Key Stats for Flutter Entertainment Stock
- Current Price: $111.57
- Street Target (Mean): ~$188
- TIKR Mid-Case Target: ~$322
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~189%
- Annualized IRR (Mid): ~25% / year
- Earnings Reaction: -13.80% (February 26, 2026)
- Max Drawdown: -67.76% (March 30, 2026)
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What Happened?
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) has been a painful hold. The stock has shed roughly 65% from its 52-week high of $313.69, touching a low of $98.88 before recovering to $111.57.
Bulls argue the selloff badly overestimates the risks facing FanDuel, the leading U.S. online sportsbook Flutter owns. Bears say prediction market competition is a structural threat, and management has already guided below Wall Street expectations once this year.
The question investors are wrestling with: recoverable problem, or permanent impairment?
The sharpest recent signal came on April 16, when Citi Research analyst Monique Pollard double-downgraded Flutter to Sell from Buy, cutting her price target to around $92. She cited weaker H1 2026 EBITDA, the risk of a second guidance cut, and limited near-term value in FanDuel Predicts, Flutter’s new prediction markets product. Pollard is now the lone Sell among 26 analysts covering the stock. The other 25 split 20 on Buy or Outperform and six on Hold.
The guidance miss that fueled the selloff came on February 26, when Flutter reported full-year 2025 results. Revenue of $16.4 billion fell short of its own $16.7 billion target, and the 2026 forecast of $18.4 billion landed well below the Street’s $19.3 billion expectation. The stock fell 13.80% that day.
At the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference shortly after, CEO Peter Jackson attributed the Q4 weakness to 11 straight weeks of unusually high gross win margins in the NFL, which squeezed bettor returns and drove customers to reduce activity. He acknowledged the internal execution gap directly: “I think we didn’t execute on our generosity playbook as effectively as we should have done in Q4.”
That framing matters. Full-year revenue still grew 17%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 21% to $2.8 billion. An operationally broken company does not produce those results.
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Is Flutter Entertainment Undervalued Today?
Flutter currently trades at around 10.6x NTM EV/EBITDA, a measure of what the market pays per dollar of forward operating earnings. That is down from above 14x for most of 2025 and reflects how severely sentiment has shifted.
The peer comparison makes the discount concrete. DraftKings (DKNG), Flutter’s closest U.S. rival, trades at around 15.4x NTM EV/EBITDA despite holding a smaller U.S. market share and operating with no international revenue base. Evolution AB (EVO), the B2B live casino technology provider, trades at around 7.6x NTM EV/EBITDA, reflecting its narrower product scope.
Flutter sitting below DraftKings on this metric is the market’s way of saying FanDuel Predicts is a bigger risk than DraftKings’ comparable investment in prediction markets. Whether that discount is justified depends on one question.
That question is whether FanDuel Predicts becomes a real business or an expensive distraction.
Prediction markets let users bet on event outcomes through federally regulated contracts, meaning Flutter can offer it in states like California and Texas, where traditional sportsbooks remain banned. The cost to build it is real: Flutter is absorbing $200 to $300 million in EBITDA losses this year, with Coldrake saying at the Morgan Stanley conference that the company expects to land towards the upper end of that range. His timeline: contribution positive in 2027, cumulatively positive by 2028.
That two-year wait is what is keeping cautious investors in Hold territory.
Outside of Predicts, the business is healthier than the stock suggests. FanDuel exited Q4 2025 with 28% of U.S. iGaming GGR (gross gaming revenue, the amount players lose net of winnings paid out), supported by exclusive casino content and a loyalty program management is now extending to sports. U.S. revenue for the full year reached $6.8 billion.
Internationally, Italy’s Sisal and Snai brands are posting record metrics, Turkey is growing at more than 30% annually, and Brazil’s Betnacional is gaining momentum after management rebuilt its promotional and customer engagement infrastructure. Flutter is also actively buying back stock through its $5 billion repurchase program, with the current fifth tranche deploying up to $250 million through May 21.
The risks are real and worth naming clearly. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are drawing volume from regulated sportsbooks, and MoffettNathanson downgraded the sector on April 24, noting that regulatory clarity on prediction markets is now a prerequisite for a meaningful re-rating of the group. U.K. tax increases taking effect in April 2026 add margin pressure in one of Flutter’s most profitable markets. Net debt stood at $10.3 billion as of December 31, 2025, meaning Flutter has less room than it would like to absorb a prolonged U.S. softness scenario.
The near-term resolution point is May 1, when Flutter reports Q1 2026 earnings. Coldrake flagged at the Morgan Stanley conference that he had seen “sequential improvement in volume, in revenue, particularly in the NBA” after the NFL season ended. If that shows up in the Q1 numbers and the full-year guide holds, the case for FLUT at current prices strengthens materially.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $111.57
- TIKR Mid-Case Target: ~$322
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~189%
- Annualized IRR (Mid): ~25% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model uses a revenue CAGR of around 9% through 2030 and net income margins expanding to around 9%. The two revenue drivers are U.S. iGaming expansion, where only about 11% of the U.S. population currently lives in a state where online casino gaming is legal, and international markets where Italy, Brazil, and Turkey are all accelerating. The margin driver is operating leverage, as Flutter works toward extracting around $300 million in platform cost savings by 2027 through migrations, including PokerStars in Italy and Sky Bet in the U.K.
That path produces a mid-case target of around $322 by 12/31/30, implying around 189% total return and around 25% annualized IRR from today’s price. The high case, based on faster iGaming state legalization and FanDuel Predicts gaining real traction, points to around $538. The low case, where prediction market headwinds persist, and 2026 guidance proves too optimistic, implies around $310 with a sharply lower IRR.
The central risk is unchanged: if FanDuel Predicts does not reach contribution positivity by 2027 and U.S. sportsbook handle does not recover, near-term earnings disappoint, and the stock likely re-tests its lows before any rebound. Investors buying Flutter here are accepting that uncertainty in exchange for what the model suggests is a compelling return if the business executes.
Conclusion
Watch Flutter’s Q1 2026 earnings on May 1 for two things: whether U.S. sportsbook handle has recovered from NFL-season lows, and whether the full-year 2026 EBITDA guide holds. If both do, the stock has a credible floor. If guidance gets cut again, the lone Sell on Wall Street may find company.
Flutter is the world’s leading online sports betting and iGaming operator, down 65% from its 52-week high, trading below its closest U.S. peer on a forward earnings multiple, with 20 of 26 analysts still recommending the stock. The Q1 report will tell investors whether this is a buying opportunity or a falling knife.
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Should You Invest in Flutter Entertainment?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Flutter Entertainment, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Flutter Entertainment alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
