Key Stats for AbbVie Stock
- Current Price: $282.68
- Target Price (Mid): ~$367
- Street Target: ~$283
- Potential Total Return: ~30%
- Annualized IRR: ~6% / year
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What Happened?
AbbVie (ABBV) presented primary Phase 2a results for ABBV-466, its investigational two-drug Crohn’s disease combination, at a gastroenterology meeting in Barcelona on October 19. By Week 24, 40.5% of patients on the combination reached endoscopic remission (little to no visible inflammation on a scope), against 22.4% on Skyrizi alone. Shares slipped 0.96% that day to $282.68, leaving them up 23.7% for 2026 and roughly level with the Street’s mean target. Third-quarter results are due before the open on October 30, according to AbbVie’s investor relations materials. A muted reaction is consistent with the timeline, because the combination is years from sale.
The Week 24 Data Came Close to the “Doubling” Thakkar Cited
At Morgan Stanley’s healthcare conference on September 15, Head of R&D and Chief Scientific Officer Roopal Thakkar described interim Phase IIa data “which showed a doubling of endoscopic remission versus Skyrizi,” without naming a timepoint. The primary results in AbbVie’s October 19 release come close at Week 24, at 1.8 times Skyrizi’s rate. They fall short at the Week 12 primary endpoint: 30.2% against 21.3%, about 1.4 times.
The study is open-label and ongoing, with 300 patients, and the release reports no p-values. Still, 75% of patients had failed at least one advanced therapy, and serious adverse events ran 10.4% against 9.6% on Skyrizi. Thakkar said the next Phase IIb will test a higher dose of the α4β7 drug, which limits immune-cell traffic to the gut. He added that AbbVie has “a reasonable level of confidence that these will be co-formulated and delivered in a single injection.”
Chief Commercial Officer Jeff Stewart placed the commercial payoff in the early 2030s. The nearer catalyst is subcutaneous (under-the-skin) Skyrizi induction for Crohn’s. On September 15, Stewart said AbbVie expected approval in the fourth quarter, and the October 13 AFFIRM release still listed it under FDA review. In that separate, placebo-controlled trial, it reached 35.8% endoscopic remission at Week 24 against 9.1% on placebo. The two trials enrolled different patients and defined remission differently, so their rates do not compare directly.
A 24% Run Has Caught Up With the Street’s Targets
Chairman and CEO Rob Michael described a business that has already absorbed “$18 billion of HUMIRA erosion, and we’ve offset that with $28 billion of ex-HUMIRA growth platform.” He said 2026 guidance sits almost $10 billion above AbbVie’s peak before Humira’s decline. TIKR data backs the swap: Skyrizi and Rinvoq sold $25.87 billion in 2025, more than Humira’s $20.69 billion in 2021. Stewart said both drugs still capture new and switching patients well ahead of their total prescription share.
The Street now sits about where the stock does. The mean target was 14.6% above the price on March 31. On October 16 it stood at $282.61, 7 cents below the October 19 close, even after Morgan Stanley’s raise to $310 on October 7.
Part of the October run was sector-wide. On October 14, Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK) and AbbVie each rose 3% or more while the Nasdaq fell, and Kalkine found no major company announcement behind the gains. AbbVie’s new AFFIRM data had come out on October 13.
Guidance moved the other way. On October 5, AbbVie lowered 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $13.76 to $13.96. The cause was a $216 million pre-tax acquired-research and milestone charge, worth $0.11 per share, rather than an operating shortfall. The new third-quarter range of $3.73 to $3.77 sits below TIKR’s average estimate of $3.79, while the median estimate of $3.77 matches its top.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $282.68
- Target Price (Mid): ~$367
- Potential Total Return: ~30%
- Annualized IRR: ~6% / year
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The mid case is the only scenario the TIKR model reports at its December 31, 2030 horizon. It projects around $367, a total return of around 30%, or about 6% a year from $282.68. In the model’s separate 2025 to 2035 forecast, the mid case assumes EPS growth of around 9% a year. That depends on Skyrizi and Rinvoq holding their share gains while subcutaneous dosing reaches Crohn’s patients. Upside comes if combinations like ABBV-466 extend that growth into the 2030s. Downside comes if growth slows before they arrive, with shares already level with the Street’s mean target.
Conclusion
Adjusted EPS at or above the $3.79 average estimate, plus the subcutaneous Skyrizi approval, would support a stock trading at its mean target. A print near the $3.73 low end would carry extra weight, because AbbVie shares fell on four of their last five report days.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
