Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has become the defining name of the AI boom. Known for its dominance in GPUs and growing role as the backbone of data centers, Nvidia stock is up sharply in recent years and has rewarded long-term holders. But with the valuation already high and competition in AI chips intensifying, analysts appear split on what comes next.
This article explores where Wall Street analysts think Nvidia could be by 2028. We’ve compiled consensus targets, valuation assumptions, and recent price action to outline the stock’s possible trajectory. These figures reflect current analyst models and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Limited Near-Term Upside
Nvidia’s stock trades at $168/share as of September 2025, while the 18-month average analyst price target sits at $180. That implies only about 7% upside from current levels. It appears that sentiment has been gradually improving, since the average target was closer to $139 a year ago, but expectations are already high.
Forecasts now range from a high of $270 to a low of $100, underscoring the wide divide between bulls and bears. Some analysts see Nvidia continuing to dominate AI infrastructure, while others suggest the stock price may already reflect too much optimism. The breadth of estimates highlights just how uncertain the long-term trajectory may be.
The near-term upside looks modest, and while sentiment has trended more positive, the wide spread in targets suggests caution.
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Nvidia: Growth Outlook and Valuation Concerns
Nvidia’s revenue is projected to grow at roughly 35% annually through 2028, with operating margins expected to expand above 64%. That combination of rapid growth and exceptional profitability could justify a strong valuation, but current levels already suggest investors are pricing in a best-case scenario.
As of today, Nvidia trades at nearly 30x forward earnings, which is expensive even by semiconductor standards. In our Guided Valuation Model, we applied a 29.6x forward P/E ratio, leading to a price target of about $295/share by January 2028. From today’s $168, that would represent roughly 75% upside, or about 26% annually.
To sustain this premium valuation, Nvidia may need to exceed revenue and margin forecasts or prove it can extend its dominance into new areas like automotive and AI software platforms. Otherwise, investors could face the risk that strong execution still fails to translate into outsized stock returns.
The long-term upside appears compelling, but only if Nvidia meets or surpasses lofty expectations.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Nvidia’s leadership in AI chips has been the central driver of its stock’s rise. Demand for GPUs from data centers continues to run ahead of supply, as hyperscalers and enterprises race to build AI capacity. Bulls argue that Nvidia has become the backbone of the AI ecosystem, providing not just hardware but also the CUDA software stack that locks developers into its platform.
Investors also point to Nvidia’s expansion into new areas like automotive chips, Omniverse for simulation, and AI-powered cloud services. These may provide additional growth levers beyond the core GPU business. With gross margins projected above 64%, the company appears well-positioned to keep generating strong free cash flow to reinvest in emerging opportunities.
Optimism rests on Nvidia’s ability to remain the default choice for AI workloads and to scale into new platforms.
Bear Case: Overvaluation and Lofty Expectations
Despite the strong growth outlook, Nvidia’s valuation looks stretched. At nearly 30x forward earnings, the stock already trades at a premium to the semiconductor sector. That leaves little margin for error if growth slows or margins fail to expand as expected.
Competition also appears to be intensifying. AMD and Intel are investing heavily in AI chips, while major customers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are developing their own silicon. If Nvidia loses share or faces pricing pressure, forecasts could prove too optimistic.
The risk is not whether Nvidia grows, but whether it can grow fast enough to justify today’s valuation. Expectations look high, and even strong results might not prevent a rerating if sentiment shifts.
Outlook for 2028: What Could Nvidia Be Worth?
Based on current analyst forecasts, Nvidia’s stock could reach about $295/share by January 2028. That would represent ~75% upside from today’s $168, translating to roughly 26% annualized gains.
This outlook assumes Nvidia delivers on expectations of ~35% annual revenue growth and margins expanding above 64%. Even with such strong performance, the valuation still looks demanding, which means investors may be paying a premium for growth that is already well-anticipated.
Nvidia still appears positioned as one of the strongest growth stories in tech, but the high bar leaves little room for disappointment. The stock’s returns may ultimately depend on whether AI adoption continues accelerating and Nvidia can defend its leadership against rising competition.
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