Key Takeaways for Starbucks Stock as of July 2026
- Starbucks closed its $13 billion China joint venture with Boyu Capital right after fiscal Q2 ended, moving the country’s retail business to a license model.
- Following the Q2 print, EPS Normalized hit $0.50, up 22% year over year and 15% above consensus, with the Street modeling 25% to 37% growth for five straight quarters ahead.
- Twelve analysts rate Starbucks stock Buy, four Outperform, sixteen Hold, two Underperform and two Sell, and the $106 mean target sits barely 1% above the $105 close.
- Priced by TIKR’s mid-case model at $147 by late 2030, Starbucks stock carries a 40% total return worth 8% annualized over 4.2 years.
Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Posts First EPS Growth Quarter in Two Years
Starbucks (SBUX) stock closed at $105 on July 15, 2026, two weeks ahead of the company’s fiscal third-quarter call on July 29. The move follows a fiscal second-quarter print that ended a two-year drought: EPS Normalized landed at $0.50, up 22% year over year and 15% above the $0.44 Street estimate.
Revenue drove that beat. It hit $9,531.50 million, up 9% year over year and 3% ahead of consensus, built on a 7.1% U.S. comparable sales gain and more than 4 percentage points of transaction growth, the strongest transaction print the company has posted in three years. EBIT climbed 24% year over year to $891million, topping the Street’s $781.29 million estimate by 14%.
CEO Brian Niccol called the quarter a turning point on the Q2 earnings call: “Q2 marked a milestone for the business. We delivered growth on both the top and bottom line for the first time in more than 2 years.” That growth extended internationally too, with all ten of the company’s largest markets, including China and Japan, posting positive comps for the first time in nine quarters.
Free cash flow told a rougher story. FCF fell to $91.80 million, a 67% miss against the $281.80 million Street estimate, as cash from operations dropped 94% year over year to $364.50 million. CFO Cathy Smith tied part of the swing to taxes accrued ahead of the China sale and to coffee and tariff costs that pushed North America’s operating margin down 170 basis points to 10.2%.
Starbucks closed its Boyu Capital joint venture for the China retail business shortly after quarter end, a deal Smith valued at more than $13 billion including licensing economics. The transaction shifts China to a license model, ends standalone China reporting, and is expected to be margin accretive going forward, with roughly half of its revenue flowing straight to operating income as the venture scales toward 1,500 county-level cities.
See how the $13 billion Boyu joint venture changes Starbucks China’s margin math on TIKR for free →
Wall Street Rates Starbucks Stock a Hold With Little Room Left to the Target
Wall Street’s consensus on Starbucks stock stands at twelve Buy ratings, four Outperforms, sixteen Holds, two Underperforms and two Sells as of July 15, 2026. The mean target price of $106 sits just 1% above the current $105 close, the tightest gap between price and target in the past year. That compression followed two straight quarters of upward revisions, from $99 in March to $106 in June, even as the stock itself climbed from $87 to $105 over the same stretch.
Analyst coverage has stayed steady at 31 estimates, meaning the flattening gap reflects price catching up to targets rather than the Street pulling back.
Wall Street Expects Starbucks Stock’s EPS Normalized to Grow 33% Next Quarter
Starbucks posted EPS Normalized of $0.50 in the quarter ended March 31, 2026, up 22% year over year and 15% ahead of the $0.44 Street estimate.
The Street models EPS Normalized of $0.67 for the quarter ending June 30, 2026, a 34% increase from the year-ago period, followed by another $0.67 for the September quarter, up 30% year over year.
That trajectory steepens into December, where consensus calls for $0.77 in EPS Normalized, up 37% year over year, before moderating to $0.63 in March 2027, still 26% above the prior-year quarter, and stepping back up to $0.80 by June 2027.
The next confirmation point lands July 29, when Starbucks reports fiscal third-quarter results and the Street finds out whether the 34% EPS Normalized growth already built into estimates actually shows up in the print.
TIKR Prices Starbucks Stock at $147, a 40% Return by 2030
TIKR’s mid-case model values Starbucks stock at $147.13 by late 2030, a 40% total return from the current price of $105.11, or 8.3% annualized over 4.2 years.
That annualized return sits above the mid-single-digit pace many mature consumer staples deliver, positioning Starbucks stock closer to a re-rating story than a defensive holding.
The target rests on the same margin recovery already visible in the numbers: EBIT up 24% year over year in the March quarter, a $2 billion cost program the company expects to execute through fiscal 2028, and a China joint venture structure management says will be margin accretive as it scales toward 1,500 county-level cities.
Add in the annualizing of Green Apron Service labor costs by August and easing coffee and tariff pressure in the back half of fiscal 2026, and the earnings base the model is pricing looks wider than what the Street’s flat targets currently reflect.
Should You Invest in Starbucks Corporation?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Starbucks Corporation stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Starbucks Corporation alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
