Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) has become one of the most polarizing names in the market. Known for its EV dominance and big bets on energy and AI, Tesla stock is up sharply this year and has made investors plenty of money.
Adding to the debate, Elon Musk has suggested that Tesla could eventually become the world’s most valuable company. He points to breakthroughs in full self-driving, a global robotaxi network, and even humanoid robots as catalysts that could transform Tesla from an automaker into a dominant AI and robotics platform. That bold vision contrasts sharply with analyst caution, highlighting the gap between market optimism around Tesla’s future and the more measured forecasts from Wall Street.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Tesla could trade by 2027. We’ve compiled consensus targets, valuation assumptions, and recent price action to get a sense of the stock’s possible trajectory. These figures reflect current analyst models and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest the Stock Is Overvalued
Tesla trades at about $396/share as of September 2025, while the 12-month average analyst price target is $314/share, implying nearly 20% downside from current levels.
- High target: $500
- Low target: $115
- Ratings: a mix of buys, holds, and sells
- Most analysts appear cautious and think the stock is already priced for perfection
The wide range of forecasts shows how uncertain Wall Street remains on Tesla’s long-term trajectory. Some believe Tesla can justify its premium with new businesses, while others see it as just another automaker with stretched multiples.
Analyst targets lean negative, which suggests the near-term balance of risk looks tilted to the downside unless Tesla delivers major surprises.
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Tesla: Growth Outlook and Valuation Concerns
Tesla’s growth has slowed compared to its earlier years.
- Revenue grew nearly 32% annually over the past five years
- Forecasts now show 11.2% annual growth through 2027
- EBIT margins are expected to rise slightly to 9.4% by 2027
Tesla’s valuation also looks quite demanding today:
- 201x forward earnings
- 78x EV/EBITDA
- The Guided Valuation Model assumes a 137x P/E in 2027
- That gives a fair value of about $505/share, or 28% upside
The numbers show some room for upside, but it depends on aggressive assumptions. If Tesla underdelivers, the stock could struggle at these levels.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Tesla bulls argue the company is more than an automaker and see multiple growth drivers ahead:
- Global brand recognition and loyal customers
- About $24B net cash that allows ongoing investment
- Expansion in AI, autonomy, and robotics
- Potential margin lift from software and services
Supporters highlight Tesla’s history of beating skeptics and launching entirely new markets, like EVs themselves. If Tesla can repeat this with self-driving or robotics, the long-term opportunity could be much bigger than cars.
The bull case rests on Tesla proving it can scale beyond cars. If new businesses take hold, today’s premium valuation may look more reasonable.
Bear Case: Valuation and Execution Risks
Skeptics point to valuation and execution challenges:
- At over 200x earnings, Tesla looks expensive against peers
- EV demand growth appears to be slowing in key markets
- Traditional automakers are ramping up competition
- Margins remain volatile with heavy capital spending
Bears argue that Tesla’s narrative has often run ahead of financial results. If growth slows while competitors catch up in EVs and hybrids, Tesla could start trading more like a traditional automaker than a tech company.
The bear case is that Tesla is priced for perfection. Any slowdown in growth or delay in execution could trigger a sharp correction.
Outlook for 2027: What Could Tesla Be Worth?
Wall Street remains split on where Tesla heads next.
- Consensus forecast: about $314/share, or nearly 20% downside
- Guided Valuation Model: about $505/share, or 28% upside
- The wide gap highlights just how uncertain the outlook is
The base case assumes Tesla’s margins improve slightly but not enough to justify current valuations. The bull case assumes Tesla transforms into a broader AI and energy platform that commands higher multiples.
Tesla’s future value depends on execution. Strong progress in AI, energy, and software could support higher prices, but slowing EV growth and high valuation make the downside risk hard to ignore.
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