Key Takeaways:
- Portfolio Focus: Campari is simplifying its brand portfolio after divesting Averna and Zedda Piras for €100 million, sharpening focus on higher-return core brands and capital discipline.
- Price Projection: Based on the valuation model, Campari shares could reach €8 by 2027 as normalized growth and stable margins support earnings visibility.
- Upside Potential: The €8 target represents about 37% total upside from the current price of €6, assuming revenue growth near 4% and margins hold close to historical levels.
- Annual Return: That upside translates into roughly 17% annualized returns over the next 2 years, driven by earnings recovery rather than multiple expansion.
Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (CPR) is a global spirits group with over 70 brands, generating €3 billion in revenue across aperitifs, spirits, and non-alcoholic drinks, where brand scale and route-to-market depth support pricing and volume resilience in 2024.
In December 2025, Campari agreed to sell Averna and Zedda Piras for €100 million, part of a broader €210 million divestment plan aimed at reducing debt and refocusing the portfolio on fewer, higher-return brands.
Campari delivered operating income of roughly €600 million in 2024, with operating margins near 21%, showing that pricing power and cost discipline remain intact despite slower volume growth.
Normalized net profit stood at about €380 million in 2024 which supported the updated market capitalization of roughly €7 billion and reinforcing Campari’s position as a profitable but maturing global consumer staples business.
Net income declined to €180 million from €330 million in 2023 as higher interest expense and restructuring charges weighed on reported earnings, highlighting the cost of balance sheet pressure.
Despite stable cash generation and a €6 billion market cap, the stock trades near 18× forward earnings, raising the question of whether portfolio simplification can restore earnings momentum fast enough to justify current expectations.
What the Model Says for CPR Stock
We evaluated Campari using stable brand-led operations, disciplined capital allocation, and portfolio simplification translating steady earnings into shareholder returns.
Assuming 4.0% revenue growth, 21.1% operating margins, and an 18.1x exit multiple, the model estimates shares reach €8.
That implies 37.2% total upside from €5.75 today, equal to a 17.3% annualized return.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for CPR stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 4%
Campari expanded revenue from about €2.2 billion in 2021, €2.9 billion in 2023, to roughly €3.1 billion in 2024, marking a shift from post-pandemic acceleration toward a normalized growth profile.
Growth slowed to low single digits in 2024 as spirits demand softened, yet pricing actions and premium aperitif brands continued to outperform broader category trends across core markets.
Portfolio changes, including the €100 million sale of Averna and Zedda Piras, reduce reported revenue but improve growth quality by concentrating resources on higher-return brands.
According to pooled market forecasts, a 4.0% revenue growth assumption balances steady brand momentum with portfolio simplification and a mature global spirits demand environment.
2. Operating Margins: 21%
Campari maintains a structurally strong margin profile, with gross margins near 59% and operating margins ranging between 19% and 22% over recent cycles.
Operating margins held close to 21% in 2024 despite higher interest costs and restructuring charges, signaling resilient pricing power and disciplined cost management.
Divestment of lower-margin brands and reduced portfolio complexity support margin stability, while easing input cost inflation improves operating leverage over the next two years.
In line with analyst consensus projections, operating margins near 21.1% reflect normalization toward historical averages without assuming material efficiency breakthroughs.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 17x
Campari currently trades in the high teens on forward earnings, reflecting investor caution after earnings volatility and slower volume growth across the spirits industry.
Historically, the stock has commanded higher multiples during periods of faster growth and clearer balance sheet momentum, while lower multiples followed earnings pressure phases.
Sustaining a valuation near current levels depends on stable earnings delivery, continued cash generation, and successful reinvestment into core premium brands.
Based on street consensus estimates, an 18.1x exit multiple represents a balanced view of earnings quality improvement without assuming a return to peak historical valuations.
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Campari outcomes depend on premium spirits demand, pricing discipline, portfolio focus after recent divestments, and whether valuation remains anchored to a slower global consumption backdrop. Here is how Campari stock might perform in different scenarios through 2027:
- Low Case: If revenue grows around 4.0% as spirits demand stays muted and portfolio pruning limits volume, while net margins hold near 14% and valuation pressure persists, returns rely mainly on earnings compounding → 10.6% annualized return.
- Mid Case: With revenue growth at 4.5% supported by pricing and core brand strength, and net margins improving toward 15% → 16.4% annualized return.
- High Case: If premium aperitifs and spirits outperform expectations, revenue reaches close to 5% with net margins approaching 16% → 21.5% annualized return.
Campari continues to show resilient brand strength despite a cautious consumption environment, while portfolio actions improve earnings quality rather than headline growth.
If premium aperitifs and spirits regain momentum and margins remain intact, the targeted upside case looks achievable through steady execution rather than multiple expansion.
How Much Upside Does It Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
