Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: WDC) has become one of the market’s notable rebound stories. After a sharp recovery, the stock now trades near $98/share, up more than 50% in the past year. Improving storage demand, margin recovery, and optimism around AI-driven data growth have fueled the move.
But with the memory market known for sharp cycles and valuation models pointing to downside, analysts appear split on what comes next.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Western Digital could trade by 2028. We have pulled together consensus targets, growth forecasts, and valuation models to get a sense of the stock’s possible trajectory. These figures reflect current analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Limited Upside
WDC trades at about $98/share today. The average analyst price target is $90, which points to a modest 7% downside. Forecasts show a wide spread and reflect divided sentiment:
- High estimate: ~$110/share
- Low estimate: ~$62/share
- Median target: ~$90/share
- Ratings: mostly Buys and Holds, with only 1 Underperform rating
It looks like analysts remain cautious even after the stock’s strong rebound. The broad range of estimates suggests conviction is weak, with some expecting gains while others see risk of a pullback.
For investors, this implies WDC may already reflect much of its recovery, and stronger results could be required to drive meaningful upside.
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Western Digital: Growth Outlook and Valuation
WDC’s fundamentals are improving, and the model suggests modest upside from here:
- Revenue is projected to grow ~8% annually over the next two years
- Operating margins could reach the high 20s, with analysts expecting about 27% by 2028
- Shares could trade at ~16.5x forward earnings, which is elevated due to the business’s improved performance
- Based on analysts’ estimates, the stock could reach about $137/share by mid-2028
- That would imply roughly 34% upside, or about 11% annualized returns
For investors, this means Western Digital may offer mid-teens annualized gains if it executes well, but the stock could still be more of a cyclical opportunity than a long-term compounding story.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Western Digital has been benefiting from rising storage demand just as AI and cloud expansion accelerate. Hyperscalers continue to build out data centers, which may support stronger orders for both flash and HDD products. Margins also appear to be recovering faster than many expected, giving the company momentum heading into the next cycle.
The balance sheet is another bright spot. With net debt under 1x EBITDA, WDC has room to invest in new capacity while weathering downturns. These improvements help explain why bulls believe the company may be well-positioned to ride secular demand trends.
For investors, the optimism centers on the idea that WDC could sustain its rebound if AI and cloud adoption keep driving storage needs. The combination of stronger demand and financial flexibility provides a constructive near-term setup.
Bear Case: Cyclicality and Valuation
Despite these positives, risks remain significant. The memory and storage market has historically been volatile, with revenues falling more than 20% annually during past downturns. If demand slows or pricing pressure returns, profitability could come under pressure again.
Valuation is another concern. At $98/share, WDC already trades above the average analyst target, which may limit room for error. If industry growth normalizes rather than accelerates, the stock could struggle to justify its current level.
For investors, the bear case is that WDC remains a classic boom-and-bust stock. While it may deliver rallies in upcycles, the downside can be sharp when conditions weaken, making it a less predictable long-term holding.
Outlook for 2028: What Could WDC Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model suggests ~$137/share by 2028. That would represent about 34% upside from today’s level, or roughly 11% annualized returns. The outcome assumes revenue growth of around 7–8% annually and operating margins expanding toward the high 20s.
While this forecast points to a healthier setup than in past cycles, it also shows that much of the recovery is already reflected in the valuation. For stronger returns, WDC would need either a more pronounced AI-driven demand surge or margin expansion beyond current expectations.
For investors, WDC looks like a cyclical recovery play anchored in the cloud buildout. The long-term path to outsized returns depends on how well the company sustains this momentum once the current cycle matures.
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