Key Stats for Apollo Stock
- Current Price: $123.33
- Street Target: ~$138
- Target Price (TIKR Mid): ~$283
- Potential Total Return: ~129%
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year
- Earnings Reaction: -1.13% (February 9, 2026)
- Max Drawdown: -35.73% (March 12, 2026)
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What Happened?
Apollo (APO) bottomed on March 12 at $99.56, down 35.73% from its 52-week high of $157.28, then bounced more than 22% over six trading sessions through April 21. At $123.33, the stock still sits about 22% below that peak. That gap is where the debate now lives.
The drawdown had a specific cause. Starting in early February 2026, investigative reports linked Apollo’s co-founders to Jeffrey Epstein, prompting a securities class action lawsuit filed as Feldman v. Apollo Global Management, No. 1:26-cv-01692 in the Southern District of New York.
The complaint alleges Apollo’s leadership made materially false statements about the firm’s relationship with Epstein, allegations Apollo has not accepted. By the time CNN published its report on February 21, the stock had shed over $12 billion in market cap in roughly three weeks. The lead plaintiff deadline is May 1, 2026.
The business kept running through it all. On February 9, Apollo reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.47, beating the $2.04 consensus estimate by 21.28%. Full-year 2025 adjusted net income came in at $5.2 billion, up approximately 14% year-over-year.
Total assets under management (AUM, meaning client assets the firm manages for fees) reached $938 billion at year-end, up approximately 25% from 2024, driven by record origination activity exceeding $300 billion. The stock fell 1.13% on earnings day anyway.
This week confirmed that the deal activity hasn’t slowed.
On April 23, Apollo-managed funds agreed to acquire a 40% stake in Pembina Gas Infrastructure, one of Western Canada’s largest independent natural gas processing platforms, from KKR.
Then on April 27, Apollo announced an agreement to acquire the Interiors business of Forvia SE, the French automotive components group, at an enterprise value of EUR 1.82 billion. Two material deals in five days, with the stock still trading near cycle lows.
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What the Forvia Deal Reveals About Apollo’s Playbook
The Forvia Interiors acquisition is a window into how Apollo thinks about industrial carve-outs, and the April 27 deal call was unusually transparent about the logic.
Forvia’s CFO Olivier Durand confirmed on the call that the EUR 1.82 billion enterprise value represents 3.1x adjusted EBITDA under IFRS accounting, or 4.8x on a U.S. GAAP proxy (excluding R&D capitalization and lease costs). The business generated approximately EUR 582 million in 2025 EBITDA. At 4.8x, Apollo is buying at a price that reflects carve-out execution risk rather than stabilized business value, and that gap is where Apollo has historically generated its returns.
Forvia CEO Martin Fischer, speaking on the call, confirmed the strategic fit: “Apollo has a very strong sector expertise and an active ownership approach to their automotive activities.”
CFO Durand provided further context on why this deal fits Apollo’s broader portfolio: “Apollo is in the automotive business for quite a while and have created a fairly large position with the different acquisitions they have done in the last few years, Panasonic, TI, Tenneco.
It’s becoming a large, in fact, automotive supplier group of companies.”
That consolidation context matters. Forvia Interiors is not an isolated carve-out, it is an addition to what Apollo is building into a scaled automotive platform. Michael Reiss, Private Equity Partner at Apollo, captured the thesis directly in the firm’s press release: “Drawing upon Apollo’s extensive investment experience in the automotive sector and in executing complex carve outs, we are a strong partner to reinforce the company’s leadership position globally.”
The Forvia deal structure also showed discipline. Durand confirmed it accounts for minority interests in joint ventures, EUR 69 million in pension liabilities, and all carve-out and tax costs, with gross debt reduction for Forvia exceeding EUR 1.4 billion. Fischer noted the deal was signed “in spite of a challenging environment through the Middle East crisis”, not a minor execution detail.
The Pembina Gas Infrastructure stake runs parallel. Apollo is acquiring a 40% interest in a platform operating 23 gas processing plants and approximately 3,900 kilometers of gathering pipelines in Western Canada, with around 330,000 barrels per day of natural gas liquids extraction capacity. It is a long-duration, fee-generating real asset acquired at a point when natural gas processing capacity is in high demand from LNG export growth.
Both deals reflect the same Apollo thesis: acquire industrial assets through complex structures where pricing reflects process risk, not terminal value, and compound from there.
Is Apollo Undervalued Today?
The core tension isn’t about the business. It’s about whether the Epstein-related lawsuit creates a lasting valuation discount, or whether the market prices it out as the legal process runs its course.
Fourteen of 20 analysts have a Buy or Outperform rating on APO, with six Holds and no Underperforms or Sells. The Street’s consensus target of around $138 implies about 12% upside from here, modest given the drawdown magnitude. Morgan Stanley cut its price target to $165 from $181 on April 21; Evercore ISI raised to $145 from $135 the same day. The split reflects where Wall Street sits: the business is intact, the litigation overhang is real.
What makes the fundamental case compelling is how the business is priced right now. Apollo’s NTM P/E sits at 13.92x, compared to roughly 16x to 17x as recently as mid-2025. Forward revenues are expected to grow at around 17% annually over the next two years, per the TIKR consensus. A business growing at 17% priced at under 14x forward earnings is not how APO has typically traded.
Apollo’s earnings structure also provides a cushion that pure-play fee managers lack. Its insurance subsidiary, Athene, provides permanent long-duration capital not subject to retail fund redemption risk. Management guided for 20%+ growth in fee-related earnings (FRE, the recurring management fee income Apollo earns from its funds) in 2026, and around 10% growth in spread-related earnings (SRE, the profit Athene earns on the difference between its investment returns and insurance liabilities), off a 2025 SRE base of $3.4 billion.
The lawsuit is the honest bear case. The complaint covers alleged misstatements from May 10, 2021, to February 21, 2026. Until there is a settlement or dismissal, it limits how far sentiment can recover regardless of the earnings trajectory. That overhang is what investors are buying around, not ignoring.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $123.33
- Target Price (Mid): ~$283
- Potential Total Return: ~129%
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model applies a revenue CAGR of around 12% through 12/31/30. The two growth drivers are continued AUM expansion as institutional demand for private credit and real assets grows, and sustained origination volume feeding Retirement Services through Athene. The Forvia and Pembina transactions are exactly the kind of originations that build fee-earning AUM over time.
The margin driver is Athene’s spread-related earnings, which have remained durable across market cycles. The primary risk is a lawsuit settlement large enough to create a material one-time earnings drag, or one that triggers institutional capital outflows before legal certainty is restored.
Upside: AUM crosses $1 trillion in 2026, Q1 earnings on May 6 beat consensus, and the May 1 lead plaintiff deadline passes without new disclosures, the stock re-rates toward its historical multiple range. Downside: a large settlement or continued institutional scrutiny pushes APO back toward the $99.56 March low. At 13.92x NTM earnings, the multiple already reflects meaningful risk.
Conclusion
The number to watch at Q1 earnings on May 6 is FRE. Apollo guided for 20%+ FRE growth in 2026 off a confirmed $2.5 billion full-year 2025 base. If Q1 FRE comes in ahead of that trajectory and management reaffirms AUM inflow momentum, the recovery from March lows has a credible foundation.
At $123.33, APO prices carry more legal risk than business deterioration. Two deals in five days show the deployment engine is running. Whether the valuation gap closes depends on May 6 and the May 1 lawsuit deadline, not on whether Apollo is still doing deals.
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Should You Invest in Apollo?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Apollo, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
