Trading Near 52-Week Lows, Can Commvault Stock Rebound in 2026?

Key Takeaways:

• SaaS Momentum: Subscription ARR grew 28% year-over-year, with SaaS ARR climbing 40% to $364 million.
• Price Projection: Based on current execution, CVLT stock could reach $114 by March 2028.
• Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 30% from the current price of $87.63.
• Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 13% growth over the next 2.1 years.

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Commvault Systems (CVLT) delivered strong third-quarter fiscal 2026 results with 30% subscription revenue growth and record customer acquisition. The company added 700 new subscription customers and achieved the Rule of 40, balancing growth with profitability.

CEO Sanjay Mirchandani emphasized the company’s leadership in innovation with the Commvault Cloud Unity platform. This release brings together data security, identity resilience, and cyber recovery on one platform, powered by the Metallic AI fabric.

• The cyber resilience market is expanding as organizations face sophisticated attacks and embrace AI workloads.
• Commvault’s platform addresses these challenges by continuously securing data, controlling access through identity management, and enabling predictable recovery at scale.
• SaaS ARR reached $364 million, growing 40% year-over-year. The company’s Identity Resilience offerings gained traction, with Active Directory protection doubling its ARR.
• Partnerships with AWS, including achieving AWS Resilience Competency in the Recovery category and winning the 2025 AWS Global Storage Partner of the Year award, validate Commvault’s cloud-native capabilities.
• The Clumio acquisition strengthens the company’s position in cloud-native data protection.
• New partnerships, including one with Pinecone for vector database protection, position Commvault to capture AI-driven data growth.

Despite these positives, the stock trades at $87.63, leaving room for upside for investors who recognize the company’s strategic position in enterprise cyber resilience.

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What the Model Says for Commvault Stock

We analyzed Commvault’s transformation into a comprehensive cyber-resilience platform, with strong SaaS momentum and expanding enterprise adoption.

The company benefits from structural tailwinds. Enterprise data volumes are exploding with AI adoption, creating more attack surfaces that need protection.

Ransomware attacks continue to escalate, forcing organizations to invest in resilience infrastructure.

Commvault’s Unity platform differentiates through integration. Rather than requiring multiple point solutions, customers get unified data security, identity protection, and recovery capabilities. This approach reduces complexity and total cost of ownership.

The shift to subscription and SaaS models provides predictable recurring revenue.

• SaaS customers landing at lower initial contract values expand over time as they add workloads.
• Nearly 50% of enterprise SaaS customers now use multiple offerings, up from around 30%-40% last year.
• Management expects continued SaaS momentum as customers migrate to hybrid cloud architectures.
• The company’s partnerships with major cloud providers and sovereign cloud initiatives in Europe create additional growth opportunities.

Using a forecast of 14.1% annual revenue growth and 20.1% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $114 within 2.1 years. This assumes an 18.2x price-to-earnings multiple.

That represents compression from Commvault’s historical P/E averages of 38.5x (one year) and 34.2x (three years). The lower multiple reflects market concerns about the subscription transition and near-term margin pressures from investment spending.

The real opportunity lies in capturing enterprise cyber-resilience spending as organizations modernize their infrastructure and address evolving threats.

Our Valuation Assumptions

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Our Valuation Assumptions

TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.

Here’s what we used for CVLT stock:

1. Revenue Growth: 14.1%

Commvault’s growth centers on demand for cyber resilience and cloud migration.

• The company delivered 19% total revenue growth in Q3, with subscription revenue up 30%.
• Management raised full-year subscription revenue guidance to $764-768 million, representing 30% growth at the midpoint.
• Fiscal 2026 total ARR is expected to grow approximately 18% in constant currency, driven by 24% subscription ARR growth.
• The company’s land-and-expand model is working, with strong new customer acquisition in both term software and SaaS.
• International markets showed strength, and the Unity platform launch positions the company to capture more wallet share.

2. Operating margins: 20.1%

Commvault expanded non-GAAP EBIT margins to 19.6% in Q3 and raised full-year guidance to 19-20%.

Gross margins improved to 81.5%, reflecting better product mix and operational efficiency, with full-year guidance at the same level of 81% to 81.5%

The company initiated a cost-optimization program to align resources with its growth priorities.

Management expects continued margin expansion through economies of scale as the SaaS business matures.

3. Exit P/E Multiple: 18.2x

The market values Commvault at 19.2x current earnings. We assume slight compression to 18.2x over our forecast period.

This conservative approach accounts for execution risks in the SaaS transition and competitive pressures.

As Commvault demonstrates sustained SaaS growth and Unity platform traction, the company should command a premium for its recurring revenue profile and market position.

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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?

Enterprise software transitions create uncertainty. Here’s how Commvault stock might perform under different scenarios through March 2030:

• Low Case: If revenue growth moderates to 11% and net income margins compress to 15.8%, investors still see a 28.3% total return (6.2% annually).
• Mid Case: With 12.2% growth and 17% margins, we expect a total return of 64.1% (12.7% annually).
• High Case: If cyber resilience adoption accelerates, driving 13.4% revenue growth while Commvault maintains 18% margins, returns could hit 104% total (18.8% annually).

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The range reflects execution on the Unity platform adoption, success in expanding enterprise SaaS customers, and the company’s ability to balance growth investments with profitability.

In low case, competitive pressure intensifies or customers slow cloud migration spending.

In high case, AI-driven data growth and ransomware concerns accelerate enterprise resilience investments, while Unity’s integrated approach drives faster cross-selling than expected.

How Much Upside Does Commvault Stock Have From Here?

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All it takes is three simple inputs:

• Revenue Growth
• Operating Margins
• Exit P/E Multiple

If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.

From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!