Boeing Reports $22.2B in Q1 Revenue as All Three Segments Grow Simultaneously

Key Stats

• Current Price: ~$232
• Q1 2026 Revenue: $22.2B (+14% YoY)
• Q1 2026 Adj. Core EPS: ($0.20), improved from ($0.49) in Q1 2025
• Q1 2026 Operating Margin: 1.7%
• 2026 Delivery Guidance: 737: 500 aircraft; 787: 90 to 100 aircraft
• 2026 Free Cash Flow Guidance: $1B to $3B
• TIKR Model Price Target: $2,048 (mid-case)
• Implied Upside Over ~5 Years: +781%

Boeing posted $22.2B in revenue and held its free cash flow guide, but the margin structure is still being rebuilt.

BA Q1 2026 Earnings Breakdown

Boeing stock (BA) delivered $22.2B in Q1 2026 revenue, up 14% from $19.5B in the prior-year quarter, with an adjusted core loss per share of ($0.20) sharply narrowed from ($0.49) a year ago.

Defense and Space was the fastest-growing segment, with revenue up 21% to $7.6B on higher volume in KC-46 tanker, missiles and weapons, and classified programs.

Operating margin in BDS reached 3.1%, up 60 basis points year over year, while the segment booked $9B in new orders and reached a record backlog of $86B.

Commercial Airplanes posted revenue of $9.2B, up 13% year over year, as the team delivered 114 737s and 15 787s in the quarter for a total of 143 aircraft.

BCA operating margin came in at (6.1%), an improvement from a year ago, though the segment absorbed dilution from the Spirit AeroSystems acquisition completed in 2025.

Global Services continued to be Boeing’s most profitable segment, with revenue of $5.4B, up 6% reported (up 13% excluding the Digital Aviation Solutions divestiture) and an operating margin of 18.1%.

A wiring nonconformance finding affected 25 aircraft in the quarter and pushed some 737 deliveries into Q2, but the rework was completed with no impact to the full-year target of 500 deliveries.

On the 787, seat certification delays constrained Q1 deliveries to 15 aircraft, though the full-year range of 90 to 100 aircraft remains intact, with a planned production rate increase to 10 per month later in 2026.

Free cash flow was an outflow of $1.5B in Q1, better than management’s own expectations, driven by the rapid resolution of the 737 wiring issue and favorable collection timing late in the quarter, according to Jay Malave, Executive Vice President and CFO, on the Q1 2026 earnings call.

The full-year free cash flow guide of $1B to $3B was reaffirmed, with Q2 expected to narrow to a low-hundreds-of-millions outflow and the back half turning positive.

On the 777X program, the FAA cleared Boeing for TIA 4a natural ice testing in the quarter, and GE identified root cause for the engine durability issue flagged last quarter, with a modification plan being finalized ahead of first delivery in 2027.

All three segments grew in Q1, but the path to $10B in free cash flow runs through years of execution risk.

Boeing Stock: What the Financials Show

The Q1 2026 income statement reflects a company still rebuilding its margin structure, with operating profitability positive but narrow and gross margins recovering unevenly from a deeply negative cycle that bottomed in late 2024.

Gross margin came in at 11.5% in Q1 2026, below the 12.4% posted in Q1 2025 but a significant improvement over the 7.6% recorded in Q4 2025 and the negative gross margins that characterized Q3 2025 and Q4 2024.

Gross profit was $2.55B, up from $2.42B in the prior-year quarter, a 5.3% year-over-year gain.

Operating income was $380M in Q1 2026, down from $510M in Q1 2025, with operating margin contracting from 2.6% to 1.7%.

The compression relative to Q1 2025 reflects a lower FAS/CAS pension adjustment as the primary driver, partially offset by higher segment earnings, according to Jay Malave on the Q1 2026 earnings call.

The trajectory from Q3 2025 through Q1 2026 tells a recovery arc: operating income moved from a ($4.75B) loss in Q3 2025, to a ($760M) loss in Q4 2025, to positive $380M in Q1 2026, anchored by delivery volume recovery and improving Defense segment performance.

What Does the Valuation Model Say?

TIKR’s mid-case model prices Boeing stock at $2,048, implying +781% upside from the current price of approximately $232, with the target realized at year-end 2030.

The model assumes a revenue CAGR of 7.6% and a net income margin of 4.3%, both representing substantial normalization from Boeing’s recent loss-making history.

This Q1 result strengthens the execution case: FCF guidance held, segment margins improved across all three businesses, and the 737 wiring issue was resolved cleanly without impacting the delivery plan.

The investment case for Boeing stock is incrementally stronger after this quarter, with no guidance reductions, no major EAC charges, and three segments growing simultaneously for the first time in years.

The central tension for Boeing stock is not whether the recovery is real, but whether the runway to positive BCA margins and $10B in free cash flow is short enough to justify the valuation gap at today’s price.

What Has to Go Right

• 737 production reaches 47/month this summer and the North Line in Everett activates later in 2026 to support the step to 52/month, driving the delivery volume that unlocks BCA margin improvement
• 777X clears TIA 4b testing in the near term and remains on track for first delivery in 2027, enabling a new revenue stream from Boeing’s highest-ASP widebody
• BDS sustains its margin recovery toward high single digits on a record $86B backlog, with tanker deliveries rising from 14 to 19 units this year providing near-term cash conversion
• BCA margins turn positive by mid-2027 as guided, allowing Boeing to compound delivery volume growth with improving unit economics and cost absorption

What Could Still Go Wrong

• 787 seat certification delays are not resolved linearly: if the backlog of built-but-undelivered aircraft continues to grow, it will constrain cash collections and delay the FCF ramp despite strong production metrics
• Middle East conflict affects 14% of unit backlog, and while no deferrals have been requested as of Q1, any escalation that interrupts the 737 delivery cadence could push FCF below the $1B to $3B guide
• The Spirit AeroSystems integration is explicitly dilutive to BCA margins in 2026, with a roughly $1B annual cash drag expected to persist into 2027, delaying the inflection to positive BCA operating margins
• The path to $10B in free cash flow assumes sustained production rate increases across a multi-year window, and any setback in FAA certification timelines on the 737-7, 737-10, or 777X compresses the timeline and extends the discount period

The 737 wiring issue is resolved, BDS hit a record backlog, and the loss per share narrowed. The recovery is real, but slow.

Should You Invest in The Boeing Company?

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