Key Takeaways
- Coinbase shares have fallen 56% over the past year, and on Oct. 9, 2026, Citizens JMP cut its price target to $280 from $325 while keeping its Market Outperform rating, a call that implies 63% upside.
- Analysts’ consensus target has fallen from $380 to $212 over the same year, even as Buy ratings rose from 12 to 19.
- Analysts now expect a normalized loss of $1.82 a share for 2026, against the $0.62 profit they expected 90 days ago.
- Citizens’ target implies 221x forward earnings against a five-year average of 27.6x, so the call is plausible but stretched until earnings estimates recover.
Coinbase Global (COIN) has lost 56% in a year, closing at $172 on Oct. 8, 2026. The next morning, Citizens JMP analyst Devin Ryan cut his price target to $280 from $325 and kept his Market Outperform rating. Even after the cut, he sees 63% upside.
Bitcoin’s slide did the damage
Bitcoin hit a record above $126,000 in early October 2025, around the same time Coinbase closed at its 52-week high of $387.27 on Oct. 8. Both fell hard from there.
On Feb. 12, 2026, Coinbase reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $667 million, driven largely by a $718 million hit on its crypto investments. The stock closed at $141.09 that day, its lowest close of the past year.
Trading stayed soft. On the July 30 call, CFO Alesia Haas said “this is during a down market, obviously, we saw crypto trading volumes down.”
Citizens is betting on everything beyond trading
Citizens said the lower target reflects the work Coinbase still has to do on its plans beyond crypto trading. Its case is that the 20-plus products launched this summer feed each other: more assets support trading and borrowing, and more USDC activity supports payments.
Subscription and services already made up 48% of net revenue in the second quarter of 2026, by the company’s count.
Does $280 add up?
Citizens has plenty of company in cutting. The consensus target has fallen from $380 to $212, after bottoming at $195 in August.
Citizens’ $280 sits between that and the Street-high $330 (the low is $110), and it’s coming down toward the pack: Goldman Sachs raised its target to $244 on Oct. 7, and Morgan Stanley to $258 on Oct. 9. Oddly enough, Buy ratings rose from 12 to 19 over the year as targets fell.
The bigger problem is earnings. Coinbase earned $9.48 a share (normalized) in 2024 and $4.45 in 2025, and analysts now expect a loss in 2026.
Ninety days ago, they expected a $0.62 profit for 2026. Estimates have ticked up over the last 30 days, but even 2028’s $4.78 is about half of what Coinbase earned in 2024.
That leaves the stock at [136x] forward earnings, against a five-year average of 27.6x.
Divide Citizens’ $280 by the $1.27 a share analysts expect over the next 12 months, and the target implies 221x forward earnings. That’s far above the stock’s usual level, though short of its 360x peak in February 2024.
The rebound isn’t in the estimates yet
Revenue still rises and falls with crypto trading, and Coinbase can’t control crypto prices.
Citizens’ call is plausible but stretched. A 221x multiple only works if earnings recover much faster than analysts expect. The case for Ryan is that the multiple is high because earnings are near a bottom, and the newer businesses grow into it.
The third-quarter report is the test. If it lifts 2027 estimates back toward the $4.54 analysts expected 90 days ago, $280 starts to look a lot more reasonable.
So what is Coinbase stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
