Key Stats for HCA Healthcare Stock
- Current Price: $432.46
- Target Price (Mid): ~$760
- Street Target: ~$540
- Potential Total Return: ~77%
- Annualized IRR: ~13% / year
- Earnings Reaction: -8.77% (April 24, 2026)
- Max Drawdown: -20.67% (April 24, 2026)
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What Happened?
HCA Healthcare (HCA) stock fell 8.77% on April 24, 2026, its steepest single-day drop in over a year, and the reaction tells you how much was riding on this quarter. Investors had spent months watching the largest for-profit hospital operator in the U.S. promise it could absorb a $600 million to $900 million headwind from the expiration of Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits, backed by a $400 million cost-savings program and a $10 billion share repurchase authorization.
What they got instead was a quarter where the headline miss came almost entirely from two factors management called temporary.
Revenue grew 4.3% year over year to $19.11 billion, adjusted EPS of $7.15 matched consensus, and operating cash flow surged 22% year over year to $2.01 billion. But adjusted EBITDA of $3.80 billion missed estimates by 1.4%, and HCA reaffirmed rather than raised its full-year guidance. The market treated the guide-hold as a near-miss.
CFO Mike Marks explained on the Q1 2026 earnings call that respiratory-related admissions fell 42% year over year against a strong 2025 flu season, dragging admission growth down by 70 basis points and ER visits down by 140 basis points.
A January winter storm across Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia knocked admissions down by an additional 30 basis points. Together, these two factors cost an estimated $180 million in adjusted EBITDA. That shortfall was largely offset by $200 million in net benefit from Medicaid state supplemental program approvals, specifically the grandfathered Georgia program and the reinstatement of the ATLIS Program in Texas.
CEO Samuel N. Hazen told analysts that February and March volumes recovered and the business was “largely back on our original plan” by quarter-end. Full-year 2026 guidance of $29.10 to $31.50 in diluted EPS and $76.5 billion to $80 billion in revenue was reaffirmed without change.
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Is HCA Healthcare Undervalued Today?
At $432.46, HCA trades at roughly 14x next twelve months earnings and around 9.2x NTM EV/EBITDA, both below where the stock sat heading into earnings. Wall Street’s mean price target is around $540, implying roughly 25% upside. Of the 26 analysts covering HCA, 15 rate it a Buy or Outperform, 9 a Hold, and 2 a Sell or Underperform, a distribution that still leans bullish despite the selloff.
The central question is whether Q1’s pain was genuinely temporary. Those were concentrated in January, and volumes recovered in February and March. On the ACA exchange side, HCA reported a 15% same-facility decline in exchange equivalent admissions in Q1, sitting at the low end of management’s 15% to 20% full-year modeling range.
The $150 million adjusted EBITDA hit from exchanges in Q1 also tracks toward the favorable end of the $600 million to $900 million annual guidance range. Both are better than what the market appeared to fear.
A new variable adds uncertainty: fewer uninsured patients are applying for Medicaid even when eligible. CFO Marks said on the call that this is likely “driven a bit by concerns around immigration and the like,” though he stressed it is early and may not be a sustained trend. It contributed to a 16% year-over-year jump in uninsured equivalent admissions and bears watching in Q2.
Two things partially offset that uncertainty. First, HCA repurchased $1.57 billion of its own stock in Q1, with $9.18 billion remaining under the current authorization. This directly lifts earnings per share regardless of volume trends. Second, the Florida Medicaid supplemental payment program, covering October 2024 through September 2025, is still pending CMS approval.
Marks said the company feels “positive about the prospects” and, if approved, the benefit “may be significant.” That potential upside was deliberately excluded from current guidance, meaning it represents unbudgeted upside if it clears.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $432.46
- Target Price (Mid): ~$760
- Potential Total Return: ~77%
- Annualized IRR: ~13% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model targets around $760 by December 31, 2030, implying roughly 77% total return and around 13% annualized IRR from $432.46. The two primary revenue CAGR drivers are organic volume growth of 2% to 3% annually across HCA’s markets and the contribution from the $5.5 billion to $6 billion capital pipeline in new hospital capacity and outpatient facilities coming online over the next 24 to 30 months. The margin driver is the resiliency program compounding into a net income margin of around 9% by 2030, with ongoing buybacks accelerating per-share free cash flow growth.
The upside path: Q1’s headwinds prove one-time, exchange attrition holds at the low end of the modeled range, and Florida program approval adds unbudgeted benefit. The downside path: exchange attrition worsens beyond 20%, and the Medicaid conversion slowdown expands uninsured bad debt, pushing earnings toward the low end of guidance over multiple quarters.
The current price reflects more downside than the Q1 call actually warranted.
Conclusion
Watch same-facility exchange equivalent admissions when HCA reports Q2 2026, expected around July 25, 2026. If that figure holds at or below 15%, the favorable tracking from Q1 becomes the base case for the year. HCA is a cash-generating hospital operator whose stock fell nearly 9% on a quarter defined by weather and a weak flu season, not a structural break.
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Should You Invest in HCA Healthcare?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up HCA Healthcare, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track HCA Healthcare alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
