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Le azioni di Oracle sono salite del 9% in un giorno, ma sono ancora in calo del 28% nel 2026. L'accordo con Google è un vero catalizzatore?

Wiltone Asuncion6 minuti di lettura
Recensito da: David Hanson
Ultimo aggiornamento Aug 4, 2026

@Laura Tancredi from Pexels via Canva, @Yuri_Arcurs from Getty Images Signature via Canva

Statistiche Chiave per l'Azione Oracle

  • Prezzo Corrente: $141.85
  • Prezzo Obiettivo (Medio): ~$486
  • Obiettivo della Strada: ~$248
  • Potenziale Rendimento Totale: ~243%
  • TIR Annualizzato: ~29% / anno

Ora Live: Scopri quanto potenziale rialzista potrebbero avere le tue azioni preferite utilizzando il nuovo Modello di Valutazione di TIKR (È gratuito) >>>

Cosa è Successo?

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) ha chiuso in rialzo del 9,22% il 3 agosto a $141,85, il suo guadagno giornaliero più forte dell'anno, in una giornata in cui due forze hanno tirato nella stessa direzione. Gli investitori continuavano a premiare un accordo firmato il 30 luglio, quando Oracle e Google Cloud hanno ampliato la loro partnership per portare i modelli Gemini di Google nelle Fusion Applications, NetSuite e AI Agent Studio di Oracle. Un ampio rally del cloud, scatenato dal superamento da parte di Amazon della valutazione di $3 trilioni grazie a una crescita del 37% di AWS, ha fornito il resto.

Anche dopo quel balzo, l'azione è scesa di circa il 28% nel 2026 e si trova al 59% al di sotto del suo massimo a 52 settimane di $345,72. Una giornata forte non annulla un anno in cui Oracle ha speso fino a generare un flusso di cassa libero profondamente negativo. La domanda è se l'accordo con Google cambi la tesi di investimento o fornisca semplicemente a un'azione malconcia una scusa per un rimbalzo tecnico.

Perché l'Accordo Gemini ha Colpito un Nervo che il Backlog Non ha Mai Toccato

Gran parte del dibattito su Oracle nel 2026 si è concentrato sull'infrastruttura: gli obblighi di prestazione residui che hanno raggiunto i $638 miliardi lo scorso trimestre, i gigawatt dei data center, i contratti GPU con nomi come OpenAI e Meta. L'accordo con Google punta altrove. Mira al livello delle applicazioni, la parte di Oracle che già genera cassa.

In base all'accordo del 30 luglio, Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite e Gemini 3.5 Flash diventano disponibili all'interno di Oracle AI Agent Studio, con piani per incorporarli in Fusion e NetSuite. I clienti possono costruire agenti di IA su software che già utilizzano, senza dover procurare separatamente un modello di base. Chris Leone, EVP dello Sviluppo Applicazioni di Oracle, ha inquadrato la logica attorno alla scelta: "le organizzazioni hanno bisogno della flessibilità di scegliere il modello di IA più adatto a ciascun problema". Questo è importante perché monetizza l'IA sul lato dell'azienda con margini più elevati, non solo sul lato dell'infrastruttura avido di capitale. Le entrate delle applicazioni cloud sono state di $4,1 miliardi lo scorso trimestre, in aumento del 10%, con i ricavi differiti SaaS in aumento del 16%, quindi la base su cui questo strato di IA vende è già in crescita.

Drawdown di Oracle (TIKR)

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Il Problema del Flusso di Cassa che il Rally Non ha Risolto

Niente di tutto ciò cambia la matematica che ha fatto scendere Oracle del 59% dal suo picco. Il flusso di cassa libero è profondamente negativo perché le spese in conto capitale stanno sopraffacendo il flusso di cassa operativo. Il management ha fornito previsioni per l'esborso netto di cassa per le spese in conto capitale dell'anno fiscale 2027 a circa $70 miliardi, con il capex riportato più alto una volta aggiunti $20-25 miliardi di pagamenti anticipati dei clienti. Per finanziarlo, il CFO Hilary Maxson ha dichiarato che Oracle prevede di raccogliere circa $40 miliardi di debito e capitale proprio in questo anno fiscale, contro un debito netto di circa $135 miliardi e un rapporto debito netto/EBITDA di 4,07x.

La risposta dei tori è che la spesa è per una domanda contrattualizzata, non speculativa. Maxson ha indicato un ritorno sul capitale investito a regime negli alti anni '20 una volta che i progetti saranno a pieno regime, e Clay Magouyrk ha detto che l'utilizzo delle GPU è al 97,5%, con la capacità liberata presa quasi immediatamente al rinnovo. Il rischio risiede nella concentrazione della clientela: gran parte del backlog di $638 miliardi è legato a un piccolo numero di conti hyperscale, quindi un singolo ritardo nello scale-up sposta l'intera curva del flusso di cassa. In termini di valutazione, Oracle scambia a 17,6x gli utili NTM e 11,0x EV/EBITDA NTM, al di sotto di Microsoft a 24,8x utili e ServiceNow a 25,2x, secondo la pagina Competitors di TIKR. Il problema è che entrambi i pari generano cassa oggi mentre Oracle lo brucia, quindi lo sconto è il mercato che richiede prove prima di pagare un premio.

Entrate di Oracle (TIKR)

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Analisi del Modello Avanzato TIKR

  • Prezzo Corrente: $141.85
  • Prezzo Obiettivo (Medio): ~$486
  • Potenziale Rendimento Totale: ~243%
  • TIR Annualizzato: ~29% / anno
Modello di Valutazione Avanzato di Oracle (TIKR)

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Il modello di TIKR, utilizzando ipotesi di scenario medio realizzate nel 2031, indica un prezzo di circa $486, implicando un potenziale rialzista totale di circa il 243% e un rendimento annualizzato del 29% nei prossimi 4,8 anni. Questo si colloca molto al di sopra del prezzo obiettivo medio della Strada di circa $248, che riflette lo stesso scenario su un orizzonte più breve e con una crescita assunta inferiore. Il divario tra i due è l'intero disaccordo su Oracle: quanto del backlog si converte e con quale velocità.

Il modello si basa su due driver di entrate: la scalabilità dell'infrastruttura cloud man mano che la capacità contrattualizzata diventa operativa, e la capitalizzazione composta della suite di applicazioni man mano che la monetizzazione dell'IA attraverso accordi come la partnership Gemini aumenta i tassi di adozione. Il driver dei margini è la leva operativa man mano che i data center raggiungono i ricavi contrattuali completi. Il rischio principale è la concentrazione della clientela nel backlog. Il potenziale rialzista è un'azienda che capitalizza ricavi superiori al 20% con margini in ripresa man mano che il capex si normalizza. Il rischio al ribasso è un bilancio indebitato che finanzia una capacità che scala più lentamente di quanto contrattualizzato, mantenendo il flusso di cassa libero negativo e il multiplo compresso.

Conclusione

La prossima vera prova sono gli utili del Q1 dell'anno fiscale 2027, che Oracle dovrebbe pubblicare a settembre. Il management ha fornito previsioni di crescita delle entrate totali del 27% al 29% e di crescita delle entrate cloud del 58% al 64%, le più veloci di questo ciclo. Raggiungere l'estremo superiore confermerebbe che il backlog si sta convertendo secondo i piani e darebbe spazio alla storia delle applicazioni più Gemini di correre. Scendere al di sotto, o qualsiasi indebolimento nelle previsioni sul flusso di cassa, segnalerebbe che lo scale-up sta rallentando e rimanderebbe l'azione verso i minimi da cui è appena rimbalzata. Una giornata al 9% ha dimostrato che il mercato vuole crederci. Settembre dimostrerà se dovrebbe. 

Scopri quali azioni stanno acquistando gli investitori miliardari così puoi seguire il denaro intelligente con TIKR.

Dovresti Investire in Oracle?

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Apri Oracle e vedrai anni di dati finanziari storici, cosa si aspettano gli analisti di Wall Street per entrate e utili nei trimestri futuri, come si sono mossi i multipli di valutazione nel tempo e se i prezzi obiettivo sono in tendenza al rialzo o al ribasso.

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Disclaimer:

Si prega di notare che gli articoli su TIKR non intendono servire come consigli di investimento o finanziari da parte di TIKR o del nostro team di contenuti, né sono raccomandazioni per acquistare o vendere alcuna azione. Creiamo i nostri contenuti sulla base dei dati di investimento del TIKR Terminal e delle stime degli analisti. La nostra analisi potrebbe non includere notizie aziendali recenti o aggiornamenti importanti. TIKR non ha posizioni in alcuna azione menzionata. Grazie per la lettura e buoni investimenti!

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Palantir è Salito del 29% Oggi. Ecco Cosa Potrebbe Mantenere Vivo il Rally dell'IA Fino al 2026

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the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same as the same
Nikko HensonAug 4, 2026

Unisciti a migliaia di investitori in tutto il mondo che usano TIKR per superare la loro analisi degli investimenti.

Iscriviti GRATISNon è richiesta la carta di credito