Targa Resources Corp. (NYSE: TRGP) trades near $170/share after a volatile year. Soft midstream sentiment pressured shares earlier in 2025, but improving NGL volumes and steady margin recovery have helped stabilize the outlook. Despite recent swings, Targa remains one of the most important NGL infrastructure operators in the United States.
Recently, the company reported stronger volume trends across its NGL systems and highlighted improving demand from export hubs along the Gulf Coast. Targa also completed key system expansions that support higher throughput heading into 2026 and 2027. These updates show that management is executing well and strengthening the company’s competitive position even in an uneven energy environment.
This article reviews where Wall Street analysts expect TRGP to trade by 2027. We compiled consensus targets and valuation model results to map the stock’s likely path. These figures reflect current analyst expectations and are not TIKR’s own predictions.
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Analyst Price Targets Suggest Modest Upside
TRGP trades around $170/share, and the Street’s average target sits at $207/share, which implies about 22% upside. This places the stock in the modest upside category, where analysts expect steady gains rather than dramatic outperformance.
Street breakdown:
- High estimate: $261/share
- Low estimate: $188/share
- Median target: $201/share
- Ratings: 16 Buys, 5 Outperforms, 1 Hold
For investors, the takeaway is straightforward. Analysts see room for healthy appreciation supported by improving fundamentals. Expectations are not aggressive, but the targets reflect growing confidence that TRGP can continue compounding earnings through 2027.
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TRGP Growth Outlook and Valuation
The company’s outlook appears solid based on the model’s assumptions. Analysts expect TRGP to deliver steady growth over the next two years as volumes improve and operating performance strengthens.
- Revenue is projected to grow 9.2% through 2027
- Operating margins are expected to stay near 18.3%
- The valuation model uses an 18.2x forward P E
- Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model suggests about $225/share by 12/31/27
- That implies roughly 32% upside, or about 14% annualized returns
These numbers indicate TRGP can compound steadily through 2027. The stock does not rely on aggressive revenue growth to work. Instead, the setup depends on higher throughput, better system efficiency, and stable margins. For investors, TRGP looks like a steady compounder with upside potential that extends beyond the Street’s average target of $207/share.
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What’s Driving the Optimism?
Operational trends continue to improve. Targa is benefiting from stronger NGL volumes, increasing export demand, and better system utilization across its core assets. The company’s scale advantage also allows it to serve major customers more efficiently, which further strengthens its role in the NGL value chain.
Management has maintained consistent execution. Improvements in system efficiency and disciplined operations have supported earnings growth and helped the company build momentum. For investors, these strengths point to a business that is positioned to continue compounding value over the next several years.
Bear Case: Leverage and Volatility
The main concern for TRGP is leverage. While the company operates from a position of financial strength, its balance sheet can make the stock more sensitive to periods of market stress. This adds an element of uncertainty during times when sentiment shifts quickly across the energy sector.
Volatility is another factor investors should consider. Even with steady fundamentals, TRGP has shown the ability to move sharply in both directions. The stock can respond quickly to changes in broader energy market sentiment, even if the underlying business remains stable.
For investors, the downside case is centered more on market psychology and balance sheet sensitivity rather than operational weakness.
Outlook for 2027: What Could TRGP Be Worth?
Based on analysts’ average estimates, TIKR’s Guided Valuation Model suggests TRGP could trade near $225/share by 12/31/27. This represents about 32% total upside, or roughly 14% annualized returns from current levels.
This outlook reflects a business positioned for steady and sustainable growth. The model assumes continued improvements in throughput, operating performance, and profitability. To exceed this range, TRGP would likely need stronger export growth or additional system expansions that drive higher volumes.
For investors, TRGP offers a clear case for consistent compounding supported by solid fundamentals. The combination of modest analyst expectations and a more optimistic valuation model suggests the stock may still have room to outperform through 2027.
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