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I ricavi di Eli Lilly sono aumentati del 46% nel Q2 e l'azienda si avvicina a una capitalizzazione di mercato da 1.000 miliardi di dollari

David Beren5 minuti di lettura
Recensito da: David Hanson
Ultimo aggiornamento Aug 5, 2026

Industrial Photograph via Canva

Statistiche Chiave per l'Azione Eli Lilly

  • Range Ultimi 52 Settimane: $623.78 – $1,249.45
  • Prezzo Attuale: $1,115.68
  • Prezzo Target della Piazze Finanziaria: ~$1,277
  • P/E NTM: ~31x
  • Rendimento YTD: +3.3%
  • Dividend Yield: 0.6%
  • Capitalizzazione di Mercato: ~$995B

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Un Altro Trimestre di Ricavi a +46%, Un Altro Aumento delle Previsioni

Eli Lilly (LLY) è stata una delle storie di crescita più straordinarie nel settore farmaceutico a grande capitalizzazione per tre anni consecutivi. Il motore dietro questo successo è la franchise degli incretini: Mounjaro, un agonista dei recettori GLP-1 e GIP approvato per il diabete di tipo 2, e Zepbound, la stessa molecola approvata per l'obesità e l'apnea del sonno.

I farmaci GLP-1 agiscono mimando gli ormoni che regolano la glicemia e l'appetito, producendo una significativa perdita di peso insieme a importanti benefici metabolici. Ciò che è iniziato come un trattamento per il diabete è diventato la categoria di farmaci in più rapida crescita nella storia dell'industria farmaceutica.

Il secondo trimestre 2026 ha prolungato la serie positiva, con ricavi a $22,97 miliardi, in aumento del 46% su base annua, mettendo Lilly sulla strada per generare circa $85 miliardi per l'intero anno. Il reddito operativo ha raggiunto $8,58 miliardi nel trimestre, in aumento del 31%.

L'EPS non-GAAP di $8,38 è risultato ben al di sopra del consenso, e le previsioni per l'intero anno sono state nuovamente aumentate. La cifra dei ricavi semestrali di $42,77 miliardi, in aumento del 51% rispetto all'anno precedente, mostra che il tasso di crescita è rimasto costante anche mentre gli importi assoluti in dollari crescono.

Un numero del Q2 merita attenzione. Lilly ha registrato $2,78 miliardi in oneri per ricerca e sviluppo acquisiti in corso, principalmente legati alle acquisizioni di Aktis Oncology e Centessa Pharmaceuticals. Queste rappresentano Lilly che impiega capitale per costruire il portafoglio di prodotti che seguirà il picco di crescita dei GLP-1, e il grafico dei ricavi mostra perché questo investimento è importante.

Stime dei Ricavi di Eli Lilly. (TIKR)

Le stime del consenso mostrano i ricavi salire da $65 miliardi nel 2025 verso $85 miliardi nel 2026, per poi moderarsi a $99 miliardi nel 2027 e $133 miliardi entro il 2030. Il tasso di crescita implicito decelera dal 46% di oggi verso circa il 12% alla fine del decennio.

Se ciò rifletta una maturazione realistica del mercato dei GLP-1 o una sottostima dell'opportunità dei farmaci per l'obesità è il dibattito analitico centrale per chiunque tenti di valutare Lilly oggi.

Vedi le previsioni di crescita e i target price degli analisti per l'azione Eli Lilly (È gratuito) >>>

Spese Aggressive e Ancora $9 Miliardi di Free Cash Flow Generati

Uno degli aspetti più sottovalutati dell'attuale posizione di Lilly è che l'azienda sta finanziando un enorme piano di investimenti in capitale e genera comunque un sostanziale free cash flow. Produrre farmaci GLP-1 su larga scala richiede strutture costruite appositamente che impiegano anni per essere realizzate, e Lilly ha speso pesantemente sia in capex organico che in asset di pipeline acquisiti durante questa fase di crescita.

Il FCF è stato di $6,1 miliardi nel 2021 e $5,7 miliardi nel 2022 prima di crollare a $792 milioni nel 2023 quando gli investimenti produttivi hanno raggiunto il picco. È rimbalzato nettamente a $3,8 miliardi nel 2024 e $9,0 miliardi nel 2025.

Generare $9 miliardi di free cash flow annuale mentre contemporaneamente si spendono $2,78 miliardi in acquisizioni di pipeline in un singolo trimestre e si gestisce uno dei più grandi programmi di investimento nell'industria farmaceutica è un segno significativo della qualità del business.

Free Cash Flow di Eli Lilly. (TIKR)

Gli investimenti in pipeline dietro queste spese meritano di essere compresi. Aktis Oncology porta la terapia radiologica mirata nel portafoglio oncologico di Lilly, un approccio terapeutico che utilizza molecole radioattive per consegnare radiazioni direttamente alle cellule tumorali, risparmiando il tessuto circostante.

Centessa aggiunge asset in fase clinica in diverse aree di malattia. Nessuno dei due è una copertura contro i GLP-1; entrambi rappresentano il tentativo di Lilly di costruire il business che seguirà l'attuale franchise.

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Cosa Dice il Modello di Valutazione sull'Azione Eli Lilly

Il target dello scenario medio del modello di valutazione TIKR risulta essere circa $2.140, rappresentando un potenziale rendimento totale di circa il 92% a un tasso annualizzato di circa il 16% su 4,4 anni.

Il modello presuppone ricavi in crescita a circa il 12% annuo, margini di reddito netto in espansione fino a circa il 43% e EPS che si compongono a circa il 15% all'anno. Una compressione del multiplo di circa l'1,6% annuo è incorporata, il che significa che i rendimenti sono guidati dalla crescita degli utili piuttosto che da una rivalutazione.

Modello di Valutazione di Eli Lilly. (TIKR)

A circa 31 volte gli utili forward, Lilly non è economica secondo qualsiasi misura tradizionale. Il target del consenso della piazza finanziaria di circa $1.277 implica un potenziale rialzo di circa il 14% dai livelli attuali.

Lo scenario alto nel modello raggiunge circa $3.884 a un tasso annualizzato di circa il 16%, sebbene ciò richieda che il mercato dell'obesità si sviluppi più velocemente dell'attuale consenso e che gli asset di pipeline generino ricavi significativi prima che la crescita dei GLP-1 rallenti in modo sostanziale.

Dovresti Comprare l'Azione Eli Lilly?

I risultati del Q2 di Lilly hanno confermato ciò che sei trimestri precedenti avevano stabilito: questo è un business che opera a un livello eccezionalmente alto, genera cassa reale e la investe intelligentemente nella prossima fase di crescita.

I rischi sono specifici: pressione competitiva dalla pipeline di Novo Nordisk, pressione sui prezzi da parte dei gestori dei benefici farmaceutici che riconsiderano la copertura dei GLP-1 e incertezza sul fatto che gli asset di pipeline acquisiti alla fine si dimostrino efficaci.

A $1.115 e avvicinandosi a una capitalizzazione di mercato di $1 trilione, Lilly è valutata per una continua esecuzione, lasciando poco spazio a un significativo mancato raggiungimento degli obiettivi.

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the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same
Nikko HensonAug 4, 2026

Unisciti a migliaia di investitori in tutto il mondo che usano TIKR per superare la loro analisi degli investimenti.

Iscriviti GRATISNon è richiesta la carta di credito