Key Stats
- Current Price: ~$59
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $3.6B (+50% YoY)
- Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS: $2.33 (+97% YoY)
- Q1 2026 Free Cash Flow: >$1.8B (record)
- Q1 2026 Operating Margin: 57%
- Full-Year Guidance: Management tracking at or above midpoint; formal update expected midyear
- TIKR Model Price Target: $96
- Implied Upside Over the Next ~5 Years: ~63%
EQT Corporation Stock Posts Record Q1 on $1.8B Free Cash Flow
EQT Corporation stock (EQT) delivered record Q1 2026 results, with revenue of $3.6B rising 50% year-over-year and adjusted EPS of $2.33 nearly doubling from $1.18 in the year-ago quarter.
The standout figure was free cash flow: according to Toby Rice, President and CEO on the Q1 2026 earnings call, EQT generated more than $1.8B of free cash flow in a single quarter, roughly equal to the company’s total free cash flow for all of 2022 when gas prices exceeded $6.
That performance was built on two structural advantages: vertical integration through the Equitrans acquisition and entering the high-price winter environment largely unhedged, capturing nearly 100% of the natural gas price surge, according to Jeremy Knop, CFO on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Despite Winter Storm Fern cutting into volumes, production still finished above the high end of guidance, with EQT’s uptime outperforming peers by more than 2x, according to Rice on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
EQT Corporation stock also saw a major balance sheet milestone: the company retired more than $1.7B in senior notes during the quarter, according to Knop on the Q1 2026 earnings call, and exited Q1 with net debt of just under $5.7B.
Fitch upgraded EQT to BBB during the quarter, recognition of a deleveraging pace that has brought net debt to EBITDA below 1x, with management targeting the $5B net debt level by year-end, according to Knop on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
On Q2 guidance, management embedded 10 to 15 Bcf of strategic curtailments into production guidance to optimize realizations during the shoulder season, according to Knop on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
On the full-year outlook, management indicated the business is tracking at or above the midpoint of initial guidance and would assess whether a formal update is warranted at midyear, according to Knop on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
EQT Corporation Stock: Financials
The Q1 2026 income statement shows a company operating at structurally higher margins than at any prior point in this data series, with operating leverage accelerating sharply as revenue surged into peak winter pricing.
Revenue went from $850M in the June 2024 quarter to $1.18B in September 2024, $1.76B in December 2024, $2.37B in March 2025, and then $1.80B and $1.78B through the summer of 2025 before rebounding to $2.23B in December 2025 and $3.56B in Q1 2026.
Gross margin expanded from 30.5% in the June 2024 quarter to 82% by March 2025, compressed back to 76% through the summer quarters, recovered to 80% in December 2025, and reached 87% in Q1 2026.
Operating margin followed the same arc but with greater amplitude: from a loss position of -33% in June 2024 to 21% in March 2025, pulling back to 63% in June 2025 before moderating to 35% and 55% in the September and December quarters, then reaching 57% in Q1 2026.
Operating income in Q1 2026 was $2.04B, up from $1.23B in the December 2025 quarter and $500M in the year-ago March 2025 quarter, a 308% year-over-year increase.
Cost of goods sold has remained essentially flat across the entire eight-quarter series, ranging between $420M and $590M per quarter, which means the operating leverage story is almost entirely a function of revenue, not cost cuts.
For full-year 2025, EQT generated $8.64B in revenue, up 64% from $5.27B in 2024, with normalized EPS of $3.05 and free cash flow of $3.03B, a 344% year-over-year improvement from $680M in 2024.
Street estimates for full-year 2026 put revenue at $9.74B, normalized EPS at $4.83, and free cash flow at $3.47B, implying FCF margins of roughly 36% — a modest step up from the 35% posted in 2025.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s model prices EQT Corporation stock at $96, implying approximately 63% upside from the current price of ~$59 over the next ~5 years.
The mid-case assumptions are a revenue CAGR of around 5%, net income margin of 31.5%, and EPS CAGR of 10% through 2035.
The Q1 result strengthens those assumptions: free cash flow of more than $1.8B in a single quarter, a Fitch upgrade to investment grade, and net debt below 1x EBITDA all reduce the financial risk that previously discounted EQT’s earnings power.
The investment case for EQT Corporation stock is materially stronger after this quarter, with the balance sheet constraint effectively removed and the LNG optionality beginning to gain tangible timeline visibility.
The central question is whether EQT’s LNG contracts, beginning in 2030, materialize into the free cash flow step-change management is projecting, or whether today’s elevated gas prices pull forward gains that prove temporary.
What Has to Go Right
- LNG contracts beginning in 2030 are modeled to generate $500M in annual free cash flow uplift at current strip, rising to $2.5B under a repeat of 2026-level volatility, according to Knop on the Q1 2026 earnings call
- Data center and power demand in Appalachia is currently representing 2 to 3 Bcf/day of demand growth already announced, with discussions suggesting the total opportunity set could reach 8 to 10 Bcf/day, according to Knop on the Q1 2026 earnings call
- Cost of goods sold has held flat for eight consecutive quarters at roughly $420M to $590M, meaning any sustained revenue growth flows almost entirely to operating income
- Balance sheet deleveraging is ahead of schedule: net debt below 1x EBITDA, $5B target within reach by year-end, and a Fitch BBB upgrade already confirmed
What Could Still Go Wrong
- Q2 guidance embeds 10 to 15 Bcf of strategic curtailments; management flagged potential for additional curtailments in fall 2025 depending on forward curve shape, meaning near-term production volumes are deliberately managed down
- Revenue has shown sharp seasonal volatility: the summer 2025 quarters printed $1.80B and $1.78B against Q1 2026’s $3.56B, and the TIKR mid-case revenue CAGR of only 5.3% forward implies the model does not price in a repeat of Q1 pricing every quarter
- LNG contract exposure at full scale does not begin until 2030, leaving EQT Corporation stock exposed to domestic Henry Hub pricing for the next four years with no direct international price hedge
- Management declined to update full-year guidance after one of its strongest quarters on record, citing it is only two months into the year, introducing uncertainty about whether Q1 results are sustainable or front-loaded
Should You Invest in EQT Corporation?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up EQT stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track EQT Corporation alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze EQT stock on TIKR for Free →
