Key Stats for Amer Stock
- 52-Week Range: $21.1 to $42.8
- Current Price: $35.2
- Street Mean Target: $49
- Street High Target: $60
- TIKR Model Target (Dec. 2030): $92.5
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What Happened?
Amer Sports (AS), the Finland-based premium sports and outdoor group behind Arc’teryx, Salomon, and Wilson, crossed $6.6 billion in annual revenue in fiscal 2025, growing 26.7% year over year, while its stock sits at $35.22, well below its February peak of $42.76.
Q4 FY2025 revenue came in at $2.1 billion against a Wall Street estimate of $2.0 billion, an earnings beat led by Technical Apparel, the segment housing Arc’teryx, which grew 34% in the quarter across all four global regions.
Salomon, the French outdoor and sneaker brand that has been repositioning itself as a global footwear label competing in the mass sneaker market, crossed $2 billion in annual sales in 2025, growing 35% for the full year and driving DTC channel growth of 55% in Q4 alone.
James Zheng, CEO, stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “we believe we are well positioned for strong and profitable growth within the premium Sports and Outdoor market, which continues to be one of the healthiest segments in all of consumers,” tying directly to the company’s FY2026 guidance for 16% to 18% revenue growth and EPS of $1.10 to $1.15.
On March 3, Amer Sports priced a $750 million follow-on equity offering at $36.40 per share, a 3.9% discount to the prior close, using proceeds to redeem its 6.75% senior secured notes due 2031, reducing annual interest expense and strengthening a balance sheet already sitting at only 0.3x net leverage.
Wall Street’s Take on AS Stock
The Q4 beat confirms what Arc’teryx’s compounding unit economics have been signaling for two years: the current pullback in Amer stock from $42.76 to $35.22 is a function of the March equity raise, not the underlying business, and the Street’s $48.96 mean target reflects that gap plainly.
AS’s normalized EPS grew 106.4% in FY2025 to $0.97, supported by 170 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion for the full year, and consensus now projects EPS of $1.19 in FY2026 (+23.0%) and $1.49 in FY2027 (+24.9%), a sustained compounding trajectory that underpins the model’s 21.6% EPS CAGR assumption through 2030.
With 24 of 25 analysts rating Amer stock a buy or outperform, the mean target of $48.96 implies 39% upside from the April 10 close; the high target of $60 and low of $43 frame a debate anchored entirely above where the stock trades today, a rare degree of consensus for a mid-cap with a recent dilutive offering on the books.
The target spread from $43 to $60 maps to a real operational question: the bull end prices in accelerating Salomon sneaker penetration in North America on top of sustained Arc’teryx expansion, while the $43 floor assumes Salomon’s elevated SG&A investment compresses margins longer than management’s Q1 guidance implies.
Trading at roughly 29.6x FY2026 estimated EPS while delivering 23% forward earnings growth, Amer stock appears undervalued relative to the premium outdoor sector, where compounders at equivalent growth rates have historically commanded multiples in the 35x to 40x range.
The primary risk is SG&A: Salomon’s Q4 Outdoor Performance segment operating margin contracted 490 basis points as the company front-loaded brand investment, and if that spending level extends into H2 2026 rather than normalizing, full-year EPS could miss the $1.10 to $1.15 guidance range.
Q1 2026 results, expected in late May, are the confirmation event: the company guided for EPS of $0.28 to $0.30 and revenue growth of 22% to 24%, and any delivery above the high end of that range would likely re-rate Amer stock meaningfully toward analyst targets.
Amer Stock Financials
Amer Sports generated $6.57 billion in revenue in FY2025, a 26.7% year-over-year increase, while operating income reached $710 million, up 52.0% from $470 million in FY2024, the widest operating leverage gap the company has delivered since going public.
Gross margins drove much of that expansion, rising to 57.6% in FY2025 from 55.4% in FY2024, a 220 basis point improvement reflecting the growing weight of Technical Apparel, Arc’teryx’s highest-margin segment, within the overall revenue mix.
The four-year trajectory from 6.1% operating margins in FY2021 to 10.9% in FY2025 is the most important line in AS’s income statement: four consecutive years of expansion, each one compressing the distance to the company’s long-term guidance corridor of 13% to 14%.
SG&A grew to $3.10 billion in FY2025 from $2.43 billion in FY2024, a 27.6% increase that nearly matched the 26.7% revenue growth rate, meaning Salomon’s brand investment is absorbing gross margin gains at the same rate they are being generated, leaving operating leverage real but still contingent on Salomon’s spend normalizing in 2026.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR model’s mid-case target of $92.45 by December 2030 represents a 162.5% total return from today’s price, anchored to a 14.5% revenue CAGR assumption and a 12.0% net income margin, both of which the company is already tracking toward given 57.6% gross margins in FY2025 and four years of consecutive operating margin expansion
AS appears undervalued at current levels, with a 22.6% annualized IRR implied by the mid case and even the low-case model target of $72.00 representing 104% upside from $35.22.
The central question for AS investors is not whether the model’s growth assumptions are achievable — the company’s FY2025 results already validate them — but whether the Salomon SG&A front-load in Q4 2025 was a one-quarter event or the beginning of a multi-year drag that compresses the path to 12% net income margins.
What Has to Go Right
- Salomon’s operating margin returns to modest year-over-year expansion in Q1 2026, as CFO Andrew Page guided on the earnings call, validating the $1.10 to $1.15 FY2026 EPS range
- North America Salomon order books, described as experiencing strong growth for both Spring/Summer and Fall/Winter 2026, convert into revenue at the rate Q4 DTC growth of 55% suggests
- Arc’teryx opens 25 to 30 net new stores in 2026, primarily in North America and China, sustaining the 16% omni-comp that drove Technical Apparel segment margins to 25.9% in Q4
- The $750 million debt redemption reduces net finance costs, freeing earnings power that flows directly into the 12.0% net income margin the model requires by 2030
What Could Go Wrong
- SG&A investment behind Salomon extends beyond H1 2026, keeping Outdoor Performance segment margins below the 14.5% to 14.8% guidance range and pushing FY2026 EPS toward $1.10 or below
- The March equity offering at $36.40 dilutes per-share earnings growth, slowing the EPS CAGR from the model’s 21.6% mid-case assumption toward the 18.7% low-case figure
- Arc’teryx growth moderates from Q4’s 34% pace toward the 18% low end of FY2026 guidance, limiting the margin-accretive segment mix that has driven gross margin expansion since FY2021
- P/E compression of 3.9% annually, already embedded in the model’s mid case, accelerates if macro conditions soften premium consumer spending in Greater China, where AS grew 42% in Q4
Should You Invest in Amer Sports, Inc.?
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Pull up AS stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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