Key Takeaways
- Boeing shares fell 12% in the past week, nearly all of it on Tuesday, Oct. 27, after its third-quarter report and earnings call.
- CEO Kelly Ortberg said it will take into next year to get 737 production stable at 47 a month, and that 737 deliveries will fall short of the 500 targeted for 2026.
- Boeing’s new free cash flow targets don’t reach $10 billion until 2029, and they’re below what Wall Street expected for 2027 and 2028.
- At a 52-week low, Boeing looks like a reasonable buy for patient investors, as long as the 737 ramp doesn’t slip again.
Boeing (BA) is down 12% in the past week through Tuesday’s close, nearly all of it on Tuesday, Oct. 27, when the stock closed at a fresh 52-week low. Shares rose premarket on the third-quarter results, then sank on the call.
A Miss, Then a Worse Call
Boeing lost $0.34 a share on a core basis, against the $0.21 loss analysts expected, and Commercial Airplanes ran a -6.5% margin. The good parts: free cash flow was a positive $464 million, and the backlog hit a record $745 billion.
The call is what broke the stock. “It is taking us longer than we had expected to demonstrate performance at rate 47,” CEO Kelly Ortberg told analysts. He expects getting the 737 fully stable at that rate to run into next year, with wings still the bottleneck, and Boeing will deliver fewer than the 500 737s it targeted for 2026.
That stings, since the FAA certified the 737 MAX 10 on Oct. 20, clearing the way for more than 1,555 orders. Wings were already a sore spot: late on Friday, Oct. 23, Reuters reported that a fight with one supplier over a single wing part had idled 777 freighter production for nearly two months.
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The Cash Payoff Just Moved Out a Year
Management also set free cash flow targets on the call: $2 billion this year, $3 billion in 2027, about $6 billion in 2028 and $10 billion in 2029. Jefferies called the long-term targets “disappointing,” and the gap shows why: before the call, Wall Street expected roughly $5.5 billion in 2027 and $9.8 billion in 2028.
That $10 billion would also be more than double Boeing’s best year since 2021.
Even 2026 is tight. Boeing is still negative on free cash flow through nine months, so the fourth quarter has to carry the year: hitting $2 billion takes about $2.4 billion in that quarter alone.
Is Boeing Stock a Buy at a 52-Week Low?
Boeing’s roughly $133 billion market value is about 13x the $10 billion of free cash flow it targets for 2029, and it still carries about $25 billion of net debt. Analysts’ consensus target of $267 sits nearly 60% above Tuesday’s close.
With $745 billion of orders on the books, demand isn’t Boeing’s problem. Wings are, and Tuesday’s drop already prices in a slower ramp. For investors who can wait out 2027, that makes the stock a reasonable buy here.
Another slip would push the cash out again. Monthly 737 deliveries are the first check, then fourth-quarter results in late January, with the $2 billion target on the line.
So what is Boeing stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
