Key Stats for SoFi Technologies Stock
- Current Price: $15.85
- Target Price (Mid): $39.43
- Street Target: $25.03
- Potential Total Return: +148.8%
- Annualized IRR: 21.10% / year
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What Happened?
Few fintech stocks in 2026 have generated more debate than SoFi Technologies (SOFI).
The digital banking platform peaked at $32.73 in late 2025 after two consecutive years of strong gains, then hit a max drawdown of 52.96% by March 30, 2026.
Bulls say the selloff is an overreaction to a short report that independent analysts have questioned. Bears say credit risk and accounting uncertainty have not been fully priced in.
The key unresolved question: Does the business behind the declining stock price still justify owning it?
The most disruptive event of 2026 was Muddy Waters Research’s March 17 short report, which alleged that SoFi had a material misstatement of at least $312 million in unrecorded debt and compared its accounting practices to Enron.
SoFi responded the same day, calling the claims “misleading” and “inaccurate.” CEO Anthony Noto then bought 28,900 shares at an average of $17.32 that same day. Muddy Waters escalated its claims on March 30, warning of potential $1 billion in EBITDA restatements, but the stock’s muted response to the follow-up suggested institutional investors were skeptical of the allegations.
Per Fortune’s reporting, Mizuho analyst Don Dolev reviewed the Muddy Waters report and concluded it misunderstands or mischaracterizes key facts related to SoFi’s loan sale structure and discount rate.
SoFi has told Muddy Waters it is contemplating legal action over the report.
SoFi responded operationally as well.
On March 26, the company expanded its Loan Platform Business with new agreements totaling over $3.6 billion in personal loan delivery commitments.
On April 2, it launched SoFi Big Business Banking, a platform for enterprises to manage fiat and crypto through a single nationally chartered bank.
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Is SoFi Technologies Undervalued Today?
The disconnect between the stock and the business is hard to ignore. SoFi crossed $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time in Q4 2025, with full-year 2025 adjusted net revenue of $3.59 billion, up 37.8% year over year.
The company has beaten revenue estimates in each of the last five quarters. In Q4 2025, actual revenue came in at $1.01 billion against a consensus estimate of $982.39 million. On a GAAP basis, net income was $481.32 million in 2025, modestly below the $498.67 million in 2024, where the prior year included a non-recurring tax gain.
“2025 was a tremendous year and the fourth quarter was nothing short of exceptional, delivering more than $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time in our history,” said Anthony Noto, Chief Executive Officer of SoFi.
On the earnings call, Noto guided for at least 30% compounded annual revenue growth and 38% to 42% compounded annual EPS growth from 2025 to 2028.
SoFi operates three segments.
Lending generated $1.85 billion in operating revenue in 2025. Financial Services, which covers SoFi Money, SoFi Invest, SoFi Credit Card, and its crypto platform, grew from $821.51 million in 2024 to $1.54 billion in 2025.
The Technology Platform segment, which houses Galileo (a payments infrastructure business) and Technisys (a cloud-native core banking platform), contributed $450.21 million.
That segment is the bear case’s foothold: technology platform accounts declined 23% year over year due to a large client transition, and growth has lagged the rest of the business.
Upstart Holdings (UPST) trades at an NTM P/E of 11.28x and Ally Financial (ALLY) at 7.60x. SoFi’s NTM P/E of 26.81x is higher, but its two-year forward revenue CAGR of 26.2% and two-year forward EPS CAGR of 46.3% are substantially stronger than either peer. LendingClub (LC) trades at 8.27x forward earnings against a far slower growth profile.
The premium is defensible on growth alone; the question is whether it is defensible alongside active short-seller scrutiny.
On credit quality, the reported personal loan net charge-off rate was 2.80% annualized in Q4 2025, down 57 basis points year over year from Q4 2024.
Muddy Waters alleges the true rate, adjusted for delinquent loan sales before the 120-day charge-off threshold, is closer to 6.1%. SoFi has publicly disclosed that, including delinquent loan sales, the rate would be 4.4%.
Neither figure is alarming for a consumer lender at SoFi’s growth stage, but the uncertainty means the stock trades at a discount until results confirm the current credit picture.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $15.85
- Target Price (Mid): $39.43
- Potential Total Return: +148.8%
- Annualized IRR: 21.10% / year
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The TIKR mid case uses a 15.8% revenue CAGR as its growth driver. Two factors support it: continued member acquisition and cross-sell across SoFi’s 13.7-million-member base, with Financial Services expected to keep outpacing Lending as crypto and brokerage products scale; and the Loan Platform Business, which already committed over $3.6 billion in new delivery agreements in early 2026, generating fee income without retaining loan risk.
The margin driver is operating leverage, with the mid-case projecting net income margins expanding to 21.1% by 2030 as fixed infrastructure costs are spread across a larger revenue base. The primary risk is credit deterioration: if charge-off rates rise materially, fair value marks on the loan portfolio compress, and the margin expansion path stalls. The upside, if credit holds and Financial Services sustains its trajectory, is a stock approaching $39.43 by the end of 2030 at a 21.10% annualized return. The downside, if credit concerns escalate or accounting allegations carry any merit, is a stock that revisits its 52-week low of $8.60.
The Street’s mean target of $25.03, drawn from 20 analysts (5 Buys, 3 Outperforms, 11 Holds, 2 Underperforms, 2 Sells), implies 57.9% upside from $15.85. Even the more conservative Street view represents a meaningful gap from today’s price and reflects a consensus that believes the fundamental business is intact, but is withholding full growth multiples until the accounting questions are resolved.
Conclusion: Watch the Q1 2026 personal loan charge-off rate on April 29. If SoFi reports at or below the 2.80% level from Q4, the credit narrative stabilizes, and the re-rating case strengthens. If it rises materially, the bear case accelerates. At $15.85, the TIKR mid case prices in 148.8% upside to $39.43 by December 31, 2030, at a 21.10% annualized return. That return depends on credit holding and management delivering on its 2025-to-2028 targets. April 29 will begin to answer which scenario is playing out.
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Should You Invest in SoFi Technologies?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up SoFi Technologies, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track SoFi Technologies alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
