Key Takeaways:
- AI-Powered Growth: Zeta’s proprietary AI platform and data cloud are driving 28% organic revenue growth.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, ZETA stock could reach $21 by December 2027.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 34% from the current price of $15.46.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 17% growth over the next 1.9 years.
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Zeta Global Holdings Corp. (ZETA) delivered its 17th consecutive beat-and-raise quarter in Q3, demonstrating the power of its AI-first marketing platform.
Despite its stellar performance, ZETA stock is down 34% in the last 12 months.
CEO David Steinberg highlighted the company’s leadership in AI-powered marketing, announcing Athena—a conversational AI agent that serves as an intelligent operating system for clients’ businesses.
- This marks a major advancement in making complex marketing technology more accessible and effective.
- The company posted revenue of $337 million, up 28% year-over-year excluding political and LiveIntent contributions, representing an acceleration from prior quarters.
- The company now has 572 scaled customers (up 20% year-over-year), with customers adopting multiple use cases generating over 3x the revenue of single-use-case customers.
- Zeta’s pending acquisition of Marigold’s enterprise software business will add more than 100 enterprise customers, creating significant cross-sell opportunities.
Despite strong fundamentals and accelerating growth, Zeta trades at $15.46, offering substantial upside for investors who recognize the company’s position as a next-generation marketing cloud platform.
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What the Model Says for Zeta Global Stock
We analyzed Zeta Global’s transformation into an AI-powered marketing leader, with a proprietary data cloud and platform that outperforms legacy competitors.
- The company benefits from a powerful replacement cycle as enterprises move away from legacy marketing clouds. Zeta competes with Salesforce, Oracle, and Adobe.
- Independent analysis shows Zeta stands up 50% faster than competitors and delivers a 6:1 return on investment for clients.
- Zeta’s Data Cloud contains 242 million deterministic individuals in the U.S. and over 550 million globally.
- This data advantage, combined with AI capabilities built natively into the platform since 2017, creates a significant moat that competitors cannot easily replicate.
- The OneZeta strategy continues gaining traction. Customers using two or more use cases generate more than 3x the annual revenue of single-use case customers and demonstrate the highest net promoter scores.
- Management has accelerated this initiative under Chief Growth Officer Ed See with meaningful results.
Using a forecast of 25.4% annual revenue growth and 17.8% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $21 within 1.9 years. This assumes a 15.1x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression from Zeta’s historical P/E averages of 22.4x (one year) and 30.4x (three years). The lower multiple reflects near-term integration complexity from the Marigold acquisition and the company’s evolution from a high-growth startup to a sustainable enterprise.
The real value lies in capturing the enterprise marketing cloud replacement cycle while expanding multi-use case adoption across the customer base.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for ZETA stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 25.4%
Zeta’s growth centers on structural demand for AI-powered marketing technology. The company delivered 28% organic growth in Q3 2025, accelerating from 27% in Q2 and 26% in Q1.
Management provided initial 2026 guidance of $1.54 billion in revenue, representing 21% organic growth.
This excludes any contribution from the pending Marigold acquisition, which adds over 100 enterprise customers and significant cross-sell opportunities.
The company exited Zeta Live with a record pipeline and expects to close over $100 million in incremental business from the event.
Seven of the top ten industry verticals grew by more than 20% year-over-year, with particular strength in consumer-discretionary sectors such as retail, travel, and automotive.
2. Operating margins: 17.8%
Zeta has expanded adjusted EBITDA margins for 19 consecutive quarters, reaching 23.2% in Q3 2025.
The company targets an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30%+ by 2030.
Operating leverage continues improving as the platform scales.
Free cash flow conversion reached 60% in Q3, up from 48% in the prior-year quarter, as the company invested heavily in AI innovation and the Athena product.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 15.1x
The market values Zeta at 18.3x NTM earnings. We assume the P/E will compress to 15.1x over our forecast period as the company matures and demonstrates sustainable profitability.
This conservative multiple accounts for integration execution risk with Marigold and the company’s transition toward Rule of 40 performance.
As Zeta demonstrates consistent free cash flow generation and expands multi-use case adoption, the company should command a premium to legacy marketing cloud providers trading at similar multiples but with much slower growth.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Marketing technology companies face evolving competitive dynamics and execution risk. Here’s how Zeta Global stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2029:
- Low Case: If revenue growth moderates to 16.7% and net income margins compress to 13.8%, investors still see a 34.5% total return (7.9% annually).
- Mid Case: With 18.5% growth and 14.7% margins, we expect a total return of 80.3% (16.4% annually).
- High Case: If AI acceleration and OneZeta expansion drive 20.3% revenue growth while Zeta maintains 15.4% margins, returns could hit 135.3% total (24.7% annually).
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The range reflects execution on the Marigold integration, success expanding multi-use case adoption, and Athena’s ability to drive platform stickiness and expansion.
In the low case, enterprise sales cycles extend or competitive pressure increases.
In the high case, the marketing cloud replacement cycle accelerates faster than expected, Athena drives significant new customer wins, and Marigold cross-sell opportunities exceed expectations.
How Much Upside Does Zeta Global Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
