Key Stats for Lucid Stock
- Current Price: $3.82
- Market Cap / Enterprise Value: $1.51 billion / $7.31 billion
- Street Target: ~$8 (mean of 9 analysts)
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What Happened?
Lucid Group (LCID) closed at $3.82 on October 8, the deepest point on TIKR’s one-year drawdown chart, though still above its $2.37 52-week low. At less than one times NTM sales, the stock looks like a bargain. The company’s enterprise value says otherwise: it has fallen 19.6% since September 30, 2025, while the market cap has lost 79.4%. Lucid’s investor relations materials set the next test for November 9, when third-quarter results arrive.
Debt and Preferred Stock Carry Nearly Four-Fifths of Lucid’s Value
TIKR data shows Lucid’s market cap fell from $7.31 billion on September 30, 2025, to $1.51 billion on October 8, 2026, while enterprise value fell from $9.09 billion to $7.31 billion. Common equity went from about 80% of enterprise value to about 21%.
Claims ranking ahead of common stock grew from $1.78 billion to $5.80 billion over that stretch. At June 30, they consisted of $2.90 billion of net debt, by TIKR’s measure, and $2.91 billion of redeemable convertible preferred stock, including $550 million sold in April to an affiliate of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF). That affiliate also lent Lucid another $800 million on July 6.
Common shareholders were diluted along the way. The share count rose from about 307 million to 394 million, partly through $500 million of common stock sold in April, $200 million of it to Uber (UBER).
That reshapes the valuation. Lucid’s enterprise trades at around 3 times NTM revenue, against around 2 times for Rivian (RIVN), about 1 times for Ford (F) and General Motors (GM), and around 13 times for Tesla (TSLA). Because lenders and preferred holders get paid first, a 10% drop in enterprise value, with other claims held constant, would erase nearly half of the equity value.
Funding is still undecided. On the August 4 call, CEO Silvio Napoli said capital needs “will be a function of the business planning we are just in the process of completing,” adding, “We have many options, we have a very supportive Board.” If new shares are part of that, they would be sold against a $1.51 billion market cap as of October 8.
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Napoli Expected Seasonal Growth. Q3 Deliveries Fell 3.7%
On the same call, Napoli warned that production and deliveries would land below consensus, but said second-half deliveries should “reflect sequential growth broadly consistent with the typical seasonal increase from Q2 to Q3,” though more moderate than a year earlier. The October 5 delivery report showed 3,806 vehicles, down 3.7% from Q2’s 3,953. Deliveries did exceed production of 2,954, as planned, which turns inventory into cash.
Rivian moved the other way, delivering 19,248 vehicles as its new R2 ramped, about five times Lucid’s total.
The cash plan also has a timing catch. Asked by Citigroup’s Michael Ward whether the $1.4 billion of 2026 improvement was annualized, then-CFO Taoufiq Boussaid said part of it leverages phasing: “So some spend will be potentially pushed to next year.” After the call, analysts cut consensus revenue. Since June 30, the 2026 estimate is down about 20% and the 2027 estimate about 15%.
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What the Q3 2026 Consensus Expects
- Q3 Revenue Estimate: ~$420 million (average of 7 analysts, as of October 9)
- Q3 EBITDA Estimate: ~-$670 million (average of 5 analysts)
- Q2 Actual Revenue: $405.35 million
- Q2 Actual EBITDA: -$901.11 million
- EBITDA vs. Estimates: Wider loss than estimated in each of the last 5 quarters
The revenue estimate implies about 3% growth over Q2, even though deliveries fell 3.7%, so it needs higher prices per vehicle or more non-vehicle revenue. Some estimates may also predate the October 5 delivery report. The EBITDA estimate assumes the loss narrows by about a quarter, while Lucid’s EBITDA loss has come in wider than estimated in each of the last five quarters, by between 2.44% and 33.20%.
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Conclusion
Lucid reports third-quarter results on November 9, with a 5:30 p.m. ET call and a promised liquidity update. An EBITDA loss at or inside the roughly $670 million consensus would show the reset reaching the income statement. A loss closer to Q2’s $901.11 million would mark a sixth straight miss and put more weight on how Lucid funds the gap.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
