Key Takeaways
- Aura Minerals shares jumped 10% today after the miner reported record preliminary Q3 2026 production of 95,557 gold equivalent ounces, up 27% from Q2.
- The turnaround at its MSG mine is the swing factor: output there rose 85% from Q2, and Aura expects it to keep climbing as the mine heads to full capacity.
- Minosa, Almas and Apoena all produced less than a year earlier, so Aura needs another step up in Q4 to hit its full-year guidance.
- Analysts expect revenue to reach $3.10 billion by 2028, up from $1.26 billion in 2025.
Aura Minerals (AUGO) shares jumped 10% today after the gold miner reported its best quarter of production ever, in a release before this morning’s open.
Preliminary Q3 output hit 95,557 gold equivalent ounces (GEO), up 27% from Q2 and 29% from a year earlier. As CEO and President Rodrigo Barbosa put it:
“As expected, Q3 was a clear step up from Q2, and with the further increase we expect in Q4, we remain on track to meet our full-year guidance.”
MSG is the swing factor
Barbosa singled out MSG, one of Aura’s four operating mines in Brazil, as the highlight. Output there jumped 85% from Q2 to 13,321 GEO, helped by higher grades and better recovery, along with 28% more ore going through the plant. As he put it, “underground development moved quickly, and we have already started blending lower-grade stockpile with higher-grade ore from underground under the bottom-up method.”
Borborema actually added more ounces, with a record 22,842 GEO. But MSG is where the upside sits: Aura expects its new underground areas to feed more ore to the plant over time as the mine heads to full capacity. (Strip MSG out, and Q3 sales rose just 7% from a year earlier.)
That ramp matters, because analysts are already counting on plenty of growth…
Analysts are looking for around $2.15 billion of revenue this year, up from $1.26 billion in 2025, and around $3.1 billion by 2028. After a record quarter with guidance reaffirmed, they have no reason to trim those numbers.
Q4 has to deliver
Not every mine pulled its weight. Minosa, Almas and Apoena all produced less than a year earlier, and Barbosa is counting on a “further increase” in Q4 to hit guidance. Management says fixes are underway at all three, from stacking back at normal levels at Minosa to higher-grade ore at Almas and Apoena.
The valuation leaves room for that. Aura traded at 11.7x forward earnings at Thursday’s close, a bit above its five-year average of 10.2x…
Today’s jump pushes it closer to 13x, still well below its 23.9x peak in July 2025.
I think the step up is real, and MSG’s turnaround gives Aura room for more. Of course, these are preliminary numbers. The final Q3 results, and whether Q4 brings that further increase, will tell us how much more.
So what is Aura Minerals stock actually worth?
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