Key Stats for ASML Stock
- Past week’s performance: -2.4%
- 52-week range: €508 to €1,313
- Valuation model target price: $1541
- Implied upside: 34.4% over 2.8 years
Value your favorite stocks like ASML with 5 years of analysts’ forecasts using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) stock slipped 2.4% last week, and the move came after a mixed week for the chip-equipment group. The company got a strong demand signal on March 24, when SK Hynix disclosed a $7.97 billion order for ASML EUV tools through 2027. Reuters said it was the largest single order ever publicly disclosed by an ASML customer, and ASML shares were up 0.9% that day in Amsterdam.
But that positive news did not carry through the full week. On March 26, Reuters reported that European semiconductor stocks came under pressure after Google unveiled TurboQuant, a compression algorithm that it said can reduce AI memory use without hurting performance. That added pressure to chip names, and ASML was also trading into a weaker European market backdrop by Friday.
Investors were also weighing company-specific headlines. More than 1,000 employees joined a walkout at ASML’s Veldhoven headquarters on March 24 to protest the company’s plan to cut 1,700 jobs, or about 3.8% of its workforce. At the same time, ASML kept buying back stock during the week, repurchasing roughly €125 million of shares from March 23 through March 27 under its current buyback program.
So the stock’s weekly decline looked less like a change in ASML’s long-term story and more like a short-term reset in sentiment. Investors saw fresh proof that AI chip demand remains strong, but they also had to digest sector volatility, labor unrest, and a tougher macro backdrop. The next major checkpoint is now ASML’s Q1 2026 results on April 15.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for ASML (It’s free) >>>
Is ASML Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 14.6%
- Operating Margins: 34.6%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 33x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of €1,540.98, implying 34.4% total upside from the current share price and a 11.3% annualized return over the next 2.8 years.
ASML does not screen as obviously cheap on current multiples. The stock trades at about 46.4x LTM earnings and 13.3x LTM EV/revenue, while the valuation model uses a 33.0x exit P/E multiple. That matters because the model assumes ASML can keep growing, but it also assumes some valuation normalization from today’s premium.
That premium exists for a reason. ASML is the only company that makes EUV lithography tools, and those machines are essential for producing the most advanced AI and memory chips. Reuters also reported that fewer than a dozen High NA EUV tools exist worldwide, which reinforces how hard ASML’s technology is to replicate.
The business fundamentals still support a premium valuation. In 2025, ASML generated €32.7 billion in sales, €17.3 billion in gross profit, and €9.6 billion in net income, while gross margin reached 52.8% and operating margin reached 34.6%. It also produced €11.1 billion in free cash flow and ended the year with net cash of about €8.6 billion, which gives it more flexibility than many industrial peers.
So the valuation case depends less on balance-sheet stress and more on execution. If revenue compounds near 14.6% and margins hold around the mid-30s, the model points to solid returns. But because the stock already reflects high expectations around AI demand, it can still wobble when investors question the pace of customer spending.
What’s Driving ASML Stock Going Forward?
The next clear catalyst is earnings. ASML is scheduled to report Q1 2026 results on April 15, followed by its annual general meeting on April 22 and a €2.70 cash dividend on April 24. Those dates matter because investors will be watching bookings, revenue mix, and management commentary on customer spending.
AI remains the biggest long-term driver. ASML said in its 2025 annual report that it sees AI demand as a long-term growth driver, and recent industry news supports that view. SK Hynix’s $7.97 billion tool order and imec’s installation of a rare $400 million High NA EUV machine both point to continued spending on leading-edge chips for AI and high-bandwidth memory.
Management’s 2026 outlook is also important. CEO Christophe Fouquet said ASML expects 2026 total net sales of €34 billion to €39 billion and gross margin of 51% to 53%. The company also ended 2025 with a €38.8 billion backlog, so the debate is not whether demand exists, but how quickly that backlog converts into shipped systems and recognized revenue.
Investors should also watch execution on High NA EUV and the installed base business. High NA tools are expected to enter commercial production from 2027, and that can support another upgrade cycle in advanced logic and memory. Meanwhile, ASML’s installed base management sales reached €8.2 billion in 2025, which helps smooth revenue because service and upgrades are less lumpy than new machine shipments.
Estimate a company’s fair value instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>
Should You Invest in ASML Holding N.V.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up ASML, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track ASML alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Analyze ASML Holding stock on TIKR Free→
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
