Key Takeaways:
- Revenue Growth: 15.7% annually through 2029, driven by digital infrastructure expansion.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, OWL stock could reach $24 by December 2029.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 79% from the current price of $14.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 16% growth over the next 3.9 years.
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Blue Owl Capital (OWL) is capitalizing on a massive shift in how assets are financed globally. The alternative asset manager has positioned itself at the intersection of credit, digital infrastructure, and GP stakes investing.
- Co-CEO Marc Lipschultz is executing a strategy that leverages structural market changes.
- With $57 billion in capital raised over the last 12 months—equivalent to 24% of last year’s total AUM—Blue Owl is delivering consistent growth despite market volatility.
- The company recently announced several major data center financing deals, including a $30 billion investment with Meta in Louisiana and over $20 billion with Oracle in New Mexico.
- These partnerships underscore Blue Owl’s position as the preferred capital partner for hyperscalers driving cloud and AI innovation.
Blue Owl expects to return over $360 million in management fees as it deploys $28 billion of committed but undeployed capital over the next couple of years.
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What the Model Says for Blue Owl Stock
We analyzed Blue Owl’s transformation into a diversified alternative asset manager with leading positions in high-growth sectors.
The company is expanding aggressively in digital infrastructure while maintaining strong performance in direct lending and alternative credit.
The launch of new wealth products, including a digital infrastructure interval fund and alternative credit offerings, is opening new distribution channels.
Credit quality remains excellent, with an average annual realized loss rate of just 13 basis points across $150 billion of originations over the past decade. The alternative credit business has raised over $1 billion for its new interval fund in less than 12 months.
Using a forecast of 18.5% annual revenue growth and a 55.7% net income margin, our model projects the stock price will rise to $18 in 1.9 years. This assumes a 12.3x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression from Blue Owl’s historical P/E averages of 19.8x (one year) and 22.1x (five years). The lower multiple reflects near-term uncertainty around private credit markets and broader alternative asset valuations.
The real value lies in executing the digital infrastructure strategy and continuing to scale the wealth distribution business while maintaining strong credit performance.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for OWL stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 15.7%
Blue Owl’s growth centers on three pillars: digital infrastructure expansion, wealth product launches, and continued fundraising momentum.
The company has committed 90% of its Net Lease Fund VI capital, with robust deployment expected as data center projects reach completion.
Management expects meaningful acceleration in real assets management fee growth, with mid-single-digit quarterly growth anticipated.
The digital infrastructure business has over $100 billion in pipeline opportunities. With hyperscalers accelerating capital spending beyond initial projections, demand for Blue Owl’s financing capabilities continues to expand.
In private wealth, the company has raised over $16 billion in the last 12 months, more than doubling its pace from two years ago. New products like ORENT and the digital infrastructure trust are seeing strong early adoption.
2. Operating margins: 42.4%
Blue Owl maintains industry-leading margins while investing heavily in growth initiatives.
The company prioritizes long-term expansion over short-term margin optimization. Management has been clear that they will continue investing in future growth rather than extracting the last dollar of profitability today.
Fee-related earnings grew 19% over the last 12 months, with 86% of management fee growth coming from permanent capital vehicles. This durability provides visibility into future earnings.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 12.3x
The market values Blue Owl at 14.7x earnings. We assume the P/E will compress to 12.3x over our forecast period.
Recent volatility in private credit markets, driven by isolated fraud cases and headline risk, has weighed on valuations of alternative asset managers.
Despite Blue Owl having no exposure to the troubled credits making headlines, the entire sector has faced selling pressure.
As the company continues to deliver strong fundraising results and maintain excellent credit quality, the multiple should stabilize.
Blue Owl generates highly predictable fee streams from permanent capital vehicles, which should support valuation over time.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Alternative asset managers face market cycles and shifts in investor sentiment. Here’s how Blue Owl stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2029:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 14.1% and margins compress to 40%, investors still see a 40% total return (8.9% annually).
- Mid Case: With 15.7% growth and 42.4% margins, we expect a total return of 79% (16% annually).
- High Case: If digital infrastructure deployment accelerates and Blue Owl maintains 44% margins while growing at 17.3%, total returns could reach 122% (22.6% annually).
See what analysts think about OWL stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
The range reflects execution on data center financing opportunities, success in wealth distribution, and the timing of a recovery in private credit market sentiment.
In the low case, fundraising momentum slows, or credit concerns persist through 2026.
In the high case, hyperscaler spending continues accelerating, wealth products gain faster adoption, and Blue Owl captures additional market share in digital infrastructure financing.
How Much Upside Does Blue Owl Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
