Key Stats
- Current Price: €1,250
- Q1 2026 Revenue: €8.8B (+13% YoY)
- Q1 2026 EPS: €7.15 (+19% YoY)
- Q1 2026 Gross Margin: 53%
- Q2 2026 Revenue Guidance: €8.4B–EUR 9B
- Q2 2026 Gross Margin Guidance: 51%–53%
- Full-Year 2026 Revenue Guidance (Raised): €36B–EUR 40B (prior: EUR 35B–EUR 40B)
- Full-Year 2026 Gross Margin Guidance: 51%–53%
- TIKR Model Price Target: €2,567.75
- Implied Upside Over ~5 Years: +106%
ASML Stock Delivers Strong Q1 as EUV Demand Accelerates
ASML stock (ASML) opened its 2026 with €8.8B in Q1 revenue, a 13% year-over-year increase and a result within management’s guidance range, alongside EPS of €7.15 that came in well above the prior-year figure of €6.
Net system sales reached €6.3B for the quarter, with EUV systems alone contributing more than €4.1B, including revenue from two High-NA units.
Memory emerged as the defining segment, accounting for 51% of net system sales as DRAM customers accelerated EUV adoption to reduce multi-patterning complexity and free up fab space.
Installed Base Management revenue came in at €2.5B, slightly above guidance, driven by high-margin software-based upgrade activity.
CEO Christophe Fouquet described the demand backdrop on the Q1 earnings call: “Both our Memory and Logic customers are responding to this unprecedented demand by increasing capital expenditures and accelerating capacity expansion plans this year and beyond.”
Net income was €2.8B, representing around 31% of total net sales, according to CFO Roger Dassen on the Q1 earnings call.
ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue range to €36B–€40B, up from €35B–€40B, citing stronger immersion demand and incremental EUV upside concentrated in non-China customers.
China is expected to remain approximately 20% of revenue, unchanged from prior guidance, according to Dassen on the Q1 earnings call.
Management increased its Low-NA EUV output target to at least 80 systems in 2027, up from 44 shipped in 2025, while targeting at least 60 for the current year.
ASML declared a total 2025 dividend of €7.50 per share, up 17% over 2024, and repurchased €1.1B in shares during Q1.
Financials
ASML stock is showing a consistent margin recovery and expansion story after a mid-2025 compression trough, with gross margin and operating margin both trending back toward cycle highs.
Gross margin peaked at 54% in Q1 2025, compressed to 51.6% in Q3 2025, and has now recovered to 53% in Q1 2026, reflecting the high-margin contribution of software-based installed base upgrades in the period.
Operating income grew to €3.16B in Q1 2026, up 15% from €2.74B in the prior-year March quarter, as operating leverage continued to build through the volume ramp.
Operating margin expanded to 36% in Q1 2026 from 35.4% in Q1 2025, a 60-basis-point improvement that holds even as headcount additions accelerate ahead of the 2027 ramp.
Dassen noted on the Q1 earnings call that Q2 gross margin is guided at 51%–52%, narrower than the full-year range, as high-margin upgrade mix normalizes and the cost of ramping additional headcount flows through before the volume benefit arrives in the second half.
Valuation Model Take
TIKR’s valuation model places a price target of €2,568 on ASML stock, implying approximately 105.5% total return from the current price of €1,250 over the next ~5 years, or roughly 17% annualized.
The mid-case assumptions driving that target are a revenue CAGR of around 11% through 2030, a net income margin of approximately 38%, and EPS growth of ~16% annually.
The Q1 report reinforces those assumptions rather than stretching them: the guidance raise narrows the low end of the 2026 revenue range but does not move the goalposts for the multi-year model in a dramatic way.
ASML stock enters the back half of 2026 with a strengthened investment case: revenue guidance tightened upward, EUV demand accelerating in both Memory and Logic, and High-NA beginning to generate meaningful customer engagement on product wafers.
The central tension: ASML can see the demand clearly, but the question is how fast it can actually build the tools to capture it.
Bull Case
- Low-NA EUV output scaling to at least 80 systems in 2027 versus 44 in 2025 more than doubles wafer-per-hour capacity deliverable to customers, even before productivity upgrades are counted
- Memory customers are sold out through the remainder of 2026 and accelerating EUV adoption layer by layer, driving litho intensity gains that sustain €36B–€40B 2026 guidance from a position of demand excess, not demand uncertainty
- Installed Base Management at €2.5B per quarter and growing, with software-based upgrades providing high-margin revenue that is immediately deliverable without new tool lead times
- High-NA has now processed over 500,000 wafers at 80%-plus availability, with Logic and DRAM customers actively testing on product wafers, positioning the platform for earlier-than-expected production ramp if supply constraints persist
Bear Case
- Q2 gross margin guided at 51%–52%, below Q1’s 53%, as headcount additions and normalization of high-margin upgrade mix compress near-term profitability before the second-half volume recovery
- Full-year gross margin held at 51%–53% despite a raised revenue range, suggesting the incremental revenue from deeper immersion penetration and higher EUV shipments carries dilutive margin characteristics relative to Q1’s installed base windfall
- China revenue capped at approximately 20% of total sales under current export control assumptions, limiting ASML’s addressable market at a time when the non-China ramp carries higher execution and clean-room timing risk
- The “at least 80” Low-NA EUV target for 2027 is framed as ongoing alignment with customers rather than a firm commitment, leaving open the possibility that clean-room delays, optics supply constraints, or demand revision could cause the build plan to fall short
Should You Invest in ASML Holding N.V.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up ASML stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track ASML Holding N.V. alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze ASML stock on TIKR for Free →
