Key Stats for Roblox Stock
- Current Price: $52.46
- Target Price (Mid): ~$86
- Street Target: ~$50 (October 29, 2026)
- Potential Total Return: ~64%
- Annualized IRR: ~13% / year
What Happened?
Roblox (RBLX) beat its own third-quarter bookings forecast and still sold off. Shares fell more than 17% in premarket trading on October 30, Benzinga reported, after daily active users dropped 9% from a year earlier to 138 million. The fourth-quarter outlook also builds in a modest hit from Take-Two’s (TTWO) Grand Theft Auto VI, which launches November 19 on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S.
Roblox’s shareholder letter guides Q4 bookings down 10% to 15%, about $1.89 billion to $2.00 billion. That sits below TIKR’s average estimate of about $2.02 billion, though the median of about $1.97 billion falls inside the range. GAAP revenue rose 16% to $1.572 billion. Q3 bookings fell 12% to $1.70 billion but topped the roughly $1.62 billion consensus, after misses in Q1 and Q2.
Retention Rose From Q2. Payers Fell 16% From a Year Ago
CEO David Baszucki pointed to “tough compares” with Q3 2025 and said Roblox “achieved the highest seasonally adjusted overall platform retention since 2021.” Daily users rose 12% from Q2, and hours rose 17% to nearly 34 billion, though hours were still down 15% from a year earlier. CFO Naveen Chopra said retention was aided in part by the recommendation algorithm, which helped new titles like Steal an Egg build sizable audiences quickly. In Q3, 40% of the top 1,000 games by hours had launched in the prior 90 days.
Payers did not follow. Average monthly unique payers fell 16% to 30 million from a year earlier, while bookings per payer rose 5%. Chopra said monetization headwinds “did continue in the quarter, particularly with younger cohorts in the U.S.” For Q4 guidance, he said “we don’t assume short-term improvement in monetization.” The outlook assumes a normal seasonal drop in daily users and does not count on recent hit-game and Halloween strength repeating.
TIKR tracks 34 analysts on Roblox. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Roblox, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Roblox’s Analyst Ratings
Adults and AI Get the Money Now, With Payoffs Dated 2027
In the U.S., daily users aged 18 and over grew 18% year over year and 89% over two years, Baszucki said. He added that 18-and-up users monetize “50% or more than our under 18 cohort.” Chopra said users acquired through paid marketing are outperforming organic sign-ups on retention, engagement and monetization, and marketing aimed at adults will keep rising.
That spending lands first, along with AI infrastructure for Build, Roblox Reality and the Universal Player. Q4 capital spending is planned at $380 million, including about $140 million shifted from Q3, compared with $83 million in the first nine months. The payoffs come later:
- December 2026: a broader U.S. release of Build.
- First half of 2027: the first phase of Roblox Everywhere, which publishes select top titles as stand-alone app-store games. Roblox estimates the launch timing.
Roblox can fund the wait. At September 30 it held $6.24 billion of cash and investments against $1.01 billion of long-term debt, in line with the roughly $5 billion of net cash Chopra cited. It also repurchased $580 million of stock in the first nine months of 2026.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $52.46
- Target Price (Mid): ~$86
- Potential Total Return: ~64%
- Annualized IRR: ~13% / year
The mid case is measured from the October 29 close, before the post-earnings selling. It assumes bookings, which TIKR labels revenue, compound about 14% a year from 2025 to 2035. The Street starts slower, with 2026 bookings up about 2% and 2027 up about 13%. Over the same stretch, EBITDA margins widen from around 18% in 2026 to around 27% by 2030. The primary risk is payers continuing to shrink while costs rise ahead of the 2027 launches. Child-safety lawsuits remain a second overhang.
Conclusion
Roblox booked $2.22 billion in Q4 2025. Bookings near the $2.00 billion top of the new range, with only a seasonal dip in daily users, would show retention starting to convert into spending. A result near $1.89 billion in the Q4 report, expected in early 2027, would point the other way.
So what is Roblox stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
