Key Takeaways:
- Revenue Momentum: Almirall S.A. is modeled to grow revenue at 11% annually through 2027, reflecting pipeline expansion and broader dermatology portfolio scale.
- Margin Expansion: Operating margins for Almirall S.A. are projected to reach 12% by 2027 as biologics mix improves cost efficiency versus legacy products.
- Price Projection: Based on earnings growth and a 34x exit multiple, Almirall S.A. stock could reach €21 by December 2027.
- Return Profile: This implies a 61% total return from the current price of €13 and an annualized return of 28% over the next 2 years.
Almirall S.A. (ALM) is a dermatology focused biopharmaceutical company that generated €1 billion in revenue in 2024 by selling prescription skin treatments across Europe and the United States.
In January 2026, Almirall announced six proof of concept studies by 2026 and targets double digit net sales growth through 2030.
Revenue increased 10% in 2024 as biologics adoption expanded and pricing remained stable across psoriasis and atopic dermatitis treatments.
Almirall generated about €50 million operating profit in 2024, resulting in 5% margins as higher research spending pressured near-term earnings.
Despite improving growth and a path toward 12% margins, Almirall trades near 34x earnings, reflecting high expectations for pipeline success.
What the Model Says for ALM Stock
We analyzed Almirall stock based on rising dermatology sales, expanding biologics exposure, and improving profitability as pipeline investments convert into earnings.
Assuming 11.4% revenue growth, 11.7% operating margins, and a 33.7x exit P/E, the model values Almirall at €21.32 from €13.22.
This implies a 61.3% total return, or a 27.7% annualized return over the next 1.9 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for ALM stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 11.4%
Almirall delivered 10.2% one-year revenue growth, while five- and ten-year growth of 2.9% and 2.3% reflect a slower pre-dermatology base.
Recent results show revenue momentum rebuilding as biologics scale, with management targeting double-digit net sales growth through 2030.
Growth visibility improves as six proof-of-concept studies advance by 2026, though clinical timelines and geographic concentration add execution risk.
An 11.4% revenue growth assumption balances stronger dermatology demand against clinical and launch risk, supporting a 27.7% annualized return.
2. Operating Margins: 11.7%
Almirall historically operated with compressed profitability, posting operating margins near 6% as elevated R&D spending weighed on earnings during prolonged pipeline investment.
Current execution points to margin recovery as biologics scale, fixed research costs normalize, and commercial leverage improves across higher-value dermatology therapies.
Margin expansion depends on continued uptake of core brands and cost discipline, while late-stage trial setbacks or launch delays could slow normalization.
Operating margins of 11.7% reflect a move toward sustainable profitability as R&D pressure eases, supporting a 27.7% annualized return.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 33.7x
Almirall has historically traded at elevated earnings multiples, ranging from roughly 32x to 43x, reflecting scarcity value in dermatology assets and long-duration growth expectations.
Investor caution persists given near-term earnings volatility, yet optimism centers on biologics scale, pipeline breadth, and improving earnings visibility through 2027.
For valuation support, Almirall must translate clinical progress into commercial sales while maintaining balance-sheet flexibility after issuing €250 million senior notes at 3.75%.
A 33.7x exit multiple implies a €21.32 target price and a 61.3% total return based on expected pipeline execution.
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Almirall’s outcomes depend on dermatology pipeline execution, biologics uptake, and disciplined R&D spending, setting up a range of possible paths through 2027.
- Low Case: If clinical timelines stretch and launches progress more slowly, revenue grows around 11.4% and margins hold near 11.7% → 27.7% annualized return.
- Mid Case: With core dermatology products scaling as planned and cost control improving, revenue growth near 11.4% with margins around 11.7% → 27.7% annualized return.
- High Case: If pipeline milestones land on schedule and biologics adoption exceeds expectations, revenue reaches about 11.4% and margins approach 11.7% → 27.7% annualized return.
How Much Upside Does It Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
