Key Takeaways:
- Revenue Growth: AFFO per share earnings grew by 5.3% in Q3, driven by rent escalators and selective acquisitions.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, VICI stock could reach $33.84 by December 2027.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 20.5% from the current price of $28.08.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 10.2% growth over the next 1.9 years.
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VICI Properties (VICI) just added its 14th tenant with the Clairvest transaction involving MGM Northfield Park. The gaming-focused REIT grew AFFO per share by 5.3% year-over-year in Q3, demonstrating resilience during uncertain market conditions.
- CEO Ed Pitoniak is executing a disciplined capital allocation strategy that focuses on quality over quantity.
- With 5x debt-to-EBITDA leverage and margins exceeding 90%, VICI maintains one of the most efficient models in the triple-net lease sector.
- The company declared its eighth consecutive annual dividend increase, raising the quarterly payout by 4% to $0.45 per share.
Despite near-term headwinds in Las Vegas leisure travel, VICI stock trades at $28.08, offering upside for investors who recognize the company’s fortress balance sheet and diversification efforts.
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What the Model Says for VICI Properties Stock
We analyzed VICI’s transformation into a diversified experiential real estate powerhouse with unmatched tenant relationships.
The company owns nearly 6 million square feet of convention space on the Las Vegas Strip, positioning it to benefit from the city’s growing dominance in group business.
Management is exploring expansion into collegiate sports infrastructure and other experiential sectors beyond traditional casino gaming.
Using a 3.5% annual revenue growth forecast and a 95.3% operating margin, our model projects the stock price will rise to $33.84 in 1.9 years. This assumes a 9.4x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression from VICI’s historical P/E averages of 11.2x (one year) and 12.9x (three years).
The lower multiple acknowledges near-term uncertainty around Caesars’ regional portfolio review and softer Las Vegas leisure trends.
The real value lies in VICI’s triple-net lease model, which generates 90%+ margins; its rent escalators provide predictable cash flow growth; and management’s resourcefulness in navigating tenant challenges while maintaining credit quality.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for VICI stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 3.5%
VICI’s growth centers on contractual rent escalators and selective capital deployment. The company’s leases include built-in annual rent increases, providing visibility into baseline revenue growth without significant capital investment.
Management expects to maintain leverage at the low end of their 5x-5.5x target range. This disciplined approach prioritizes balance sheet strength over aggressive expansion.
The company is exploring new opportunities in collegiate sports infrastructure and other experiential sectors. These investments could accelerate growth if management identifies assets that meet their strict investment criteria for durability, creditworthiness, and risk-adjusted returns.
2. Operating margins: 95.3%
VICI operates one of the most efficient real estate models. With G&A representing just 1.6% of revenue, the company achieves margins in the high-90 % range after excluding non-cash items.
The triple-net lease structure transfers operating expenses to tenants, allowing VICI to generate substantial cash flow with minimal overhead.
This efficiency enables the company to grow AFFO per share even during periods of limited investment activity.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 9.4x
The market currently values VICI at 9.9x earnings. We assume the P/E will compress slightly to 9.4x over our forecast period.
Questions around Caesars’ regional casino portfolio and softer Las Vegas leisure trends weigh on the multiple. However, VICI’s contractual rent escalators, diversified tenant base, and fortress balance sheet should support a reasonable valuation as these uncertainties resolve.
The company’s track record of successfully navigating tenant challenges—from asset dispositions to lease amendments—demonstrates management’s ability to protect shareholder value through various market cycles.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
REITs face economic cycles and tenant-specific challenges. Here’s how VICI stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 2.8% and margin compresses, investors still see a 25.8% total return (6.0% annually).
- Mid Case: With 3.1% growth and margins remaining at current levels, we expect a total return of 46.6% (10.2% annually).
- High Case: If management accelerates deployment into new sectors while maintaining margin expansion at 3.4% growth, returns could reach 67.0% total (14.0% annually).
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The range reflects execution on tenant relationships, success in diversifying beyond casino gaming, and timing of new investment opportunities.
In the low case, Caesars portfolio challenges drag on, or Las Vegas remains soft through 2027.
In the high case, convention demand rebounds strongly, collegiate sports investments gain traction, and VICI expands its tenant roster with high-quality experiential operators.
How Much Upside Does VICI Properties Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
