Key Stats for NVIDIA
- Current Price: ~$220 (May 21, 2026)
- Q1 FY2027 Revenue: $81.6B, +85% YoY
- Q1 FY2027 Adjusted EPS: $1.87, +131% YoY
- Q2 FY2027 Revenue Guidance: ~$91B (+/- 2%)
- Q2 Gross Margin Guidance: ~75% (non-GAAP)
- TIKR Model Price Target: $486
- Implied Upside: ~121%
NVIDIA Beats $82B and Accelerates for the Third Straight Quarter as Blackwell Demand Goes Parabolic
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.6B, up 85% year-over-year and 20% sequentially, marking the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year acceleration.
Adjusted EPS came in at $1.87, up 131% from $0.81 in the same quarter one year prior.
Data Center revenue reached $75B, up 92% year-over-year and 21% sequentially, driven by Blackwell system deployments across hyperscalers, sovereign customers, and AI native cloud providers.
Within Data Center, the new reporting framework split results into Hyperscale ($38B, approximately 50% of Data Center) and ACIE, which covers AI Clouds, Industrial, and Enterprise ($37B, up 31% quarter-over-quarter).
Colette Kress, Executive Vice President and CFO, stated on the Q1 earnings call that “demand for GB300 NVL72 was particularly strong with frontier model builders and hyperscalers each having cumulatively deployed hundreds and thousands of Blackwell GPUs, marking the fastest product ramp in our company’s history.”
Edge Computing generated $6.4B, up 29% year-over-year, with robust Blackwell workstation demand partially offset by a modest decline in consumer demand from higher memory and system prices.
Free cash flow hit a record $49B, up from $35B in Q4, and the company announced an $80B share repurchase authorization on top of $39B remaining under the existing plan, alongside a dividend increase to $0.25 per share quarterly.
Q2 revenue guidance came in at $91B, plus or minus 2%, implying continued sequential growth driven primarily by Data Center.
Management excluded all China data center compute revenue from guidance, consistent with the prior quarter, citing uncertainty around import approvals following U.S. government licensing of H200 exports.
NVIDIA Stock Revenue Accelerates While Margins Hold Near Record Levels
NVIDIA stock has delivered eight consecutive quarters of sequential revenue growth, with the absolute dollar trajectory making the demand arc difficult to argue against.
Revenue moved from $30.0B in the quarter ended July 2024 to $35.1B, $39.3B, $44.1B, $46.7B, $57.0B, $68.1B, and $81.6B in the most recent quarter, with year-over-year growth reaccelerating from 56% to 85% over the final four periods.
Gross profit expanded from $22.6B to $61.2B across the same eight quarters, with gross margins compressing to 61% in April 2025 during the Blackwell transition before recovering fully to 75% in the most recent quarter.
Operating income moved from $18.6B to $53.5B over the period, with operating margins reaching 66% in the quarter ended April 2026, the highest in the trailing eight-quarter window.
Total operating expenses rose from $3.9B to $7.6B across the eight quarters, with R&D spending moving from $3.1B to $6.3B, but operating leverage held as revenue scaled faster than costs throughout.
Kress also stated on the Q1 earnings call that operating expenses were up 12% sequentially “primarily due to higher compensation and an increase in compute and infrastructure costs,” and guided Q2 non-GAAP operating expenses to approximately $8.3B.
TIKR’s $486 Target on NVIDIA Stock Requires 20% Revenue CAGR and Accepts the Multiple Compressing
TIKR’s valuation model prices NVIDIA stock at $486, implying 121% upside from the current price of ~$220, built on mid-case assumptions of 20% revenue CAGR and a 57% net income margin, with a P/E compression CAGR of (1.6%) embedded annually through the forecast horizon.
The annualized return on the mid case is 18% over 4.7 years, meaning the model does not require multiple expansion to reach the target.
The investment question NVIDIA stock now poses is whether a business growing at 85% today can sustain the 20% CAGR the mid case requires across a cycle that includes Vera Rubin ramp costs, China revenue excluded from guidance, and operating expenses guided to grow in the upper 40s percent for the full fiscal year.
The bull case and bear case for NVIDIA stock share the same Q1 result. The disagreement is over duration.
The bull case rests on product cycle extension and diversification: Blackwell is the fastest ramp in company history, Vera Rubin ships in Q3, and the fastest-growing Data Center segment is one NVIDIA serves almost without competition.
The bear case is not that the business is broken but that the current pace faces simultaneous pressure: China revenue is gone with no return date, costs are growing nearly 50% year-over-year, and the largest revenue bucket (Hyperscale at $38B) is already slowing relative to the rest of the business.
The synthesis is that NVIDIA stock is priced for a company that converts an 85% growth quarter into a 20% long-run CAGR without losing margin or multiple, which Q1 makes plausible but the next two quarters will either confirm or complicate.
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