scaling operations.
The company delivered 27.5% adjusted operating margin in Q4, matching its Q3 record. This performance reflects strong operational execution across a 38% organic revenue increase. With majority of its enterprise solutions in the cloud, Amphenol leverages technology to drive efficiency.
CommScope will dilute margins initially, operating in the high teens. However, management has a track record of bringing acquired businesses up to company average over time.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 28.2x
The market values Amphenol at 32.9x earnings. We assume the P/E will compress to 28.2x over our forecast period.
Near-term integration complexity from the CommScope (CCS business) acquisition weighs on the multiple. The company must successfully combine operations while maintaining growth momentum across both legacy and acquired businesses.
As AI infrastructure spending continues and Amphenol demonstrates execution, the company should command a premium multiple. The entrepreneurial operating model with 145 general managers provides agility to navigate market dynamics while capturing opportunities.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Connector companies face technology transitions and capital spending cycles. Here’s how Amphenol stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2028:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 11.4% and net income margins compress to 18.2%, investors still see a 29.2% total return (5.4% annually).
- Mid Case: With 12.7% growth and 19.3% margins, we expect a total return of 62.7% (10.4% annually).
- High Case: If AI infrastructure accelerates and Amphenol maintains 20.1% margins while growing at 13.9%, returns could hit 98.7% total (15.0% annually).
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The range reflects execution on AI infrastructure demand, successful CommScope (CCS segment) integration, and margin expansion as the acquired business scales.
In the low case, AI spending moderates or integration challenges emerge.
In the high case, AI infrastructure demand exceeds expectations, fiber optic content grows faster than anticipated, and CommScope margins improve ahead of schedule.
How Much Upside Does Amphenol Stock Have From Here?
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- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
