Key Takeaways
- Aura Minerals fell 15% today as gold slid below $4,000 and miners including Newmont, Agnico Eagle and Aris Mining sold off.
- Aura fell more than twice as hard as the gold miners ETF, a sign of how closely the stock trades with gold.
- Analysts expect Aura’s normalized EPS to more than double in 2026 after record third-quarter production.
- Next week’s results will show whether that output is turning into free cash flow.
Aura Minerals (AUGO) sank 15% today with no news of its own. Gold fell about 3% to under $4,000 an ounce, a four-month low, as traders bet on more Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Newmont (NEM) and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), the two biggest holdings in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), fell 5% and 6%, and the ETF lost 5%. Aris Mining (ARIS) dropped 9%. Just brutal.
And with macro trades like this – the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater.
The big miners are still minting cash
Newmont reported $1.9 billion of free cash flow in the third quarter. It sold gold at an average of $4,317 an ounce, and its all-in sustaining costs were $1,454. Gold at around $3,900 is about 10% below that price, which still leaves a wide margin on every ounce.
Agnico Eagle has a 74.5% gross margin over the past 12 months. It doesn’t sell its gold forward, so it gets whatever the gold price is. If gold stays under $4,000, how much of that margin shows up in either company’s fourth quarter?
Aura swings harder both ways
Aura’s stock soared 10% on Oct. 9 after it reported record third-quarter production of 95,557 gold equivalent ounces, up 29% from a year earlier.
Analysts expect that output to lift normalized EPS to $6.23 in 2026 and $7.85 in 2027, from $2.63 in 2025. Only three analysts make those estimates, though:
Those estimates should only come down if gold keeps falling.
Aura’s forward P/E was 11x at the last close. That’s a bit above its five-year average of 10x and far below its 2025 peak of 24x:
Today’s drop takes it to about 9x.
TIKR tracks 10 analysts on Aura Minerals. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Aura Minerals, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Aura Minerals’ Analyst Ratings
Next week’s report is the real test
Aura’s third-quarter results come out next week and will show whether the record output turned into cash. Free cash flow has been uneven. It dropped to $27.6 million in the second quarter from $73.8 million in the first:
Aura has also missed analysts’ earnings estimates in each of its last four quarters.
Today’s selling was about gold. At about 9x forward earnings, Aura looks like a buy to me if next week’s report shows cash flow catching up with production. But if gold keeps sliding, expect Aura to keep falling harder than Newmont and Agnico Eagle, as it and Aris Mining did today.
So what is Aura Minerals stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
