Key Stats for TJX Stock
- Current Price: $157.46
- Target Price (Mid): ~$211
- Street Target: ~$176
- Potential Total Return: ~34%
- Annualized IRR: ~6% / year
- Earnings Reaction: -1.10% (May 21, 2026)
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What Happened?
The TJX Companies (TJX), the world’s largest off-price retailer of apparel and home fashions, reported Q1 FY2027 results on May 20, 2026, that beat expectations across every metric. EPS of $1.19 topped the Street’s $1.02 estimate by 17%. Revenue of $14.32 billion beat the $14.01 billion consensus by 2.26%. Comparable sales grew 6%, well above plan, and pretax profit margin reached 12.0%, up 170 basis points year over year.
The stock surged on earnings day, then pulled back -1.10% the following session per TIKR data. That setup frames the real question: is TJX still a growth story at roughly 30x next twelve months earnings, or has the easy money already been made?
Every Division Grew and That Matters More Than the Headline Number
A 6% comp is easy to dismiss as a one-division story. It wasn’t. CEO Ernie Herrman, Chief Executive Officer and President, confirmed every division delivered strong comp growth and grew its customer base. HomeGoods led with a 9% comp and segment profit margin up 270 basis points to 12.9%. Marmaxx posted 6% comp growth with margin expanding 100 basis points to 14.7%. TJX Canada grew 7%. TJX International grew 4%, including the company’s first store in Spain, where customer response was described as “terrific.”
CFO John Klinger noted the comp “was driven equally by a higher average basket and an increase in customer transactions.” When asked if the shift toward transactions signaled a cautious consumer, his answer was simple: “across all geographies, income demographic bands, we’re very pleased.” Herrman confirmed growth “in all the income levels in Q1 across the board, remarkably consistent.”
Many retailers are seeing lower-income shoppers pull back while higher-income customers hold up. TJX gained across the full spectrum.
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The Supply Advantage Bears Keep Underestimating
Herrman described merchandise availability as “off the charts.” With over 1,400 buyers sourcing year-round, TJX has spent decades building the position of being vendors’ first call when they need to clear excess inventory. Herrman put it plainly: “The bigger we have become, the more availability we see.”
This inverts the typical retail risk model. When tariffs drive excess inventory into the channel, TJX’s supply of attractively priced branded merchandise improves. TJX has submitted for tariff refunds, but current guidance assumes zero benefit from those potential refunds, a free option that the market is not pricing. Inventory per store was up 7%, which management framed as a sign of excellent buying conditions, not a risk.
What the 7,000-Store Exchange Revealed
When UBS analyst Jay Sole asked whether TJX might raise its long-term store target above 7,000 locations, Herrman said: “At one point, you’ll see us revisit those numbers… we’re feeling pretty bullish.” He confirmed that joint ventures like the Grupo Axo partnership in Mexico and minority investments like Brands for Less in the Middle East are all under active consideration.
TJX currently operates 5,262 stores across 10 countries. Even at the existing 7,000-store target, there is room for more than 1,700 additional locations. A formal upward revision would be a re-rating event. Watch the annual shareholder meeting on June 9, 2026, for any early signal.
Sierra Trading Post is another underappreciated growth vehicle. Herrman described strong sales per store, a lifestyle format that skews toward higher-income male shoppers, and a long runway for brand awareness. “Five years from now,” he said, Sierra “will be a bigger player on the bottom line in TJX.” New customers across TJX’s banners are also skewing disproportionately toward Gen Z and millennials, a structural tailwind for long-term growth duration.
Valuation: Quality at a Premium
At $157.46, TJX trades at 19.96x NTM EV/EBITDA, a premium to Burlington Stores (BURL) at 16.35x and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) at 13.62x among Specialty Retail peers, per TIKR’s Competitors page. The Street’s mean price target of ~$176 implies about 11.5% upside.
The premium is supported by scale. TJX’s ~$61.6 billion in trailing twelve months revenue makes it the preferred vendor clearance partner, with consistent free cash flow generation with LTM levered FCF at $4.31 billion, and a buyback program now guided to $2.75 billion to $3.0 billion for fiscal 2027.
The risk is fuel. Management held back $0.07 of the $0.20 Q1 EPS beat from full-year guidance because diesel costs are assumed to stay elevated. If those costs ease, the $5.08–$5.15 full-year EPS guide has upside. If they climb further, gross margin faces pressure in the back half, where the fuel hedge benefit already flowed through in Q1.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $157.46
- Target Price (Mid): ~$211
- Potential Total Return: ~34%
- Annualized IRR: ~6% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model projects TJX reaching around $211 by January 31, 2031, implying a roughly 34% total return at an annualized rate of around 6% per year. The two primary revenue CAGR drivers are continued same-store sales growth and net new store additions, with international markets carrying the longest runway. The margin driver is merchandise margin improvement, sustained by strong vendor availability. Net income margin reaches approximately 9.4% in the mid case.
The upside case targets around $315 at an ~8% annualized IRR, driven by faster store growth and international scaling. The downside case of around $206 reflects prolonged fuel costs and comp growth falling below the 3%–4% full-year guide, which would compress the premium multiple.
Conclusion
Q2 FY2027 earnings in August 2026 are the next concrete read. The thresholds: comp sales at or above 2% on management’s 2%–3% guide, and gross margin holding at or above 30.9%. A second consecutive quarter of HomeGoods comps above 5% would confirm the margin recovery is structural. Below 2% comps, the premium multiple faces pressure.
The more important signal may come sooner. Any formal update to the 7,000-store target at the June 9, 2026, annual shareholder meeting or before Q2 earnings would shift the long-term investment thesis. Herrman’s answer was not a dismissal. It was a setup.
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Should You Invest in TJX?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
